Implementation Steps

Under the fire hazard topic (Table: Logic outline), we estimated for each elementary topic (lowest level in the model where data are evaluated) the percentage area and degree of aggregation of observations exceeding a specified threshold value using spatial data layers provided by the LANDFIRE project and a spatial analysis program (FRAGSTATS, McGarigal and others 2002, Table: Definition of data inputs). For each elementary topic under fire behavior and ignition risk, we estimated the probability that conditions within a given watershed exceeded a specified threshold value based on spatial layers of fire spread rate and intensity generated by the FIREHARM model using the Rothermel (1972) spread model. We constructed a logic model within the EMDS modeling system to show how all elementary topics contributed to an evaluation of fire danger. We evaluated evidence for low wildfire danger within watersheds of a map zone to provide an ecological basis for determining treatment priority. A decision analysis was then run in a separate but related decision model to incorporate ecological and logistical considerations for planning fuels treatment across the study area.