Information Needs, Acceptability of Risk, Trust, and Reliance: The Case of National Predictive Services Customers

Making complex risk-related decisions involves a degree of uncertainty. How that uncertainty is addressed or presented in reports or data tables can be tailored to meet information users' needs and preferences. Involving the recipients of risk-related information in the design of information to be delivered (including the types of information delivered, format, and approach to risk) follows Fischoff’s (1995) recommendation for involving the recipients of risk information in the crafting of the risk message. Here, we describe a study conducted with people who use risk-related information. We contacted users and potential users of National Predictive Services, an information clearinghouse for people who work with prescribed and wildland fire. Specifically, this service supplies information to fire managers and associated personnel that will help them make short-term (30-day) decisions regarding fire personnel and resource deployment. Each potential user is a member of the fire-management community, including fire-management officers, meteorologists, information officers or public affairs personnel, and members of various fire-management teams. The information users focused on in this study were employed within Federal agencies. Respondents completed a self-administered survey via a Web-based service. Findings examine the types of information users need, preferred formats for information delivery, and the likelihood of applying information from Predictive Services in decisions made about fire. Of interest to this paper’s risk management/risk communication focus are the reported views on acceptability of risk and tolerance for errors, implications of risk, and trust and confidence in the information delivered through Predictive Services. Barriers and facilitators to utilization of Predictive Services are illuminated.