Koko WR Fantasy Projections

Here is the next installment of the Koko The Monkey's fantasy football projections. Wide receivers are ranked based on a regression from last year's stats.

These projections are intended to be establish the baseline minimum accuracy of projections as the most reasonably naive predictions. The general explanation of the system can be found in the post ranking quarterbacks.

WR fantasy performance is far simpler than QB fantasy performance. Receiving yards and touchdowns are the only driving factors. Rushing or kick returning yards are ignored in these WR projections. Receiving yards and TDs appear to regress at similar rates from year to year, so these projected rankings will likely be a straight regurgitation of last year's end-of-year rankings.

I included WRs with at least 20 receptions in a season in the analysis. Depending on how high the cutoff, or which stat you use (yards, games, receptions), the regression rate is different. In the end however, the overall rankings aren't significantly affected, and the projected points are only slightly different.



Wide Receivers don't appear to have any consistency in terms of fumbles or injuries. They average 0.05 fumbles per game, with guys who get a lot of receptions obviously having more opportunities. WRs play in an average of 14.3 games in a season regardless of how many they played the year before.

I've removed Burress and Harrison, but I didn't spend much time looking through the list to find guys who may have retired or who may already be on the IR.

Rank	Name	TDs	Yds	Fum	Pts/G	Proj Pts
1	Anquan Boldin	0.54	71.1	0.07	6.6	95.0
2	Larry Fitzgerald	0.47	72.8	0.05	6.4	91.3
3	Calvin Johnson	0.47	69.2	0.06	6.2	88.5
4	Andre Johnson	0.38	78.1	0.05	6.1	87.0
5	Steve Smith CAR	0.35	79.9	0.05	6.0	85.6
6	Greg Jennings	0.40	67.8	0.05	5.7	81.7
7	Roddy White	0.36	71.1	0.05	5.6	80.0
8	Randy Moss	0.45	57.4	0.06	5.5	78.1
9	Brandon Marshall	0.34	69.8	0.06	5.4	77.5
10	Terrell Owens	0.43	59.0	0.05	5.4	77.4
11	Antonio Bryant	0.36	66.2	0.05	5.3	76.5
12	Lance Moore	0.43	54.5	0.05	5.2	74.3
13	Marques Colston	0.36	61.0	0.05	5.1	73.3
14	Vincent Jackson	0.36	60.7	0.05	5.1	72.6
15	Reggie Wayne	0.33	62.4	0.05	5.0	71.9
16	Hines Ward	0.36	58.7	0.05	5.0	71.1
17	Dwayne Bowe	0.36	57.9	0.05	4.9	70.7
18	Kevin Walter	0.38	53.4	0.05	4.9	69.5
19	Bernard Berrian	0.36	55.8	0.05	4.8	69.2
20	Santana Moss	0.33	58.7	0.05	4.8	69.2
21	Justin Gage	0.38	52.3	0.05	4.8	68.7
22	Eddie Royal	0.32	58.7	0.05	4.7	67.8
23	Deion Branch	0.38	50.7	0.05	4.7	67.5
24	Derrick Mason	0.31	58.5	0.05	4.7	66.8
25	Donald Driver	0.31	57.6	0.05	4.6	66.4
26	Wes Welker	0.26	63.1	0.05	4.6	66.2
