Updated March 14
Only two days left, and there are a lot of teams sitting uncomfortably on the fence (is there a comfortable way to sit on a fence?).
Baylor, Tulsa and Southern California will try to steal bids from the bottom of the at-large pool in conference championship games. Temple and Duquesne play for the A-10 title, and that game will steal a bid as well. Although this bracket doesn't show it, it's possible that the bid stolen there will be Dayton's.
San Diego State may also be trying to steal a bid when it plays Utah for the Mountain West title. The Aztecs' strong performance in the league and down the stretch here may be enough to get them in anyway. They are shown as a No. 9 seed in this bracket, but that doesn't mean they are comfortably in the field. That is based on a prediction that they will beat Utah.
Maryland picked up a huge, résumé-building win over Wake Forest and now gets a shot at Duke. The Terrapins aren't in yet either, but beating the Blue Devils should seal the deal.
The SEC could also squeeze another team into the field. Semifinalists LSU and Tennessee are already in, but either Auburn, the hottest team in the league, or Mississippi State is capable of winning its way in. For Auburn, beating Tennessee would help its at-large credentials.
Reminders
• This projection is unique among those you'll see because it is based on what I think the final bracket will look like, not necessarily what it would look like if the tournament started today. Of course, the later we get into the season, the more this will resemble an as-of-today bracket.
• For each conference, the projected champion is the team I expect to win the conference's automatic bid. That is not necessarily the team that won the regular-season title. For example, I have Tennessee picked to win the SEC tournament, even though LSU won the regular season.
• As you go down the bracket and follow the teams from a particular conference, you can assume the seeding will roughly match the order they finished in the conference standings. Non-conference performance can sometimes override that, as well as the conference tournament.
• Sometimes a team has to be moved up or down a spot from its true seed to follow bracketing rules, especially the one regarding the separation of teams from the same conference. Typically, the more teams a league has in the bracket, the more seed swapping has to be done to make them fit. The committee will also move teams up and down solely to allow teams to play closer to home. You see that kind of thing more often at the bottom of the bracket.
• Even though North Carolina is the overall No. 1 seed in this bracket, the opening-round winner was assigned to play Louisville because it is the highest seed at a Friday-Sunday location.
The Seeds
Last four in: Creighton, Dayton, Maryland, St. Mary's.
First four out: Auburn, Penn State, USC, UNLV.
Quick Breakdown
| Conference | Bids | Conference | Bids | Conference | Bids | Conference | Bids |
| ACC | 7 | Big 12 | 6 | MEAC | 1 | Southern | 1 |
| America East | 1 | Big West | 1 | Missouri Valley | 2 | Southland | 1 |
| Atlantic Sun | 1 | Colonial | 1 | Mountain West | 3 | Summit | 1 |
| Atlantic 10 | 3 | C-USA | 1 | Northeast | 1 | Sun Belt | 1 |
| Big East | 7 | Horizon | 2 | Ohio Valley | 1 | SWAC | 1 |
| Big Sky | 1 | Ivy | 1 | Pac-10 | 4 | WAC | 1 |
| Big South | 1 | MAAC | 1 | Patriot | 1 | West Coast | 2 |
| Big Ten | 7 | MAC | 1 | SEC | 2 | | |
Detailed Breakdown
| ACC (7) |  | Projected champ: North Carolina | | At-large: Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Maryland, Wake Forest | | On the fence: Miami, Virginia Tech | | | | AMERICA EAST (1) |  | Projected champ: Binghamton | | At-large: None | | On the fence: None | |
| ATLANTIC SUN (1) |  | Projected champ: East Tennessee State | | At-large: None | | On the fence: None | | | | ATLANTIC 10 (3) |  | Projected champ: Temple | | At-large: Dayton, Xavier | | On the fence: None | |
| BIG EAST (7) |  | Projected champ: Louisville | | At-large: Connecticut, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia | | On the fence: Providence | | | | BIG SKY (1) |  | Projected champ: Portland State | | At-large: None | | On the fence: None | |
| BIG SOUTH (1) |  | Projected champ: Radford | | At-large: None | | On the fence: None | | | | BIG TEN (7) |  | Projected champ: Michigan State | | At-large: Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin | | On the fence: Penn State | |
| BIG 12 (6) |  | Projected champ: Missouri | | At-large: Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M | | On the fence: Baylor | | | | BIG WEST (1) |  | Projected champ: Cal State Northridge | | At-large: None | | On the fence: None | |
| COLONIAL (1) |  | Projected champ: VCU | | At-large: None | | On the fence: None | | | | CONFERENCE USA (1) |  | Projected champ: Memphis | | At-large: None | | On the fence: None | |
| HORIZON (2) |  | Projected champ: Cleveland State | | At-large: Butler | | On the fence: None | | | | IVY LEAGUE (1) |  | Projected champ: Cornell | | At-large: None | | On the fence: None | |
| MAAC (1) |  | Projected champ: Siena | | At-large: None | | On the fence: None | | | | MAC (1) |  | Projected champ: Buffalo | | At-large: None | | On the fence: None | |
| MEAC (1) |  | Projected champ: Morgan State | | At-large: None | | On the fence: None | | | | MISSOURI VALLEY (2) |  | Projected champ: Northern Iowa | | At-large: Creighton | | On the fence: None | |
| MOUNTAIN WEST (3) |  | Projected champ: San Diego State | | At-large: BYU, Utah | | On the fence: New Mexico, UNLV | | | | NORTHEAST (1) |  | Projected champ: Robert Morris | | At-large: None | | On the fence: None | |
| OHIO VALLEY (1) |  | Projected champ: Morehead State | | At-large: None | | On the fence: None | | | | PAC-10 (4) |  | Projected champ: Arizona State | | At-large: California, UCLA, Washington | | On the fence: Arizona, USC | |
| PATRIOT LEAGUE (1) |  | Projected champ: American | | At-large: None | | On the fence: None | | | | SEC (2) |  | Projected champ: Tennessee | | At-large: LSU | | On the fence: Auburn, Florida, South Carolina. | |
| SOUTHERN (1) |  | Projected champ: Chattanooga | | At-large: None | | On the fence: Davidson | | | | SOUTHLAND (1) |  | Projected champ: Stephen F. Austin | | At-large: None | | On the fence: None | |
| SUMMIT LEAGUE (1) |  | Projected champ: North Dakota State | | At-large: None | | On the fence: None | | | | SUN BELT (1) |  | Projected champ: Western Kentucky | | At-large: None | | On the fence: None | |
| SWAC (1) |  | Projected champ: Alabama State | | At-large: None | | On the fence: None | | | | WAC (1) |  | Projected champ: Utah State | | At-large: None | | On the fence: None | |
| WEST COAST (2) |  | Projected champ: Gonzaga | | At-large: St. Mary's | | On the fence: None | | | |
