Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina (and my fairly accurate predictions)

By Michael J.W. Stickings

These were the three states I was focusing on going into the election, assuming that Obama would win the other battleground states (including Ohio and Pennsylvania), and they were the three I was paying the most attention to on election night (along with Florida and Virginia).

Here's an update:

Indiana: Called for Obama, who is up 50-49 with 99 percent reporting. That's a spread of just over 26,000 votes in a state with over 2.7 million votes cast.

Missouri: Still undecided, 50-49 for McCain with 100 percent reporting. But 50-49 doesn't quite capture it. With almost 2.9 million votes cast, McCain is up by less than 6,000 votes.

North Carolina: Still undecided, 50-49 for Obama with 100 percent reporting. Again, though, 50-49 doesn't quite capture how close it is. With over 4.2 million votes cast, Obama is up by just over 14,000 votes.

Wow.

Now, with just Missouri and North Carolina left, it's currently 349-163 for Obama. Let's look back at my pre-election prediction: 375-163 for Obama. So far, if I may toot my own horn for a moment, I've gotten it all right. But I did give both Missouri and North Carolina to Obama. If the current results hold, he'll win the latter but not the former. Which will mean that I got everything right except... Missouri.

(Shaking my fists.) Missouri! Dammit.

As for the national popular vote, I predicted (in an e-mail to friends -- you'll have to trust me on this) Obama by seven points, 53-46.

Oh, what's that? It's currently 53-46 for Obama. Huh. Interesting.

Where I may have gotten it wrong was with the Senate, where I predicted the Democrats would end up with 59 seats post-election. It's currently 56-40. For more on the four undecided races, see what I wrote yesterday. It's possible that the Democrats will win three of the four, but unlikely. At most, I think, they'll win two: Oregon and Alaska. In fact, it looks like they'll win Oregon, now that the votes are coming in from Portland and Merkley has overtaken Smith.

(I also predicted the Democrats would pick up 28 seats in the House. So far, with eight races still undecided, they've only picked up 18. It seems I underestimated both the power of incumbency and Obama's influence down-ballot.)

Alright, enough horn-tooting. I'm exhausted, burnt out, and I need to get some rest tonight. I have a lot more to say, but it'll have to wait.

But keep checking back with us. As always, we'll have a lot more for you.

How the election played in Canada

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Obama's win was all over the front pages of our newspapers today and the lead story on our television news. From what I could tell, it was a really big deal for Canadians. I know that's not exactly a scientific way to put it, but I do know that public opinion polls showed overwhelming support for Obama leading up to the election, that there was genuine interest in the election and its outcome, and that, by and large, Canadians were paying very close attention. Certainly among the people I work with, political junkies at the Government of Ontario, the attention was obsessive. And as for me, well, just take a look at this blog.

Basically, what happens in the U.S. affects us Canadians profoundly. It's as simple as that. And Obama's win was, and is, a celebrated event. We understand its historic significance. We understand what it means both for the U.S. and for the world. And we wanted change, too. In a way, the president of the United States is sort of our president, too. Not to take anything away from our own democratically elected officials, but the president wields enormous influence here. It may be indirect most of the time, but it is nonetheless tangible. The impact of American economic policy, for example, doesn't end at America's borders. Just like our friends to the south, if less intimately, and if less dramatically, we have suffered through eight years of Bush. Thankfully, we now have Obama.

Anyway, I wanted to pass along some anecdotal evidence of the significance of yesterday's election:

I work in downtown Toronto at the main provincial government complex. At lunch today, I went for a walk in search of The New York Times or The Washington Post or The Wall Street Journal or USA Today. It's fairly easy to find these and other major American newspapers in Toronto, and I wanted one or more of them as keepsakes. But... nothing. I couldn't find anything anywhere. Everywhere I went, almost everything was sold out. At most, there were a few copies left of our major Toronto papers. At one newsstand, the guy told me that pretty much everything was gone by 10 am. Not just at his place but, from what he'd heard, pretty much everywhere.

Now, I realize that many of the copies may have been bought up by Americans. There are a lot of them here in Toronto. But what was clear was that I wasn't alone in wanting an American newspaper today. The election -- and specifically Obama's win -- was an historic event the likes of which we are rarely privileged to witness. And people, many people, many Canadians, wanted to remember it, to have something to commemorate it, to have a newspaper they could look at years from now, perhaps even generations from now, to show their children and grandchildren. It is that important to us.

As for me, my younger daughter is too young to take anything from the election, but I'm happy that my older one, who is eight, was able to be witness history. This morning, as I was getting ready for work, she called out to me: "Who won?" "Obama," I said, and she was happy. Barack Obama, after all, will soon be her president, too.

The audacity of hope

By Libby Spencer

It was quite a night, wasn't it? I laughed. I cried. I'm still tearing up at intervals as I look at the photos and the full impact of this historic moment hits me. I feel about as stunned as I did on this day in 04, only this time it's in a good way. I want to stand on my deck and shout, "Thank you America for repudiating the lies and the hatemongering of the extremists who hijacked our country for so many years."

I want to go out and hug every single person who fought so hard to make this moment happen. Every campaign worker who toiled beyond human endurance to get out the largest vote in a hundred years. Every person who talked to their friends and families and neighbors and sold them on the idea that hope still exists and can overcome hate. Every blogger that risked carpal tunnel in a relentless assault of pixels on the intertubes, pushing back against the false narratives that threatened to turn this election into an American Idol contest.

Of course, the election of President Barack Hussien Obama is not the end of this fight, it's just the beginning. It's clear that he understands that too. I was struck by the tone of his acceptance speech. There was little jublilation over victory in his sober rhetoric as he hoisted the weight of his new responsiblities onto his slender shoulders. One can see the heaviness of that burden already manifesting in the increasing lines in his face and the new gray in his temples.

There's much work left to be done in bringing the millions of citizens who are even now stockpiling weapons against what they apparently truly believe will be the coming of some kind of Marxist-Socialist-Communist-Muslim-Gay-terrorist coup, back into reality, (assuming that can ever be done) and the dire problems that plagued us two days ago didn't disappear with President Obama's election. The world as we knew it before Bush won't ever return again. But I don't want to deal with that today. For this one day, I just want to savor the moment.

The whole world changed last night and although the challenges ahead are great, I believe we finally took a step in a better direction. For the first time in eight long years, I woke up without that crushing weight of concern bearing down on my chest about the future of my child and my grandchild. For this one day I just want to breathe that in. I want to wallow in the audacity of hope, and relish my rekindled pride in my President and our country. It's been a long time since I've felt it.

[photo credit]

(Cross-posted at The Impolitic.)

The audacity of hope looks less audacious today

By Dan Tobin

I still haven't had a chance to read many post-election reactions, but I read enough last night to know that Barack Obama's historic win will be amply covered and contextualized by writers much better than me. In the heat of the moment I promised 1000 reasons for exultant joy, but for now I'll just offer two, one about race, and one about America.

1.

In the run-up to the election, I was listening to lot of Curtis Mayfield because I wanted socially aware black music with a strain of positivity. In the epic "(Don't Worry) If There's a Hell Below We're All Going To Go," he starts listing problems destroying the black community, then sarcastically points out that "Nixon says don't worry." Something about his tone really drove home for me how distanced the black community of the early '70s felt from the presidency. After all, it was Nixon who relied on the "southern strategy" of exploiting white racism to win elections. Of course they felt disconnected.

