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Cold weather may be a ways off, but the idea of heating a home may give some New Yorkers the chills. With home heating oil prices about 33 percent less than they were this time last year, the big question is how low can they go?

"Nobody can say in any certainty if this is a good price, if this is the ceiling, if this is the floor. Nobody knows," says CEO John Maniscalco of the New York Oil Heating Association.

Maniscalco says locking in a price is basically playing the market, and is a bet that the price will go up, and save the buyer a bundle. Yet it can also work the opposite way. Last year, many people locked in oil rates at over $4 in early September, only to see prices drop below $3 in a matter of weeks.

Once the price changes, experts say buyers can't renegotiate with their oil company.

"When you make a deal with the company to buy X amount of gallons for X amount of price, they go out and purchase those gallons so everybody is locked in and secure," says Maniscalco. "If the market goes down, consumers aren't happy, but the oil company still has to buy those gallons."

Consumers leary of locking in oil prices do have other choices. A cap price plan costs more but sets a ceiling on oil rates, or homeowners can pay as they go and ride the fluctuations in the market as they come.

Markets costs are hard to control, but consumption is easily handled. One of the easiest ways to lower heating bill is to lower the thermostat.

"Every 24 hours that you have the thermostat set back one degree, you can save 3 percent on your energy bill," says Sharon Griffith, a project manager for the New York State Energy Research and Development Corporation.

NYSERDA officials also suggest giving heating systems a tune up before the season starts to they can run more effectively.

Efficiency also pays, since upgrading insulation or purchasing new windows can reduce energy bills and also qualify purchasers for a federal tax deduction of up to $1,500, or even a cash rebate from NYSERDA.

"We will give you 10 percent. So if you spend $5,000, we will send you a check for $500 when you're done," says Griffith.

For more information on these incentives, visit getenergysmart.org.