Introduction

A Needs Assessment Approach to Evaluation

A framework for program evaluation is found in needs assessment. According to Rossi and others (1999), in a needs assessment, a program is assessed in light of the presenting conditions that make the program necessary. Current and prospective service recipients may be surveyed to explore such pertinent issues as target audience for the services or program, service utilization, services desired, shortcomings of existing services, and barriers to service utilization. Additional items of interest in a user-needs assessment are: (1) a detailed examination of the characteristics of the target audience, (e.g., gender or time in position of employment); (2) need for specific products and services; (3) program design, including preferred delivery systems, (e.g., the Internet, in-person briefings) and delivery styles, (e.g., maps and graphs); and (4) program operations, (i.e., whether potential Predictive Services clients are actually using the products and services, and if not, why not). A careful examination from the perspective of key informants (users and potential users) facilitates a formative evaluation process. This process includes adjustment of existing products and services to better meet user needs and development of new products identified as necessary but not currently offered. The evaluation can result in a negative appraisal of a program, causing some consternation among program sponsors and enthusiasts. However, findings of a careful needs assessment that result in subsequent adjustment can help increase program value and effectiveness. Such a process might be taken in stride as part and parcel to setting up a program designed to meet a specific need or set of needs, and growing pains in adjusting and further developing a program through its life. Undertaking a user-needs assessment represents an openness and a commitment to service. Evaluation should be a part of every serious risk communication effort (Slovic and others 1990).

Crafting of Risk Messages to Meet Users' Needs

Access to information is crucial to effective management of risk. Information available prior to a risk-related event can assist in advance planning, including allocating and distributing resources. Information available during a risk-related event could help determine how severe the event might become, adequacy of management resources, and the type and degree of intervention that is needed to protect human, structural, and natural resources. Information following a risk-related event might be used to aid recovery efforts and conduct analysis directed toward future risk-related responses. Wildfire is one example of a risk-related event; fires represent threat and potential harm to natural, structural, and human resources.

Factors that Affect Acceptability and Use of Risk Information

Not all audience members targeted for risk-related information will have the same information needs or interests; thus, variability in message content is an important consideration in crafting risk-related messages. Multiple factors have been demonstrated to influence perceptions of risk and risk-related decisions, including gender (Finucane and others 2000, Satterfield and others 2004, Siegrist 2000), age (Otani and others 1992), time in decisionmaking role, and degree of experience with risk situation (Payne and others 1992, Reyna 2004), educational level (Vaughan and Nordenstam 1991), expertise in the topic area (including expert vs. layperson views) (Fischoff and others 1984, Plough and Krimsky 1987, Slovic 2000), and individual worldviews, (e.g., culture, attitudes, and values) (Slovic and Peters 1998, Vaughan and Nordenstam 1991, Weber and others 1998). Contextual and situational factors further influence risk perceptions and decisionmaking (see, for example, Kneeshaw and others 2004).

In addition, trust in an information source and confidence in the information received have been repeatedly demonstrated as essential to how information will be perceived, responded to, and accepted (Borrie and others 2002, Cvetkovich and Winter 2003, Siegrist 2000, Siegrist and others 2000) and has direct applications to fire-management issues (Cvetkovich and Winter 2004, Shindler and others 2004, Winter and others 2002, Winter and others 2004). Trust in the information source tends to foster greater acceptance and belief in the risk-related message.