Last night, as I watched a tearful Jesse Jackson and several black commentators trying to hold it together, I thought about people others they wished could have lived to see this day. For me, it's Curtis (and Toot). Waiting for the T this morning, I tried listening to the outrageous optimism of "Move On Up" and it was all I could do not to start crying:

Just move on up, and keep on wishing,
Remember your dreams are your only schemes, so keep on pushing

There's so much to be said about race and this moment, but for now I'll just say this: keep on pushing.

2.

Saturday and Sunday we made calls for Obama, and there were plenty of people, but Tuesday was more striking. We heard a lot about Obama's "ground game," but seeing a packed room firsthand made me realize what was really happening. In this one call-center in Massachusetts, we had over 400 people choosing to skip a day of work to help elect Barack Obama. I dialed 250 numbers and I can't say for sure that I produced a single vote, but something much bigger happened.

Every person in that room, just like in rooms across the country, on canvassing shifts, and at home logged on to the website -- by participating in the process, we felt we had a stake in the campaign. And with a victory, we may just start to can feel like we have a stake in our government, too.Even if you didn't get involved, there's no such thing as a fair-weather supporter of the United States: you're welcome to come aboard any time.

And that's what our democracy was supposed to be: a government of the people, by the people, for the people. Today, for the first time in my life, it really feels that way, and I am hopeful for a brighter tomorrow and a better world.

(Cross-posted at Surgical Strikes.)

What it all means; or, some bombastic post-election post

By non sequitur

First of all: brilliant, if uncomfortably true (and somewhat similar to what I wrote yesterday).

The Republican/right-wing spin seems to be that McCain only lost because of the financial that hit in September--when he was actually ahead in the polls! He had to deal with an unpopular incumbent, and then when the banks looked like they might fail, he couldn't get out from under that. But the fact that he did so well even against such "strong headwinds" just goes to show what a deeply conservative country this remains.

Sorry, I should have warned you to pick up your feet. Of course McCain enjoyed a post-convention bounce in the polls in early September; even Walter Mondale managed that. Of course there's a legitimate argument to be made that Bush is so unpopular because of his incompetence, not because of the substance of his policies, but on Iraq and his handling of the economy I don't think the two can be meaningfully separated. And one can't help but wonder why all those Congressional Republicans are going down in flames if voter dissatisfaction is aimed solely at a feckless executive branch.

I think Justin Webb has done a superb job of covering the election for the BBC, and I mostly agree with his analysis (or, perhaps more accurately, I fervently hope it's true). I quoted some of it last night in comments to Michael's live-blogging post, but the same argument is stated well in this column in The Times (which I saw via Webb's link on his BBC blog). The key point (and the part I most hope is true) comes at the end:

Democratic presidents such as Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman and John Kennedy had united the liberal North with the poor and dispossessed whites of the deep South. After the Civil Rights Act this link was broken. And Democrats struggled without this source of southern support.

Yet slowly what one might term a mass chattering class has emerged to make a northern liberal candidate like Mr Obama viable as they had not been since Kennedy. A record number of Americans now complete high school or go to college. There are 7.3 million American millionaires, and more than half the country now considers itself middle class and is working less and enjoying more leisure time. Even to be competitive with these voters the Republicans had to select an unconventional candidate. And still he lost.

We have reached the end of the Southern Strategy and that changes American politics profoundly.

The big themes of Republican politics - cut income tax, fight crime, reform social security, outlaw abortion, support marriage - no longer cut it politically. The Democrat tunes play better.

Tax cutting has lost its edge because 29 million Americans pay no income tax at all and because the Democrats have learnt how to blunt the message. Success has made crime less of a preoccupation. And the desperate need for Republicans to win votes among women makes their stance on abortion a serious problem.

The Republicans were forced to select a maverick because they did not have an electable mainstream Republican candidate. This was because the mainstream Republican agenda is no longer a winner.

Welcome to a new American president. Welcome to a new American politics.

I certainly hope so. In any case, today certainly feels good. Enjoy it with some appropriate music.

(But why is it suddenly winter? And what's with those boots?)

Reflections on the elections

By Michael J.W. Stickings

I've been trying this morning to put my finger on just how I feel about yesterday, to find the right word for it. I still feel overcome, overwhelmed. I'm euphoric, but not deliriously so, immensely happy, but not without a sense of the difficulties and challengies that lie ahead. Joyous, but also sober. Incredulous, on one level, but also humble. Aware of what happened, but not yet fully.

As I've been telling people today, we have been witnesses to history, to something very, very special, and, in the end, I think we all made a difference.

Obama's victory is our victory, and we are right to celebrate it, and to be deeply moved by it. But now comes the even harder part: governing. There is no time to waste.

**********

I will continue to post on the election today and well into the forseeable future, of course -- for example, I have a "now for the bad news..." post planned for later -- but here, for now, are some quick notes and reflections:

ITEM #1 -- The complete transcript of Obama's victory speech is here.

ITEM #2 -- There was huge voter turnout in this election, relatively speaking: 64 percent, certainly the hightest level in a long, long time. Looking at the figures at the Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA), an invaluable resource, I see that it would be just higher than turnout in 1960, which was 63 percent, and therefore the highest level at least since 1948. (For more on turnout in the U.S., see here.) Note, though, that is this much lower than turnout in most other mature western democracies (which mostly have parliamentary systems). One notable exception is, alas, Canada, where there was record low turnout for last month's federal election (under 60 percent of registered voters). And so, despite the obvious importance of the election, despite what seemed to be all the excitement, 36 percent of the electorate didn't vote. That's pretty depressing.

ITEM #3 -- Did anyone else notice the awkwardness between McCain and Palin after McCain's quite gracious concession speech last night? It's like they didn't quite know what to do. McCain extended his arm, as if to shake hands, and they did, but only hesitantly. Then they hugged and air-kissed, but coldly. And that was that. They all just sort of stood there, not quite knowing what to do. Even McCain's handshake with Todd was awkward: quick and done with. McCain may have picked her in part because he was smitten with her (and because the right wanted her on the ticket), but, by now, there certainly seem to be some hard feelings between them. And understandably so. It may even be that they don't really like or respect each other anymore. It was a shotgun wedding, a short, intense marriage, and then, implosion. Last night, they might just as well have been a divorced couple signing papers with their lawyers. Let the recriminations begin in earnest.

ITEM #4 -- I'll have more on this later, but it looks like the Democrats may have been held to 56 seats in the Senate, short of what some of us (most of us?) projected. (I didn't think they'd make it to 60, but I thought 58 or 59 was likely.) Of the four races yet to be decided, the Dems may pick up one more, perhaps Alaska or Oregon, giving them 57, or perhaps even both, giving them 58. And I suppose it's possible that a recount in Minnesota could give them that one, too, bumping them up to 59. Possible, but unlikely.

In Oregon, incumbent Republican Gordon Smith, an Obama-friendly moderate, maintains a 48-46 edge over challenger Jeff Merkley. UPDATE (3:45 pm): With 72 percent reporting, it's now 47-47. Smith is still in front.

In Minnesota, in a much-watched race, incumbent Republican Norm Coleman, once thought to be possible veep pick for McCain, barely leads challenger/comedian Al Franken. With almost 2.9 million votes cast (and with 100 percent reporting), Coleman is up by just 694 votes (which means it's tied 42-42, with an independent candidate pulling in 15). There will be a recount. UPDATE (3:48 pm): Coleman is now up by just 462. What an incredibly close vote.

In Georgia, incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss, one of the more reprehensible Republicans on Capitol Hill, is ahead of challenger Jim Martin 50 to 47 (with a Libertarian pulling in 3). Chambliss has clearly won, but, in Georgia, a run-off vote is held if no candidate wins at least 50 percent of the vote. Actually, Chambliss has 49.9 pecent of the vote, and both he and Martin are already preparing for the run-off. I suspect it is still Chambliss's race to lose.

