Instead of going to Napa for a massage and then going out to eat, the engineering consultant plans to clean the house, make his wife dinner, stay home and rent movies. "I'm saving my lunch money," said Heard as he picked up some lilies, mums and tulips at the Flower Mart in San Francisco Friday. While he hasn't personally been hit hard by the economic downturn, he said, "It's just hard for me to buy $100 worth of roses for my wife while my next-door neighbor lost his job."

Valentine's Day spending is expected to drop this year to $28.6 billion, or 4.8 percent below last year, according to IBISWorld Inc.

Considered more of a discretionary holiday than Christmas or birthdays, the day will be especially vulnerable to the tough economic climate. Retailers already have struggled through one of the worst holiday seasons in decades.

"Tightening household budgets will make it difficult to justify splurging on loved ones this year, especially for couples with children who have just had to budget for the Christmas holiday," said George Van Horn, senior analyst for IBISWorld.

The group predicts cards, home-cooked meals and boxes of chocolate will replace jewelry, lingerie and other more expensive gifts.

Couples are expected to spend an average of $102.50 per person on Valentine's Day gifts, down about $20 from last year, according to a survey conducted by BIGresearch for the National Retail Federation.

"A bad economy won't stop Cupid this Valentine's Day, but it might slow him down," Tracy Mullin, chief executive officer of the retail trade group, said in a statement.

Valentine's Day falling on the Saturday of a three-day weekend could help or hurt those who benefit from Valentine's Day spenders.

While hotels and restaurants hope to lure couples with Valentine's Day specials, flower vendors bemoaned the weekend date. "When you're at the office, it's more fun to get flowers," said Patrick McCann, owner of Greenworks Inc. and Toscana Gardens LLC in the Flower Mart at Sixth and Brannan streets in San Francisco.

McCann said he bought 30 percent fewer flowers this year than last, and booked those purchases just three weeks in advance instead of as long as six months. "We're a luxury commodity," he said. "When there's an abrupt downturn, we're the first to go."

Solomon Murdoch, owner of Cable Car Flowers in front of Neiman Marcus at Stockton and Geary streets, also bought about a third of his usual Valentine's Day inventory. "Instead of getting a dozen roses, they're getting half," he said of his customers.

The Grand Cafe in San Francisco, like every other restaurant adapting to the difficult economy, has lowered prices a bit, including for the four-course Valentine's Day weekend prix-fixe menu, said Frank Micalizzi, the general manager. He set the price at $55 per person, while it could easily be $65 to $69 in better times, he said.

"It's a very hard time right now, especially for our employees," said Micalizzi. "More people are not spending what they used to, so you try to lower your price a little bit to accommodate the guest."

With 300 reservations booked for today, he's pleased with the Valentine's Day showing. "That will be a very good turnout for us, thank God," he said.

But for many seasoned sweethearts who have their Valentine's Day traditions down pat, little will change.

"I take my wife flowers to her work, then we go out to dinner at night," said Johnny Mitchell, 62, of San Francisco, as he purchased a dozen red roses. "After 25 years, the plan is set in concrete."

Chronicle staff writer George Raine contributed to this report. E-mail Victoria Colliver at vcolliver@sfchronicle.com.

This article appeared on page C - 1 of the San Francisco Chronicle