Who 'Dat Gonna' Kick Onside to Start the Second Half?
Congratulations to the Saints and their fans for a great championship season. Head coach Sean Payton made three courageous decisions on the way to New Orleans' first Super Bowl trophy. Toward the end of the 1st half, he called for run on 4th and goal from the 1. Payton decided to try on onside kick to open the second half, perhaps the game's most aggressive call. And after scoring the go-ahead touchdown in the 4th quarter, he called for the 2-point conversion. Let's take a look at all three of those decisions. Courageous, yes; but did he have the numbers on his side?
The 4th and 1
According to the expected points model, it's clear that a team should go for it on 4th down and goal from anywhere inside the 6. But with time running out in the 2nd quarter, it might be better to turn to Win Probability (WP). With just under 2 minutes to go and a 4th and goal on the 1, the WP analysis agrees with the go-for-it call. FGs are successful 99% of the time, and overall, a decision to kick makes the score 10-6, giving the Saints a 0.32 WP. A successful TD ties the game, giving the Saints a 0.48 WP. A failed attempt gives the Colts a 1st down at their own 1 with 1:55 to play in the half, giving the Saints a 0.26 WP. It was a certainly a high-stakes play.