Finally, in Alaska, incumbent Republican Ted Stevens, a convicted felon, continues to hold off challenger Mark Begich, 48 to 47, with 99 percent reporting. The race has tightened, and still to be counted, as the Anchorage Daily News points out, are about 40,000 absentee ballots (with more still coming in), about 9,000 early votes, and thousands of questioned ballots. "If the lead holds, Stevens will shock the nation and be the first person ever re-elected to the U.S. Senate after being found guilty on criminal charges. Polls had shown the Republican down by at least 8 percentage points on the day before the election." Here's hoping Begich pulls this one out.

ITEM #5 -- It looks like Obama has tapped Rahm Emanuel to be his chief of staff. Emanuel, a long-time Clintonite, is, as you may know, a Democratic Congressman from Illinois. He and Obama apparently have a strong relationship, and he is an insider who would help manage relations with Capitol Hill, but he's not exactly well-liked among the more progressive elements of the Democratic Party. I'm not sure this signifies much. It's too early to conclude that Obama will govern from the "center," or that he will align himself with the less progressive side of the party. What is essential is that Obama have a chief of staff in whom he has full confidence and can place his full trust. Emanuel, in that regard, may be right for the job. He hasn't yet given his answer, or his answer hasn't yet been reported. As Steve Benen suggests, while Emanuel's legislative record may not be terribly to our liking, "his work in the Clinton White House was impressive, and in many ways, he's always been more of an executive branch kind of guy anyway." All I can say is, I hope Obama knows what he's doing. (I suspect he does.) UPDATE (3:54 pm): Emanuel has accepted. Or maybe not -- it's being denied.

ITEM #6 -- Finally, a hilarious headline (and short article) at The Onion: "Black Man Given Nation's Worst Job." Yeah, there's a lot of truth to that. Thankfully, though, it's the right man for the job.

The gathering storm

By Carl

As all the world's eyes are focused on America and its elections, a very frightening piece of news is developing in China:

In the initial weeks of the global financial crisis, Chinese officials resolutely declared that they were not significantly affected. But now, as factory closings, dire corporate earnings reports and stock market losses continue to mount, the Communist Party's confidence has changed to another feeling entirely: fear.

For the first time in the 30 years since China began its capitalist transformation, there is a perception that the economy is in real trouble.

And for the Communist Party, the crisis is not just an economic one, but a political one. The government's response offers a glimpse into its still ambiguous relationship with capitalism -- relatively hands-off in good times, but quick to intervene directly at the first signs of a downturn in order to prevent popular unrest.

Normally, you might think to take this in stride, but here's the problem: the American economic system, including our own governmental operations, are inexorably linked to the Chinese system, indeed, to the government itself.

Should the Chinese government fail to stem the economic tide within its own borders, should the absolute worst happen and the Chinese government itself go belly-up (like Iceland almost did) in financing a bailout of its banks, then the Chinese government will do one of two things:

The lesser of the two evils is to stop buying American bonds, you know, those things we've been financing the deficit with. This will create a hyperinflative environment with both skyrocketing prices AND skyrocketing itnerest rates, the economic perfect storm of stagflation I predicted three years ago.

The worse of the two evils is that China will liquidate its outstanding investments, meaning they will dump our T-bills and notes and bonds onto the open market. This will cause the value of the dollar to crash, and trigger a depression that will most definitely not be called "great". It will be nothing less than a catastrophe. War would be the most likely outcome of such a radical move, war on a global scale.

There's small comfort to be had here, and we should all be crossing our fingers or praying really hard right now. China is a relative rookie in free market capitalism, and the mistakes we made up to now have been pretty horrific.

And we continue to perfect our mistakes. China doesn't have the benefit of our past experience, even. It won't take much, just a minor panic attack and things could topple quickly.

(Cross-posted to Simply Left Behind.)

"President-elect Barack Obama"

By Carol Gee

It has a nice ring to it, doesn't it? It sounds very new and different; it is a "sea-change." Political reality today is not anything like it was yesterday. So many of us have waited such a long time for this moment, that it is a bit overwhelming.

This post's happy illustration photo was taken before the election. Barack Obama's election victory does not mean his situation gets any easier. Closeups on television during his acceptance speech last night showed that he has more gray hair now. And though his voice was strong, it was unusually subdued. No doubt it was due to the recent loss of his maternal grandmother, to exhaustion after a two-year campaign, and to the weight of the world descending on his slim shoulders.

The 2008 election marks the start of a welcome pendulum swing, a contemporary period of political transition from Right to Left. Moving from conservative to progressive, there is the potential for our people to move from reporting huge disappointment to speaking of a measure of satisfaction. It marks the bare beginnings of a better America, perhaps even a better world. That idea, it seems to me, was likely at the center of the floods of tears reported by so many of us in the blogosphere and seen on television. The origin of my own tears goes deeper than the historical circumstances of Obama's election. They have to do with hope for change and relief that a dark period is coming to an end.

"President-elect Obama" rings hollow, however, if you are a Republican on the losing side. Listening to Senator McCain's speech last night gave me just a bit of hope that his chastened party will be able, as one of them said, be able to move completely through the five stages of grief. It would be good if that happened, if Republicans could be cooperative, but I will not be holding my breath. Democrats made significant gains in both houses of Congress. However, with Democrats shy of the 60 votes needed to quiet permanent minority filibuster mode, recalcitrant Republicans can be a problem in the Senate. They will either get on board or stay angry; they will not be able to make a huge difference. The movement is larger than that, and it feels good to be a small part of it.

The nation is now marching to the beat of a different drummer. And it started immediately. For example, thousands of cheering folks marched on Pennsylvania Avenue to the "People's House" in Washington D.C. -- to the front of the White House, to the house where a new family and a new puppy will be moving in in 75 days or so. Upon reflection it makes me realize that the people in Washington were reclaiming the peoples' house for Obama. It was nothing like an insurrection, however. It was a notice that said, "We're still here!"

Democrats now hold down the winning side -- That unfamiliar phrase sounds like a big change, very new and unusual. Yesterday's election is a result of votes cast by many more change constituencies than mere Democrats. The chorus of new voices formed a strange coalition, Conservatives and Independents and Youth and College-educated and New Englanders and Southerners, etc., etc. The crowd celebrating in Chicago signaled that the new order begins with diversity and will continue with reconciliation. It was absolutely heartwarming to contemplate as our country moves towards the end of the first decade of the 21st century.

True to these modern "wired" times, our newly elected president's biography has already been updated in Wikipedia: Barack Hussein Obama II has entered the history books as the first African-American elected to the U.S. presidency. His family of origin celebrates in Kenya. President Obama and his family will move into the White House January 20, 2009.

(Cross-posted at South by Southwest.)

Yes

By Capt. Fogg

Did Florida redeem itself last night? It depends. Yes, there were enough Homo Sapiens to put Obama over the top, but the Neanderthals won far too many local contests. The miserable bastards of Martin County Florida voted heavily Republican and no Democrat, including Barack Obama came anywhere close to winning. I'm at a loss to explain it.

This is a small county, much of which is rural and much of which is state and federal park land. It's a county that prides itself as conservation minded and it shows, A recent poll showed than nearly 90% of us favor slow and limited growth and many favor no growth at all, but it's a county that regularly -- invariable votes for councilmen owned and operated by rapacious developers. That is to say they vote Republican.