27	Laveranues Coles	0.36	51.6	0.05	4.6	66.1
28	Isaac Bruce	0.36	51.1	0.05	4.6	65.8
29	Muhsin Muhammad	0.31	54.3	0.05	4.5	63.9
30	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	0.29	55.8	0.05	4.5	63.7
31	Santonio Holmes	0.32	52.6	0.05	4.4	63.3
32	Lee Evans	0.26	57.8	0.05	4.4	62.3
33	Steve Breaston	0.26	57.3	0.05	4.4	62.2
34	Jerricho Cotchery	0.31	51.9	0.05	4.3	62.1
35	Matt Jones	0.25	57.6	0.05	4.3	61.6
36	Greg Camarillo	0.26	53.1	0.05	4.1	59.0
37	Braylon Edwards	0.26	52.5	0.05	4.1	58.8
38	DeSean Jackson	0.24	53.9	0.05	4.0	57.6
39	Chad Ochocinco	0.31	44.8	0.05	4.0	57.2
40	Torry Holt	0.26	49.7	0.05	4.0	56.7
41	Devery Henderson	0.26	49.6	0.05	4.0	56.5
42	Michael Jenkins	0.26	49.0	0.05	3.9	56.2
43	Anthony Gonzalez	0.29	44.8	0.05	3.9	55.3
44	Chris Chambers	0.33	39.9	0.05	3.9	55.2
45	Kevin Curtis	0.28	45.9	0.05	3.9	55.2
46	Donnie Avery	0.27	46.8	0.05	3.9	55.1
47	Malcom Floyd	0.31	41.5	0.05	3.8	54.8
48	Devin Hester	0.27	46.5	0.05	3.8	54.7
49	Ted Ginn Jr.	0.24	49.5	0.06	3.8	54.2
50	Mark Clayton	0.26	46.0	0.05	3.8	54.1
51	Antwaan Randle El	0.29	42.3	0.05	3.7	53.5
52	Amani Toomer	0.29	41.8	0.05	3.7	53.0
53	Nate Washington	0.26	43.6	0.05	3.7	52.4
54	Patrick Crayton	0.29	40.7	0.05	3.7	52.2
55	Josh Reed	0.22	47.4	0.05	3.6	51.6
56	Mark Bradley	0.29	39.1	0.05	3.6	51.2
57	Brandon Stokley	0.27	41.2	0.05	3.6	51.1
58	Dennis Northcutt	0.25	43.3	0.05	3.5	50.6
59	Bobby Wade	0.24	44.1	0.05	3.5	50.5
60	Bryant Johnson	0.26	40.5	0.05	3.5	50.2
61	Jerheme Urban	0.29	37.0	0.05	3.5	49.7
62	Brandon Lloyd	0.26	39.9	0.05	3.5	49.6
63	Domenik Hixon	0.24	42.4	0.05	3.5	49.5
64	Koren Robinson	0.25	40.1	0.05	3.4	49.2
65	Josh Morgan	0.29	36.1	0.05	3.4	49.1
66	Ike Hilliard	0.29	36.1	0.05	3.4	48.9
67	Hank Baskett	0.27	37.7	0.05	3.4	48.5
68	Roy Williams	0.27	37.4	0.05	3.4	48.3
69	Johnnie Lee Higgins	0.29	34.0	0.05	3.3	47.5
70	Steve Smith NYG	0.22	41.3	0.05	3.3	47.0
71	Davone Bess	0.22	40.8	0.05	3.2	46.4
72	Chansi Stuckey	0.27	34.6	0.05	3.2	46.3
73	Jabar Gaffney	0.24	37.7	0.05	3.2	46.2
74	Rashied Davis	0.24	36.8	0.05	3.2	45.5
75	Reggie Williams	0.26	33.9	0.05	3.2	45.5
76	Bobby Engram	0.19	42.6	0.05	3.2	45.5
77	Michael Clayton	0.22	39.5	0.05	3.2	45.4
78	Jason Avant	0.24	35.3	0.05	3.1	44.7
79	Arnaz Battle	0.19	41.2	0.05	3.1	44.6
80	James Jones	0.23	36.6	0.05	3.1	44.6
81	Shaun McDonald	0.22	36.8	0.06	3.1	43.8
82	Brandon Jones	0.22	37.0	0.05	3.1	43.7
83	Jordy Nelson	0.24	34.0	0.05	3.0	43.5
84	Dane Looker	0.25	32.7	0.06	3.0	43.3
85	Jason Hill	0.24	32.2	0.05	2.9	42.1
86	Justin McCareins	0.19	37.8	0.06	2.9	41.9
87	Harry Douglas	0.22	32.3	0.05	2.8	40.3
88	Roscoe Parrish	0.22	31.0	0.05	2.8	39.8
89	Antonio Chatman	0.19	31.9	0.05	2.6	37.8
90	Brian Finneran	0.22	26.8	0.05	2.5	36.2