It has been years, maybe since Spectacular Bid in 1979, that we’ve had a Kentucky Derby favorite as overwhelming as, say, Rachel Alexandra was in yesterday’s Kentucky Oaks. She won so easily – her final margin of 20-plus lengths doubled the Oaks record – that she brought to mind what happened exactly a decade ago, when Silverbulletday was smashing in the Oaks a day before the longshot Charismatic beat a so-so crop of colts in the Derby.

At the time I felt that had trainer Bob Baffert run Silverbulletday in the Derby instead of the Oaks, she would have won. And today I feel that had trainer Hal Wiggins opted for the Derby with Rachel Alexandra, the filly would have been extremely tough for this bunch of colts to beat.

That opinion could change if, say, Dunkirk wins the Derby in a way that indicates he’s worth his $3.7 million sales tag. Or if Pioneerof The Nile puts Baffert in the Derby winner’s circle for a fourth time. Or if the racing gods give trainer Larry Jones a bittersweet payback for the anguish he suffered last year when his filly Eight Belles suffered a freak breakdown and had to be destroyed only minutes after finishing second to Big Brown in the Derby.

As of the moment, though, I don’t see anybody in the Derby who has come close to showing the ability that Rachel Alexandra demonstrated yesterday. Jockey Calvin Borel never even had to shake the reins. He used sat there, statue-like, and enjoyed the second most satisfying ride of his life (the first, of course, was his 2007 Derby win aboard Street Sense).

It was a sweet victory that will get even sweeter for those who bet Rachel Alexandra with Chocolate Candy in the Oaks-Derby double.

The way I see this Derby, the key horse in this Derby field is Pioneerof The Nile, who held off Chocolate Candy’s late charge to win the Santa Anita Derby. It was the colt’s fourth straight victory since coming under Baffert’s care. And yet the handicapping gurus mostly are writing him off in the Derby because their speed figures tell them he’s too slow to win.

But think about this: Neither I Want Revenge (a Saturday morning scratch) or Papa Clem could be him on Santa Anita’s artificial track, so they left California to try their luck on the dirt in New York and Arkansas, respectively. Both immediately stepped way up and galloped their way into the Derby picture.

I Want Revenge was particularly impressive in winning the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, breaking last from the gate and overcoming all sorts of trouble to fight through the pack and win. That effort made him the morning-line Derby favorite over co-second choices Pioneerof The Nile and Dunkirk.

Yet my question is this: Why can’t Pioneerof The Nile make the same jump forward on the dirt as I Want Revenge and Papa Clem did? His workouts at Churchill indicate he loves the track here. In fact, Baffert says he seems to like it better than the artificial track at Santa Anita.

If that’s the case, why wouldn’t he dominate I Want Revenge and Papa Clem as easily in Kentucky as he did in California? I think he will.

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Friesan Fire initially was thought to be Jones’ second-stringer to Old Fashioned, the early Derby favorite. But when an injury in Arkansas knocked Old Fashioned out of the Derby, Friesan Fire stepped up with two big wins in Louisiana, the last coming over Papa Clem on a sloppy track in the Louisiana Derby.

I expect him to be right there at the finish – and if he wins, the entire racing world will be happy for Jones, who handled the Eight Belles tragedy with extraordinary class. Nevertheless, most of the sentimental betting money will go to Bluegrass Stakes winner General Quarters, the one-horse stable who’s owned, trained, and groomed by Tom McCarthy, a 75-year-old former school principal.

Nothing would make me happier than to see McCarthy win – and I believe he has a legitimate shot. However, there’s also a chance he’ll finish behind Hold Me Back, the improving colt who finished second to him in the Blue Grass. Hold Me Back is trained by Bill Mott, who has won more races at Churchill than any trainer ever. However, Mott has never won the Derby, at least partly because he hasn’t pursued it avidly.

If you want to play a “law of averages” exacta box, you should use Mott’s colt with the three horses trained by Todd Pletcher and the two owned by Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum’s Godolphin Racing Stable. All three have had so much success in other races that they’re bound to win a Derby sooner or later.

Sheik Mohammed is one of the most stubborn men in racing. He seems bound and determined to prove that it’s possible to win the Kentucky Derby while racing in Dubai instead of America.

He ran his two Derby horses, Desert Party and Regal Ransom, in the U.S. as 2-year-olds, then took them back to Dubai and used his own race, the UAE Derby, as their last Derby prep race. Although Regal Ransom upset his stablemate that day, most handicappers believe Desert Party is easily the better of the two.

My problem is that I’m just as stubborn as the Sheik. I don’t believe you can win the Kentucky Derby without at least one 3-year-old prep race in America.

A lot of the so-called “experts” like the Pletcher-trained Dunkirk, a lightly raced colt who comes into the Derby having the possibility of being a precocious superstar, much like Barbaro in 2006 and Big Brown last year.

In his last race, Dunkirk was a hard-charging second to Quality Road in the Florida Derby – and Quality Road might have been the Derby favorite had he not suffered quartercrack problems that forced trainer Jimmy Jerkens to take him out of contention.

Pletcher aspires to replace his mentor, D. Wayne Lukas, as king of the mega-trainers who have stables everywhere. However, Pletcher will fall woefully short unless he begins winning some Triple Crown races. His Derby record is 0-for-21 and counting. Besides Dunkirk, he has two others entered today, but neither Advice nor Join in the Dance seems to be anywhere close to Dunkirk.

I’m buying into the Dunkirk hype, but only to a point. I’m boxing him with Friesan Fire, General Quarters, Pioneerof The Nile, and Chocolate Candy. And I’m picking Chocolate Candy to win it all because (a) I loved the way he finished in the Santa Anita Derby, (b) he loves the mud and today’s track could be off, (c) he has the pedigree to get a mile and a quarter, and (d) jockey Mike Smith is the most experienced Derby rider in the field.

Finally, there’s trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who has dominated Northern California racing for years. He also has a touching human-interest story. His wife is home being treated for cancer. Like Mott and Pletcher, he has accomplished enough as a trainer to deserve a Kentucky Derby.

Besides, what goes better with red roses than chocolate candy?