I've regularly been chastised for hinting that Sarah Palin isn't qualified. People bristle at any criticism of Bush, at any suggestion that there is any option for the voter than to go straight Republican. Wealthy people, upper middle class people; you can almost see the reptilian nictitating membrane blink over their eyes at the suggestion that there is no official state religion, that the Constitution does not mandate that people pledge allegiance to (the Christian) God and that we stamp our mandatory faith on our coinage.

Yes, a slight majority of Floridians voted for Obama. Counties containing universities, counties with a high African-American population, even Miami-Dade with it's very large Cuban population voted for Obama, but not Martin County with it's relatively large population of billionaires and multi-multi millionaires and a very large number of retired military personnel . This county votes in lock step with the people of central Florida: the people in the rusted out trailers and tar paper shacks and dead cars in the yard.

These fine folks also passed a constitutional amendment banning any kind of same-sex domestic or civil contracts, even though Florida law already prohibits same-sex marriage. Perhaps I shouldn't be surprised that a State with such a diverse population would have such an affinity for small minded, authoritarian and puritanical politics, but I am and I'm disgusted.

Yes, Florida voted for Obama, but...

(Cross posted from Human Voices.)

A dream delayed, but not denied

By Carl

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal."

Gooooooooooooooooooood MORRRRRRRRRRRRRRNING, AMERICA!

Bet you thought I was going to go with Martin Luther King's dream, didn't you? ;-) But his dream was the American dream. If a funny looking scrawny guy with big ass ears, a permanent tan and an unsual name can be elected President, well...we can put a man on the moon, right?

Many random thoughts are flashing through my mind right now, and when I get like this, I like to remind myself: just breathe.

Take a breath with me now. Be in this moment. This is history, and history of a good kind, not the kind you stare at in horror as it unfolds on the TV. This is the kind of history that you savor, because it's about you.

Yes, you. Personally. Whatever part you played, even if you opposed it, this history was built stone by stone, pebble by pebble, person by person.

Forget the tasks ahead. Forget what has come before, except as how those moments built to this moment.

Thank yous abound. Thank you, Frederick Douglass. Thank you, Rosa Parks. Thank you, Dr. King. Thank you, Ralph Bunche.

Thank you, Reverend Jackson. Thank you, Representatives Henry Jackson, Shirley Chisholm, John Lewis, Harold Ford, Senator Hiram Ravel and the embarassingly small number of other black legislators who have paved the way for this moment.

Hillary Clinton had 18 million cracks in her glass ceiling. President-elect Obama needed just 340 or so to break through.

Obama was not my first choice for President, but he was my best choice, and I was proud to vote for him. In 1992, and 1996, I felt like progressivism had stolen a couple of victories from the forces of regression, and in 2000, when Al Gore was humbled by a slack-jawed faux-cowboy, I suddenly felt adrift in my own nation. Shortly after that election, I filed for dual citizenship (hey, it was available for the first time, to be fair!).

I've never run from a fight, but I was embarassed to be an American, for the first time since Nixon.

In the bluest city in one of the bluest states in the nation, despite having 8 million people around me who were more less near the same page as I was, I felt alone.

But...Walked out this morning
Dont believe what I saw
A hundred billion bottles
Washed up on the shore
Seems I'm not alone in being alone
A hundred billion castaways
Looking for a home

Turnout in the election nationwide was 61.9%, the highest since the 1920s (when Prohibition was repealed, which means Obama is as attractive as a pina colada).

As proud as I was to vote for Senator Obama, I think when I walk into the voting booth in 2012, and cast my vote for the re-election of President Obama, it will hit me, the magnitude of what has just happened. The job's not over, not by a long shot. Inequality in this country won't be history until we have two African-Americans running for the top job opposing each other.

One Democrat. One Republican.

Oh, I forgot a thank you:

Heavenly Father, thank you for this moment, and please give President Obama the strength, the wisdom, and the courage to guide the ship of state through the turbulent waters ahead.

Amen.

God, I wanna cry!

PS. I'm thrilled to have the first post here tagged "President Barack Obama".

UPDATE: The first thing that popped into my head this morning when I woke up and saw how big a landslide Obama had was, "Bush claimed political capital for eking out a victory in 2004, yet I bet Obama will be humble in the face of the change he has wrought."

UPDATE, PART DEUX: The wonk in me would like to point out that, not only did more people vote for Barack Obama than have voted for any other President in history, but that a higher percentage of people voted for Obama than for any other first term President since FDR in 1932.

Like I said, "Amen!"


(crossposted to Simply Left Behind)

We won

By Mustang Bobby

Barack Obama is going to be the next President of the United States.

We won.

I don't mean just the Democrats or the people who voted for him. I mean all of us. Every man, woman and child, no matter what color their skin, no matter their ancestry, no matter their faith or sexual orientation or anything that does not become them by choice has won something tonight. The change that has been wrought tonight means that nothing other than what Martin Luther King Jr said in 1963 -- the content of a person's character -- matters. Or should it.

We have a lot of work to do. But now we can do it knowing that one of the last borders has finally been crossed.

We won.

Cross-posted from Bark Bark Woof Woof.

Live-blogging the 2008 presidential election: "Change has come to America."

By Michael J.W. Stickings

UPDATED FREQUENTLY.

PLEASE ADD YOUR COMMENTS AND LET US KNOW WHAT YOU THINK/THOUGHT OF THE ELECTION RETURNS AND THE ELECTION COVERAGE.

6:33 pm - So. Here we are. What a day it's been already. We've already put up 21 posts. This is the 22nd. If you're on the home page, scroll down. To go to the home page, click here. There's some really, really excellent stuff there, if I do say so myself.

6:39 pm - As I've mentioned to a number of people today, it's difficult to overstate the significance of this day to me and to so many other bloggers. I didn't really know what I was doing when I started The Reaction three and a half years ago, and some of my earliest posts were on the papal election, but what was clear was that I was looking ahead to 2008. There have been many other issues and stories along the way -- the Iraq War, Katrina, the 2006 mid-term elections, etc. -- but this election, today, has always been the key event on the horizon.

And here we are, at long last, after a long, long campaign, the results slowly trickling in from Kentucky, much more to come at the top of the hour when the polls close in Vermont, Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia, Indiana, and most of Florida.

Speaking personally, it's a big day for me as a blogger and a big day for this blog. But it's been difficult not being able to vote in an election that means so much to me, difficult watching and reading and listening to the accounts of the day without actually being there. I'd love to be there, but, alas, circumstances. And so I observe it all from my perch here in Toronto, detached but as engaged as possible, thankful to have so many wonderful co-bloggers posting their thoughts and experiences, so many friends and acquaintances who are right in the middle of it. I may not be down there, I may not be able to vote, but, well, I'm certainly there in spirit.

More to come...

7:00 pm - And here we go... CNN's first projections... ready? Can you feel the excitement? Wolf Blitzer certainly put on his most excited and dramatic tone of voice. Vermont to Obama. Kentucky to McCain. Well... of course. Not exciting at all.

7:02 pm - For a run-down of poll closings, see Joe Sudbay at AMERICAblog. Ohio, North Carolina, and West Virginia close at 7:30.

7:05 pm - Mark Warner wins the Senate race in Virginia over wacky Republican ex-governor Jim Gilmore. No surprise there.

7:32 pm - Sorry, just had some dinner. Pancakes. The start of an election-night tradition.

7:33 pm - Not much new to report. As John King pointed out on his Magic Map, Obama seems to be doing fairly well in Indiana, specifically in the conservative, rural parts of the state. He's down by just five, with only a few votes in from Marion County (Indianapolis) and nothing reported from either Lake County (next to Chicago) and Monroe County (Bloomington and Indiana U.).

