If so, your dreams may have been smashed.  The talented and promising running back that many thought would carry the load for the Bucs this year may now be part of a complicated platoon that includes Cadillac Williams.

That Rotoworld article has a good breakdown of what could be one of the more important fantasy football-related moves this week.  With a new trend of players taking one or even two wide receivers at the start of their fantasy football draft, Ward has frequently been though of as a solid RB3, and even an RB2 for those more desperate.

Ward’s average draft position has not been steady as drafters have tried to pin down his role this year.  It’s alternated between the late fourth round and the mid-fifth round for 12-team leagues.

Currently at an ADP of 4.11, expect that graph to dip back down again, perhaps as low as the 6th or 7th round.  When you hear the coach describe the running back carries distributed in a 2-2-1 ratio…

“..the starter will get two series, followed by another back playing the next two series and a third getting a single series.”

it’s time to run the other direction. Guys like McFadden and Larry Johnson have their own question marks, but they should at least get the playing time they need to play a valuable role on your roster.

The Twitter feed on the news page now includes new NFL players:

• Andre Johnson
• Pierre Thomas
• Ray Rice
• Greg Olsen
• Dustin Keller
• Darren McFadden
• Reggie Bush
• Eddie Royal

Also, to avoid Chad or T.O. from clogging up the whole page with their massive tweets, it’s now limited to the 5 most recent tweets per person. That’s resulted in a better mix of players’ tweets.

The fantasy football news aggregation page is back up after being down for over a day.  There had been some problems on Twitter’s end last week that caused the Twitter feed to be disabled, but everything is running smoothly now.

The top two posts from Fantasy Football Chatter right now are articles from 12-step drop on revised QB rankings with Favre back in the mix, and a great summary from Fantasy Football Fools on Broncos, Bills, Bears and Bowe.

Then there is of course the live Twitter feed of select fantasy-relevant NFL players.  Here is Matt Hasselbeck snapping a picture of one of his offensive lineman on a boat:

This week created a lot of churn in the quarterback rankings. In order to get a grip on all of it for your draft, make sure to review the latest ADP for quarterbacks.

For convenience, here it is below.  This includes data from 12-team drafts on only Thursday, August 20th. Keep in mind that these rankings could change quickly though depending on how the preseason plays out.

New King

By the slimmest of margins, Tom Brady is neck-and-neck with Drew Brees, and possibly slightly ahead. Not much of a surprise given Brady’s solid game that has eased fears of his knee injury lingering.

Sick of Favre Yet?

Well, there are enough drafters who aren’t sick of him.  Brett Favre is going as the #14 quarterback right now, right after Roethlisberger and before Hasselbeck.  For 12-team leagues, he’s beeing treated as a high-end QB#2.

The good news is that if you had been targeting Hasselbeck as a sleeper backup quarterback, your chances of drafting him have increased a bit.  The bad news is that if you drafted Sage Rosenfels while Favre was “retired,” you’re probably a little ticked off right now.

Hope for Vick?

Vick is getting some attention, and as the 22nd QB off the board, some people are taking a chance on him as a backup.

Poor Bulger

With the news of Marc Bulger injuring his finger, he has dropped from the 24th QB to the 29th.  He is currently targeted to be back by the regular season opener, but this injury puts a dent in his and the rest of the Rams’ fantasy value. He isn’t an amazing quarterback, but he is a league above his replacement, Kyle Boller.

More Changes to Come…

The only constant in the NFL is that nothing is constant.  Between injuries, comebacks, and competition, the quarterback you are excited about drafting today may be yesterday’s news tomorrow. A mock draft or two is a great way to stay on top of the trends and ahead of your competition.

Tom Brady had a strong first outing against the Eagles, and it may have earned him the top spot among fantasy quarterbacks.

In 10-team ADP, Brady just beat out Drew Brees using data from drafts on August 19th.

That last column is their overall draft position.  Brady is going at 15.0 on average and Brees at 15.2.  A virtual tie. In 12-team leagues it’s the exact opposite with Brees a hair ahead of Brady.

Dead Heat

It’s a close race between the two right now, but another strong preseason game from Brady may solidify his top spot.

On Draft Day Eve, visions of 50 TDs are floating in fantasy players’ heads…

Due to the high demand and the draft rooms filling up very quickly, the drafts have now increased from one every 45 seconds to one every 30 seconds. That’s an increase from 80 drafts an hour to 120 drafts an hour.

So far they’re still filling up, but the wait time is cut down to about 5 minutes or less. If they start filling up too quickly, more can be added.

The Philadelphia Eagles took a chance on Michael Vick. Will you?

From the Eagles

Andy Reid had said that Vick will contribute this year.  He said that both McNabb and Kolb’s jobs are not in jeopardy, and that with Vick’s talent with running and throwing, he’ll find some way to get him on the field.

