Evaluating Wildland Fire Danger and Prioritizing Vegetation and Fuels Treatments
In this study, we present a prototype decision support system for evaluating wildland fire danger and prioritizing subwatersheds for vegetation and fuels treatment. We demonstrate the use of the system with an example from the Rocky Mountain region in the State of Utah, which represents a planning area of about 4.8 million ha and encompasses 575 complete subwatersheds. In a logic model, we evaluate fire danger as a function of three primary topics: fire hazard, fire behavior, and ignition risk. Each primary topic has secondary topics under which data are evaluated. The logic model shows the state of each evaluated landscape with respect to fire danger. In a decision model, we place summarized fire danger conditions of each evaluated landscape in the context of the amount of associated wildland-urban interface (WUI). The logic and decision models are executed in EMDS, a decision support system that operates in ArcGIS. We show that a decision criterion such as relationship to WUI can significantly influence the outcome of a decision to determine treatment priorities. For example, we show that subwatersheds that were in relatively poor condition with respect to fire hazard, behavior, and ignition risk may not be the best candidates for treatment. Additional strategic or logistical factors such as proximity to population centers, presence of endangered species, slope steepness, and road access all might be taken into account in selection of specific watersheds within a management area for treatment. Thus, the ecological status of each ecosystem can be placed in one or more social and human values contexts to further inform decision making. The application introduced here can be readily expanded to support strategic planning at national and regional scales and tactical planning at local scales.
- Introduction : Wildland fuels have accumulated in many western forests of the United States (U.S.) for at least the past 70 years due to 20th century settlement and management activities, and, to some extent, changing climatic conditions.
- Methods : Beginning with a study area description, the methods section details data sources, provides a study outline, and relates implementation steps, and model design and analysis.
- Results : We describe results in terms of the strength of evidence in support of the overarching proposition of low fire danger or of subordinate propositions under fire danger.
- Discussion : The relative nature of our evaluation of fire danger has at least three important implications.
- Conclusions : Given the widespread increase in danger of wildland fire throughout the Western United States over the past 70 years or more, the sustainability of Western forest ecosystems is clearly at stake.
Encyclopedia ID: p3632