7:44 pm - Not much yet from North Carolina, just a slim lead for Obama, very early on. Remember, we're also watching the Senate race here, with incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole up against Democratic challenger Kay Hagen. Dole's campaign was predictably nasty -- in a Helms-like sort of way. This could be a major pick-up for the Dems.

7:47 pm - McCain's up by 15 in Virginia, with 6 percent reporting, mostly from southern rural counties.

7:49 pm - Obama's narrowed McCain's lead in Indiana to just a single point. He's doing very well along the Illinois border -- yes, that's his home state, but it's still a conservative part of the world, as well as in and around Indianapolis.

7:51 pm - Obama's up by 10 in Florida, with 5 percent reporting. It's way too early to make much of these results, of course. For example McCain's up 70-29 in Georgia. He may end up winning it, but not nearly by that much.

7:55 pm - My friend Jeff from Ohio, currently in Oklahoma, sends me this interesting piece from the NYT by McCain's 2000 national communications director. It's about how Democrats and Republicans have over the course of the past several decades "engineered an enormous trade of one group of suburban swing voters for another," with the Democrats picking up "economically successful suburbanites who trended leftward on a range of social and environmental issues" and the Republicans picking up "blue-collar workers who were socially conservative."

8:01 pm - Indiana is the state I'm following most closely at the moment. McCain's up by 3 with 26 percent reporting. Still nothing from Bloomington, though, or the counties in the northwest.

8:02 pm - Obama wins a bunch: Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Maine. McCain wins South Carolina, Tennessee, and Oklahoma. All as expected.

8:06 pm - King's looking at Virginia. A lot of red. McCain's up by 13, with 19 percent reporting. But there's nothing in yet from some key counties in and around D.C. in the north. As in Indiana, King points out, if less dramatically, McCain is underperforming Bush in '04.

8:10 pm - BREAKING NEWS: NBC calls Pennsylvania for Obama. (No word yet from CNN.)

Creature: "Pennsylvania goes to Obama. I guess McCain's push for the racist vote failed. Good." Very good.

8:12 pm - NBC has called New Hampshire for Obama. More big news. He's also picked up D.C. and Delaware. See, wasn't Biden a brilliant pick? (Kidding. I think he was, but Obama would have won Delaware anyway.)

8:15 pm - From TPM (via Sullivan), on Indiana: "Democrats are cheered by early numbers showing that Obama holds a healthy lead in Vigo County, a place that one Dem described to us as 'the most reliable bellwether county in the country.'"

Dan Tobin: "CNN got so burned by 2000 that they're going to be the last to call every state."

8:21 pm - The current vote total in Maine is 2 to 1 for Obama. That's total vote total. Hilarious.

8:25 pm - Maybe now would be a good time to comment on CNN's much-ballyhooed (by Wolf) Jessica Yellin "hologram," when she was "beamed" into the studio for a one-on-virtual-one with Blitzer. Somewhere, I thought, Aldous Huxley is really not amused. But I suppose it's pretty cool.

8:28 pm - Good point from Sullivan: "White evangelicals voted for McCain in larger margins in South Carolina than they did for Bush, according to CNN. That's staggering to me: what this election may be doing is intensifying the religious and racial identity of the GOP. This is Rove's legacy. It is the destruction of the Republican party as a national force."

8:29 pm - ABC gives Obama Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, too.

8:30 pm - And CNN follows on New Hampshire.

8:33 pm - Virginia seems to be tightening somewhat. McCain's lead has been reduced to 11, with 37 percent reporting. Why? Well, because votes are coming in from the D.C. area. (As the saying goes, this isn't rocket science.) Obama is doing really well in Albemarle County (Charlottesville), Norfolk County, and Roanoke, as well as in Fairfax County (the most populous in the state, up near Washington), and along the southern border with North Carolina.

8:40 pm - CNN, finally, calls Pennsylvania for Obama.

8:43 pm - NBC gives Georgia to McCain. Alas. I projected it to McCain, but, needless to say, I was hoping for an upset.

8:44 pm - Liddy Dole is done. CNN, which seems to be going for extreme caution tonight, still hasn't called it, but NBC has. Hagen is currently up by 16 points, 57-41, with 13 percent reporting.

Creature: This makes my godless heart happy.

8:48 pm - Let's head down to Florida for a moment. Obama is currently up by 3 points, 51-48, with 41 percent reporting. Obama is way ahead where you'd expect him to do well: Palm Beach, Miama-Dade, Monroe down in the south, Pinellas (part of the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater area) up on the Gulf Coast, Leon (Tallahassee) in the north, Orange (Orlando), Seminole, and Volusia in the middle, on the Atlantic side of the state.

8:54 pm - CNN agrees. Dole lost. Good times.

9:00 pm - The pundits, in their infinite wisdom, are almost ready to declare Obama the winner.

9:01 pm - Obama wins Rhode Island, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New York. Remember when, once upon a time -- actually, not so long ago, the McCain campaign pulled out of Michigan and targeted Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Wisconsin? Yeah, well...

9:05 pm - And John Sununu is done, too! In New Hampshire, former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen has beaten the Republican incumbent in the state's Senate race. (He beat her in 2002.) With 17 percent reporting, she's up by 11 points, 54-43.

9:06 pm - ABC gives Kansas, Wyoming, and North Dakota to McCain. Too bad about ND. That was another possible upset for Obama. CNN gives Alabama to McCain.

9:10 pm - NBC is reporting that Missouri and Florida are too close to call.

9:13 pm - Fast and furious now. Co-blogger non sequitur says in comments that the BBC is calling Ohio for Obama. With 8 percent reporting, Obama is up by 15 points, 57-42. But it may not last. Obama is up by huge margins in Cuyahoga (Cleveland) and Franklin (Columbus). Remember, Kerry was counting on Cuyahoga in '04, and the numbers only trickled in late in the night. Right now, Obama is up 71-26 (or, in actual votes, 148,943 to 57,496). He's up in Hamilton (Cincinnati), too.

9:24 pm - The BBC seems to be the place to be. Via non sequitur in comments, there's a source in the McCain campaign who's conceding Florida. "Apparently Obama won 10% more of the Hispanic vote than did Kerry."

9:26 pm - Crap. Mitch McConnell has held on to his Senate seat in Kentucky. I find him to be by far one of the ost offensive Republicans on Capitol Hill.

Creature: "PBS/FOX calls New Mexico for Obama. Ladies and gentlemen, we have our first red state. Onward and upward."

9:28 pm - Can I call this? It's over. Obama will be the next president of the United States. (CNN is hyping a major projection coming up. Hmmm.)

Non sequitur clarifies. On BBC:

"We should point out that we haven't called Ohio for Obama yet. ABC hasn't. Only Fox has."

"Fox isn't good enough?"

"No, Fox isn't good enough."

Right you are, Beeb.

Creature: "Ohio is for Obama. Seriously, that could be it. I'm without words." I hear you, my friend.

9:32 pm - LindaBeth: NBC calls Ohio for Obama. It's still early, with just 15 percent reporting. Obama is up 56-43.

9:33 pm - McCain won West Virginia, by the way.

9:35 pm - BREAKING NEWS: CNN calls Ohio for Obama, joining the other networks. Can I say it again? It's over.

9:37 pm - My friend Marco just dropped me a line from Chicago. He and a friend decided to drive down to Chicago this morning from Toronto: "The mood in the city is electric. People everywhere are talking about the vote. It's no surprise considering this is his backyard but it's awe-inspiring to see so many people talking politics and in such a positive way to boot."

