Results and Discussion
Authored By: H. K. Preisler, A. A. Ager, J. L. Hayes
The models in equations [1] and [2] appeared to give reasonable fits to 1982-2004 data on bark beetle attacks and wildfire sizes on Forest Service lands in Region 6 (Figure 1). For example, consider all cells over the years when the model in equation [1] predicted a 40-percent probability of a beetle attack (bottom right panel, Figure 1), the actual percentage of time an attack was observed was 37 percent, which is well within the 95-percent limits (36-40 percent) of the predicted probability.
Subsections found in Results and Discussion
- Bark Beetle Infestation : The probability of beetle infestation was significantly influenced by spatial location, size of infestation in previous year, and size of 1- year-old fire within 1 km.
- Fire Size : The estimated spatial pattern of fire sizes seems to indicate northern Washington and eastern Oregon as some of the regions with the highest probabilities of a fire getting large after controlling for all other predictors in the model.
Encyclopedia ID: p3559
