I think it will be close but recently, I think HD-DVD might actually win.

The reason?

HD-DVD can undercut blu ray on price - yeh we know that. BUT just think about it....imagine buying a HD-DVD which you can buy and also play on a regular DVD player. That is, it has 2 versions of the same movie on the disc. One version is HD and can only be shown using a HD-DVD player (using the blue laser) while the other can be read by the standard red laser used in today's DVD players.

Now the hardware at the time of launch will be US$500 and that will quickly reduce to around US$200 in a few years. Meanwhile you buy HD-DVD at slightly more than regular DVDs (knowing that when the hardware gets cheaper....you can watch it in HD).

Also, if you want to go to a friends place to watch the movie you can because a regular DVD player can at least play it back in standard def.

The other thing is, Blu ray has more storage....so what? How much do you need? besides, HD-DVD can eventually come out with even more layers to up the capacity.

And finally, from what I understand, HD-DVDs will be easier to copy for home use - hence the support from Microsoft and Intel.

Lots of good reasons eh?

Capacity will only be a factor for PCs. And that is really irrelevant because eventually HVD will kick everyone's ass in that department.

Ahh...but what about the movie studio support? If the studios start to see HD-DVDs being more popular, don't be surprised if they jump the Blu Ray ship.

80% of the people buying a PS3 are buying it for games and the likely high cost of the PS3 will mean that people won't rush out to buy it unless SONY is willing lose 25-20% of its book value over 3 years in order for Blu Ray to win.

Its still anyone's guess, but I am starting to think that HD-DVD may actually win now.

by Azzuro10 (See profile) - February 20, 2006 11:34 PM PST

Obviously it seems like the majority of us will be using our PS3 as our first blu-ray player. Kind of like some people like myself did with the PS2 and DVD's.

$24 a DVD isn't too bad tho I wouldn't be surprised if these are bare boned movies.

by JordanBisasky (See profile) - February 8, 2006 7:02 PM PST

who the bleep even watched this piece of bleep. oh yeah, who freakin cares about blue ray, i gots a huge tv and i cant tell the diference between a good dvd player and high def. bother me when sony invents a hologram

by natureboy92135 (See profile) - February 8, 2006 5:58 PM PST

Sony having incentive to see this format persist is obviously willing to reduce their profits or even take a loss temporarily, particularly since they are patent holders and will collect royalties on the sale of every disc and player.

The question is what will the prevailing costs be across all content providers and where will prices be 2 years from now, if Blue-Ray takes off.

by brokerdude (See profile) - February 8, 2006 1:52 PM PST

These prices aren't much higher than current new release dvds. But what are the prices going to be to get a blue-ray player? Also, the public seems to be very in love with dvds especially since sales on them are often very good and you get can lots of titles around $10 with weekly specials at both circuit city and best buy and especially amazon.com, also if players are going to be very expensive i wouldn't expect great sales until ps3 arrives, since i know many many people who don't own a dvd player but use their ps2/xbox/xbox360.

by sting7k (See profile) - February 8, 2006 12:53 PM PST