9:40 pm - "It's a steep climb [for McCain]," says Blitzer. No, really? John King is using his Magic Map to offer some scenarios for McCain. Pretty much, he has to win Florida, Virginia, Iowa, and Colorado.

Creature: "I'm this close to tears."

LindaBeth: "Hell, I was teary when I pulled the lever!"

9:44 pm - Indiana is really close now. McCain is up by just a single point, 50-49, with 75 percent reporting. McCain has pulled ahead in some of the Illinois border counties, but Obama is, as expected, well ahead in the more urban and suburban parts of the state. I think Obama can pull this off.

9:48 pm - New Mexico goes to Obama (as expected, but it was considered a swing state). Louisiana goes to McCain (also as expected, though the polls showed Obama not that far behind).

9:57 pm - Obama is down by just over 7,000 votes in Indiana, with over 2 million counted so far (82 percent reporting).

9:58 pm - I haven't mentioned Missouri yet tonight. Coming into tonight, it was, to me, one of the three key states, along with North Carolina and Indiana (this was assuming that Obama would win Ohio, Virginia, and likely also Florida). It's still early there, with just 14 percent counted and McCain up by 9 points, 54-45. Nothing from St. Louis County yet, though, Obama's stronghold in the state.

10:01 pm - Obama wins Iowa, once thought to be a swing state. (McCain was actually campaigning there recently, even when it was clear he wasn't going to win it.) McCain wins Utah, perhaps the most Republican state of all.

10:04 pm - The idiot pundits are spewing nonsense on CNN. Bill Bennett wonders if Obama will govern from the center and stand up to Pelosi and Reid. See, this is what happens. Obama is winning big tonight, receiving an overwhelming mandate in the process, but the right is trying to drive a wedge into the Democratic Party to break it apart. Why shouldn't Obama govern as a liberal? Why should a Democrat who wins be a centrist? When a Republican wins, it's a vindication and mandate for conservatism. When a Democrat wins, it's still a loss for liberalism. Move to the center, move to the center... To do what? To embrace the GOP? To make nice with out-of-power Republicans? Why should Obama not work with Pelosi and Reid on a solidly liberal agenda -- say, on health care, global warming, the Iraq War, and taxes? There is no "liberal media," just a media establishment that operates as an organ of Republican interests. Good for Carville to point out that you just have to look at the election returns to hear what the people are saying. This is a victory for the Democrats, not for Republican-friendly centrism.

10:12 pm - CNN gives Arkansas to McCain. Even the Clintons couldn't prevent that inevitability.

Non sequitur: "VA is 50-50, but apparently the outstanding counties are mainly in the north around DC, so it looks good for Obama." He's right. Actually, it's 50-49 for McCain, with 86 percent reporting, but Obama is clearly closing the gap. He's now down by about 28,000 votes with almost 2.8 million cast.

10:17 pm - As Blitzer points out, the national popular vote is extremely tight, with Obama up 50-49. I suspect, however, that Obama will soon pull away as votes from more urban and suburban precincts are counted and as California starts reporting.

10:23 pm - I haven't seen it called yet, but Obama is well ahead in Colorado: 56 to 43, with 16 percent reporting (and with a lot more to come from Denver).

10:24 pm - McCain wins Texas... and Mississippi. Duh. (Sorry, I'm slowly losing the ability to comment intelligently. I'll do my best to return to form.)

10:29 pm - Ambinder is reporting that Palin will speak shortly after 11 pm ET. (Ha! McCain campaign head honcho Steve Schmidt refuses to say anything nice about Palin.)

10:33 pm - Headline at The Plank: "The New England Republican Is Officially Extinct." Yes, "Connecticut Congressman Chris Shays has gone down to defeat." Actually, he's being clobbered, currently losing 58-41.

10:36 pm - Senate update: Franken is leading Coleman in Minnesota, early on, 43-40. Chambliss, one of the most reprehensible Republicans ever, is leading Martin, with 75 percent reporting, 56-40. The later race isn't being called because a candidate needs to win over 50 percent of the vote to avoid a run-off.

10:39 pm - Obama has pulled ahead in Virginia. With 90 percent reporting, he's up 51-49. There's so much good news I don't know what to do with myself. Let's look at Indiana again...

10:41 pm - Still. Very. Close. McCain's up 50-49, with 90 percent reporting. And Missouri...

10:42 pm - Also. Very. Close. McCain's up 50-49, with 38 percent reporting. In terms of the actual vote, McCain is up by under 4,000 votes (with well over a million counted). I still give Obama the edge here.

10:45 pm - By the way, NBC has given South Dakota and Nebraska to McCain. No surprise there. Arizona, however, remains too close to call. For those of you who haven't been paying attention, that's McCain's home state.

Creature: "The NY Post, of all places, has called the entire enchilada for Obama. Pinch me now."

Barack Obama scored a barrier-breaking victory tonight to become the first black president of the United States -- capping a 22-month quest that tapped into a national hunger for "hope" and "change."

"Wow."

10:54 pm - The polls close in California (as well as in Washington and Oregon) in a few minutes. Allow me to call it for Obama.

Dan Tobin: "This night is such a microcosm for the campaign -- it's just going on and on and I want to kill myself but I can't turn away... and it looks like it's going to end well.

10:58 pm - Gloria Borger is saying nice things about McCain, "an honourable man." Uh-huh.

10:59 pm - BREAKING NEWS: CNN calls Virginia for Obama. Seriously, this is amazing. My excitment isn't coming through here, I know, but I'm busting, Jerry, I'm busting!

11:00 pm - BREAKING NEWS: Obama wins. CNN calls it.

OBAMA WINS OBAMA WINS OBAMA WINS OBAMA WINS OBAMA WINS OBAMA WINS OBAMA WINS OBAMA WINS OBAMA WINS OBAMA WINS OBAMA WINS OBAMA WINS OBAMA WINS OBAMA WINS OBAMA WINS

11:04 pm - And the other networks call it, too: CBS, NBC, ABC, PBS, FOX.

11:09 pm - I'm numb, amazed, I'm excited, I'm joyous, I'm... I can't even explain what I am.

This is such a deeply emotional moment, one of the greatest moments in American history, a moment of world-historical significance. I feel like cheering and crying at the same time.

Which is what I'm doing, even as I'm typing away.

11:14 pm - I need to take a break. Honestly, I feel like I'm about to break down. Stay with us. I'll be back in a bit. I just want to sit quietly and take it all in.

11:30 pm - Alright, I'm back... until Obama comes out. McCain's concession speech was pretty good. It was, I suppose, the good side of McCain, the one that has never been what his mythology has made it out to be but that has been there nonetheless. It was "gracious," as Blitzer put it, much to the chagrin of some in the crowd, some of which seemed to be a bit like those mobs that showed up for McCain-Palin rallies. But I don't want to be too negative. McCain said what needed to be said at the end of a long and bitter and nasty campaign, and I do not doubt his sincerity. (I can't say nice things about Palin, though. She looked contemptuous of the whole thing, as if she still thinks she deserves to win, as if she's already got the knives out to blame anyone but herself, including McCain himself.)

11:34 pm - One name I haven't mentioned tonight -- Joe Biden. He was fantastic pick and he'll be an excellent vice president.

11:37 pm - Obama has won Colorado, by the way. He's up 54-45, with 58 percent reporting. He's also won, as expected, California, Oregon, and Washington. And Hawaii. He's still behind in Missouri, where Obama leads 51-48, and he holds narrow leads in Indiana and North Carolina, up 50-49 in each. Those were the three key states, remember -- not to put Obama over the top, because I didn't think it would be that close, but the three states to watch tonight, the three key battlegrounds, the three closest races.