Vick’s ADP

Right now, Vick is being drafted in the 13th round of 12-team mock drafts.  This data includes some drafts that occurred before the signing was announced, so this position may change within the next few days.  He’s going between Joe Flacco and Brady Quinn right now.

Worth a flier?

It’s hard to say if his value will go up or down the news.  It sounds like the Eagles are looking forward to getting him on the field, but he’s definitely not going to be a starting QB this year.  He may end up as more of a tight end or be active in Wildcat-type plays.

He is still likely to be suspended from games for the first 5 weeks of the season, so his value has a ceiling.  Vick may have a greater fantasy value to you by distracting people in your draft who haven’t paid much attention in the past couple of years.  Cross your fingers that one of your friends grabs him in the 5th round.

What goes through your head when you draft your WR3?  Are you safely filling a roster spot or plotting to find a diamond in the rough?

A lively discussion at Fantasy Football Cafe asked this exact question.  It started out by getting feedback on late round WRs and by page 3 evolved into a philosophical debate. The thread did such a great job covering each side that it’s worth quoting parts here:

Risk and Reward Strategy

In favor of a bold strategy was Kensat30, a longtime member of the Cafe:

“Derrick Mason and Donald Driver are the model of consistency. Do I want them as my WR3? Hell no.
…Devin Hester and Ted Ginn aren’t bye week players, those guys are potentially the next Javon Walker or Steve Smith.”

This strategy views every pick as an opportunity to draft an amazing, championship-winning player.  Taking a player with a low ceiling means missing a chance at a big winner.  In shallow leagues, waiver wire players can often fill in respectably if a risky player totally bombs.

Steady Freddy Strategy

In rebuttal, mattUTD20 replied:

“I think it is pretty foolish just to write off the older guys who have been around the block a few times because of whatever misconception you have of them. Too many people spend too much of their time looking for that pipe dream WR1 in the 10th round.”

The cold-hard facts show that it’s unlikely that a given player in the 10th round will turn into a star. That’s why they’re in the 10th round to begin with.  If you draft your WR3 trying to get a WR1, you may end up with a zero instead.

ADP Comparision

Here is a comparison of the ADP trends of some old guys (Mason and Driver) versus some young guys (Harvin and Ginn) that can all be had in the 8th/9th round of 12-team drafts:

Harvin is the only player moving, but he’ll likely stop in the 8th round for now.  If he makes some big flashy plays this preseason, his value could climb even more.

It is a little odd to see players on such opposite ends of the risk spectrum so close together in ADP.  There is definitely more upside to the younger players, but it requires skill and luck to actually land a great wide receiver who pans out.

To Each His Own

Risk is a big factor in fantasy football, and it should be managed with care.  It’s important to think about which strategy you think will work best for you, because drafts can be won and lost by late round picks.

There is a minor buzz around Eddie Royal these days.  Partly because he’s been playing well, and partly because of doubts surrounding Brandon Marshall.  Marshall wasn’t even listed as one of the top 3 receivers on Denver’s most recent depth chart.  His leg injury and the recent talk that Eddie Royal will be taking a bigger role in the offense have kept him from participating fully at practice.

Looking at the average draft position for both receivers, it appears that Royal is creeping up a bit.  For 12-team drafts, Marshall is going at 4.02 while Royal is being drafted at 5.10.

Ever since Marshall’s blog post vaguely declaring that it is “time for a change”, the trade rumors have been holding back his value relative to his actual talent.  Throw in an injury that has sidelined him since August 2, and it is only a matter of time before his value starts to drop.  Fantasy owners are going to want to see some progress both with his leg and with getting along with his team (whichever one he ends up with).

It’s likely that Royal will continue to climb in the rankings.  He showed a lot of promise last year going for 980 yards and 5 TDs.  Even though Orton is less talented than Cutler, the porous Denver defense will likely keep the offense in a lot of passing situations.

Wide receivers are already hard to predict.  Throw in huge lineup changes to the team and you make it even more difficult to guess how a player might perform this year.

Two such players with huge question marks by their names this year are Roy Williams and Chad Ocho Cinco.  They both happen to be going in the mid-fourth round for 12-team drafts at 4.03 and 4.05 respectively.  Below are their ADP trends since the NFL draft this year.

With T.O. leaving a huge hole to fill in Dallas, Roy Williams has all the opportunities in the world to step up.  Things seemed to be shaky at first, but there are reports that Romo and Williams are starting to click.

Chad Ocho Cinco is, well, just being Chad.  Although he’s entertaining and active online, there are concerns about his effort level, Carson Palmer’s health, and the absence of T.J. Houshmandzadeh.  Coles should do well to take some heat off of Chad, but he’s anything but a sure thing this year.