Israeli elections: votes counted but winner unknown

MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti commentator Maria Appakova) - After the preliminary results of the parliamentary elections held in Israel on February 10 were announced, two parties simultaneously claimed the victory. The ruling Kadima Party is only one percent ahead of the opposition Likud, and the former has one more seat in the Knesset.

Now everything depends not on the number of the votes collected but on the parties' ability to form a government coalition by getting a majority (at least 61 votes) in the Knesset.

The results of the elections show that Israel has abruptly moved to the right. It is not sure that it is possible to reach peaceful settlement with the Palestinians and other Arab neighbors by compromise. At the same time, Israel does not dismiss the idea of concessions out of hand. Its citizens want peace and security but are not sure how to achieve them.

Five parties - Kadima, Likud, Avoda, Yisrael Beiteinu, and Shas - will be the key players in the Knesset. By Israeli tradition, the president grants the right to form a government to the leader of the party that has received a majority of votes. Under the circumstances, the right of the first attempt belongs to Tsipi Livni, but Likud Party leader Benjamin Netanyahu can work in parallel with her. This will not be an easy battle for Livni. Having replaced Prime Minister Ehud Olmert as the Kadima Party leader last fall, she had already had an opportunity to form and lead a government coalition, but did not make it.

Now her chances are even slimmer. Compared to the previous elections in 2006, Kadima remained in the same place, while its coalition partner Avoda sustained considerable losses - six seats in the Knesset. In the meantime, the opposition Likud Party has more than doubled its presence in the Knesset. Nonetheless, Livni still has a chance. Apart from Avoda, she has to get the support of all three Arab parties with a total of 11 seats, which is practically impossible, and to draw Shas over to her side. But all of them are unreliable allies. This is why Livni urged the leaders of all major Israeli parties, Kadima, Likud, and Avoda, to set up a national unity government. Together, they could form a centrist government and avoid dependence on minor parties. Although Yisrael Beiteinu surpassed Avoda, it still remains a second-echelon party. Politicians bargain with such parties but will be glad to get rid of them if there is an opportunity.

However, for the time being Avoda has not clearly expressed its readiness to join a government coalition. Likud leader Netanyahu has considerably improved his position, and it is pointless for him to give up his chance to become prime minister and join coalition with Livni. He would rather head this coalition himself. For the time being, he is trying to form a coalition of right-wing parties although like Kadima, they may fail to receive a majority it the Knesset. To become prime minister, he should draw to his side either Avoda or Shas although it is doubtful that both parties will join a coalition with the far right Yisrael Beiteinu. For Avoda this would mean giving up its ideology, while Shas would have to renounce all of its election statements. On the eve of the elections, Shas spiritual leader Rabbi Ovadia Yosef said that everyone who votes for Avigdor Lieberman's party will "give power to the Satan." Nonetheless, Shas has long proved its ability to bargain and go back on its words.

A big game has started in Israel. To some extent, it is similar to the Oriental bazaar although Israel only has two options - either a stable government with the participation of Likud, Avoda, and Kadima, or a government in alliance with minor parties on the brink of daily collapse, which will have to endlessly compromise without making progress on any issues, including peace settlement. In either case, it does not matter whether Livni or Netanyahu heads the government.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.