Non sequitur (once, way back when, a McCain admirer): "McCain's concession speech: What everyone is saying. The old McCain, the guy we liked and respected. It was, as the BBC presented said, 'generous and handsome.' I hope he does something significant in the Senate in the next few years. I hope that this rather disgraceful campaign isn't his last word or legacy."

11:44 pm - This victory "represents masses of Americans" -- David Gergen. And, again, in my view, it isn't some wishy-washy or Republican-friendly centrism that those "masses" want now. It's a vigorous liberalism. Hopefully, and many of us will be here to call him on it if he isn't, Obama is up to the challenge. I believe he is.

Dan Tobin: "America just elected a black man named Barack Hussein Obama as their president four years after deeming John Kerry too risky... Holy fucking shit!"

Creature: "Congrats to America."

11:54 pm - This is incredible. There are celebrations breaking out all over the country. And all around the world, no doubt. (Just compare the setting of McCain's speech to Obama's.)

11:55 pm - Obama will be out soon. I'll be back later.

12:31 am - Wow. What a setting. What a speech. (What a bad podium.) It wasn't soaring, not at first, but he was humble and magnanimous throughout. And the end -- when he traced the life of the 106-year-old Georgia woman over the course of 20th-century American history, each stage ending with "Yes we can," and when he articulated the nobility of America's ideals and the possibilities of America's future, ending, as he has in the past, with "this is our moment, this is our time" -- how incredibly powerful and how incredibly moving that was. I sat there utterly transfixed.

Simply awesome.

LindaBeth: "WOW what a difference... when Obama mentioned McCain's gracious phone call and Obama congratulates McCain, the crowd cheers. When McCain mentions Obama, there were loud boos, which persisted throughout despite McCain's 'no, please.' What unbelievable division that McCain's campaign brought in, and what unity Obama has promised!"

Non Sequitur: "Is it just me, or something generational, or does Obama have a far deeper and fuller understanding of America's civil religion than McCain (or any other politician I've ever seen, including Clinton)?"

Libby Spencer: "Oh happy day. I'm proud to be an American again and we have a president we can be proud of. I've been crying off and on since about 10:00. It's a new world. Big hugs and champagne clinks to everyone."

12:42 am - Obama won Nevada, by the way. He is holding on to extremely tight leads in both Indiana and North Carolina and has narrowed the gap in Missouri. He's even ahead by a slim margin in Montana. Those are the four states left to be decided.

12:45 am - A quick word on some of the key ballot initiatives: "Voters in Colorado and South Dakota on Tuesday rejected anti-abortion initiatives, while Michigan approved medical marijuana and Massachusetts decriminalized the possession of an ounce or less of marijuana."

All good so far. But not this: Florida and Arizona banned same-sex marriage. Arkansas banned adoption by gay couples. California's Proposition 8, on banning same-sex marraige, is too close to call, but the "Yes" side is ahead.

For other votes and results, see here.

12:51 am - The Senate is currently 56-40 for the Democrats. They won't make it to 60. (And I certainly don't count Lieberman as a Democrat.) Of the remaining four races, Chambliss will likely hold his seat in Georgia (and may avoid a run-off). And Coleman may successfully fend off Franken. So that would be two more for the GOP. The race in Oregon is too close to call, but the Republican incumbent, Smith, may pull it out. That would leave Alaska, where Ted Stevens, a walking personification of corruption, is seeking re-election. So the Democrats may win one more, two at most.

12:56 am - The House is currently 237-153 for the Democrats, with 45 still undecided. Which means the Dems have picked up one seat so far. I'll have more on this tomorrow sometime.

1:02 am - Okay, I'm off to watch a repeat of Indecision 2008 with Stewart and Colbert. I'll be back in a bit with one more update.

1:29 am - Well, it looks like McCain will win Missouri and Obama will win Indiana and North Carolina. I had all three going to Obama. As it turned out, all three were incredibly close. Obama continues to lead in Montana.

I'm past the point of being able to comment in any meaningful way on pretty much anything at this point, including these four races. So I'll hold off on saying any more until... later today. By then, we should know how these races and the various undecided Senate and House raced turned out.

1:31 am - It's been a tense but ultimately incredible night. I'd like to thank all of you for stopping by, and my co-bloggers for their many contributions. I've included some of their comments here in the post, but make sure to check out the comments section as well. They and others kept a good thread going throughout the evening.

As I said at the opening, so much of my blogging over the past three and a half years was pointing directly to this night.

So many of us, bloggers and non-bloggers alike, had been looking foward to it, and working for it, each in our own way, and, tonight, we were witnesses to history.

Change has come to America. Hope has come to the world.

Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States.

**********

I just want to end with an e-mail that I just received from the Obama campaign -- one that all of us who signed up received:

Michael --

I'm about to head to Grant Park to talk to everyone gathered there, but I wanted to write to you first.

We just made history.

And I don't want you to forget how we did it.

You made history every single day during this campaign -- every day you knocked on doors, made a donation, or talked to your family, friends, and neighbors about why you believe it's time for change.

I want to thank all of you who gave your time, talent, and passion to this campaign.

We have a lot of work to do to get our country back on track, and I'll be in touch soon about what comes next.

But I want to be very clear about one thing...

All of this happened because of you.

Thank you,

Barack

I can't really take credit for anything. I'm not American and couldn't donate and didn't vote. But this election meant a lot to me, as to many around the world, just as America means a lot to me. And I did what I could, however small a contribution I made in the grand scheme of things, both with this blog and at the other blogs where I post and on the radio and on TV and simply by being an active participant in the conversation.

And without taking anything away from Obama, for whom I have perhaps greater respect and admiration than I have ever had for any political figure, I do think this happened because of all of us.

Nice stuff

By Creature

From ninshubur at the orange place:

First, there was the doorman at the Soho Grand Hotel, where we spent our enchanted wedding night. As he ushered us into us cab in the morning, he admitted that he was less concerned about whether his taxes go up or down than he was about our standing in the world. It turns out he works part of the year in Ghana, coaching a soccer team.

"You used to drive through the streets and see posters everywhere of Osama bin Laden," he told us. "He was the first person people felt represented them in the world." Now all of the posters have been replaced -- with posters of Obama. "It makes them feel completely differently about America that a half-African black man could be elected president of this country."

America's makeover would be instant.

More:

After a friendly half hour in the slowly creeping line, a young black man drove up and helped an elderly black man out of his car. "Go on, grandad," he said. "They'll let you go first. Just tell them you have a hard time standing."

"Oh, all right," said the older man. He wore a loosely perched baseball cap, and a light brown canvas jacket. He could hardly walk, but he was smiling wide, laughing and joking as he came forward on his grandson's arm. We all made way for him without a word.

"I guess I gotta get past you," he said to us, apologizing for jumping in ahead. "I gotta vote for that black kid for president!"

The importance of tonight cannot be overstated.

(Cross-posted at State of the Day.)

Polls, projections, and predictions

By Michael J.W. Stickings

A useful reminder: Nate Silver advises us to ignore the exit polls.

I have quoted, cited, and referred to Nate extensively over the course of this long campaign. He is one of the most thoughtful commentators around, not least when it comes to the nebulous world of public opinion polling, and his blogging at FiveThirtyEight (some of it cross-posted to TNR's The Plank) has been essential reading. I don't even hold it against him that he's a Cubs fan.

Anyway, Nate's final projection is "a decisive electoral victory" for Obama:

• Obama 349
• McCain 189

With Obama winning the popular vote by 6.1 points.

I'm still going with Obama 375, McCain 163 -- which is Rove's map plus Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina. I'm being overly optimistic, perhaps, but, well, so be it. As I've been arguing here, I think high turnout will put him over the top in some of the closer races. (Nate has Indiana and Missouri going to McCain.)

I think the Democrats will end up with 59 seats in the Senate. In the House, they'll pick up 28 seats. Once more, I'm being optimistic. But why not?

We'll know a lot very early this evening: Virginia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana. It usually takes a while for Florida to report its results, but we might not have to wait long there either. One state I'll be watching is Georgia, where Obama could pull off a huge upset -- I doubt it, but high black turnout and solid early voting for Obama could be the difference. Louisiana may also be fairly close, though it should go to McCain. Later, watch for North Dakota and Montana, two generally red states where Obama was polling extremely well. An upset in North Dakota is possible. Colorado and New Mexico should go to Obama, perhaps quite easily, though they're both considered to be swing states.

Keep checking back. We'll have a lot more for you the rest of the day and into tomorrow.

What the election means to me, or, Some Emo election post

By non sequitur

Hi. I used to blog here regularly (read: compulsively), but haven't done so for some time. I also keep changing my blog name, in a tireless quest to find one that expresses the full depth and breadth of my smart-assedness (long-time readers now remember me). Anyways, I thought I'd pop my head back in with a brief post on the election, more specifically, "what it means to me."

All the polls are now calling the election for Obama; most even have him winning Ohio (Larry Sabato, a professor of political science at the University of Virginia, is predicting 364 electoral votes for Obama). This isn't news, of course, but it makes me anxious and pessimistic. It's all just setting up too perfectly for a nightmare finish. I'll probably spend the evening at home alone, slugging gin and growling at the computer (I don't have a television, so at least I'll be spared that spectacle) until it's clear Obama has won. Of course my hope is that all the young people and professionals who only have cell phones have been drastically unrepresented in the polls, and Obama will run away with it. Until then, though, I won't be able to relax.

I currently live in one of the most absurdly red/socially conservative parts of the country (only possible explanation: this was me in a past life). If Obama does win, I'll probably stagger over to the nearby Burger King to talk trash. "Yeah, we got a black man for president. Bow down, redneck bitchez!!!"

And that, in essence, is what the election means to me. No, not (just) an occasion for drunken trash-talking at the BK Lounge. I'm in my early thirties, and I honestly didn't think I'd see a black president in my lifetime. It would be nice to interpret this election as some kind of turning point in US history or political culture, towards a more progressive and humane public life. But given the fact that Proposition 8 might pass in California, I just don't see it. We're still a nation of homophobic rednecks, even in supposedly crazy left-wing states like California. But we're less racist rednecks than we've ever been before, and if we succeed in electing a black -- and eminently superior -- presidential candidate, we will have taken the most significant step I've seen in my lifetime toward realizing the promise of the Declaration of Independence, and made Jefferson, Lincoln, and King proud.

And all it took was five years of a pointless and ruinous war entered into under false pretenses, the consequent deaths of thousands of Americans and countless Iraqis, a ten-trillion-dollar national debt, an environmental record worthy of Bulgaria in the 1970s, the effective suspension of habeas corpus and the 4th Amendment, government use of secret detentions and torture, the worst global financial crisis since the worst global financial crisis in history, that whole Katrina thing, Abu Ghraib, Dick Cheney's claims that the office of the vice-president is an independent branch of government somehow superior to Congress, Karl Rove, and "Mission Accomplished."

But, hey, I'll take it; don't think for a second I won't. U-S-A, bitches.

Voting stories

By Libby Spencer

This first one is from yesterday, but I'm including it anyway. Hecate passes on a beautiful story and photo from an Obama rally in Raleigh, NC.

Hecate also pulls a Tarot card. It's a very good omen. Might be NSFW if you work in very straight-laced place. It's just a picture of a card with a naked female angel, but use caution.

Pete Abel in Missouri saw lots of young people excited about voting.

1000 students lined up at Penn State.

Twitter the vote.

Turn out stories from many different locations.

(Cross-posted at The Impolitic.)

Moved to tears

By Libby Spencer

Although I weep at the end of It's a Wonderful Life every year, I'm not really one to cry over every little thing. I've been surprised how often a story about this race has made me so teary-eyed. Today's tear jerkers: First a voting story from Glen.

And I have a wonderful image from my small precinct to share. A young African-American mother can to vote with her three young daughters — we have those partially-enclosed plastic "booths." When she went to mark her vote, she told the girls "come, touch my hand, be a part of this — it's something you're going to remember the rest of your life."

Obama's first statement about his grandmother's death.



I'm just crushed that she didn't live one more day to see him to the end of his long journey. One bright spot in this dark moment is that yes, her vote will count.

(Cross-posted at The Impolitic.)

What is Sarah Palin hiding in her medical records?

By Michael J.W. Stickings

At long last, and after much dithering, Palin has released her medical records!

Wait... no, she didn't.

All her campaign released -- late last night, right before the election -- was a rather Panglossian two-page letter from her doctor, one Cathy Baldwin-Johnson of the Providence Health and Services Alaska clinic in Anchorage. "Governor Palin is in excellent health and has no known health problems," the letter declares.

Andrew Sullivan, who has been all over this story, is suitably unimpressed: "The timing of the release should... surely be interpreted as a giant finger to the press. Releasing this letter one hour before polling day begins and refusing to provide any actual documentation is not an answer.

What is Palin hiding?

Yes. We. Can.

By Libby Spencer


Election day at last. People in my internet circles are reporting long lines and no lines. Everyone is in a good mood. You can feel the hope. It's so palpable, you could eat it for breakfast.

Dixville Notch, NH, traditionally the first to report results, has it for Obama in a landslide, 15-6.

Obama closed out his campaign with 90,000 at a rally in Manassas, Virginia last night. This morning in Richmond, all their voting machines broke down. Some confusion at first, but they now have paper ballots. Good. Harder to steal the vote that way.

Sean is on the road and takes a look at the Obama ground game in Georgia. I'm too superstitous to make predictions, but that state could surprise us.

Over in Right Blogstantinople and Wingnut Punditryville, heads are already exploding. Take your pick of comical coverage here. Breathless posts on McCain's optimism, horrified indignation over imagined voting fraud, or dire warnings about our country lurching to the left.

Meanwhile, I don't know how much blogging I'll be doing today. I'm not much for hour-by-hour analysis, but I expect to be sharing voting stories as they come in.

In the interim, visualize victory.

[Photo credit]

(Cross-posted at The Impolitic.)

"Ayers and Obama: Same Polling Place"

By Michael J.W. Stickings

So reports Washington Wire (at the right-wing Wall Street Journal).

And?

(How is this news? How is this anything other than the WSJ trying to keep alive an anti-Obama smear even on polling day?)

Not a rejection of conservatives

By Creature

This just now on MSNBC from conservative water-carrier Roger Simon:

"We should not read too much ideologically into the results tonight if Barack Obama even has a really big win. I think it may be a vote by Americans who are tired of ideology in their politics and government and saw Barack Obama as the less ideological choice, as a choice for change to actually accomplish concrete achievements rather than take the country to the left or to the right."

Yes, Roger, despite the potential for a total and absolute rejection of everything conservative tonight, the country really didn't mean to reject your ideology and the country is still firmly center-right. Except it's not.

(Cross-posted at State of the Day.)

Countdown clock = 0 days until the election

By Carol Gee

George W. Bush has 76 more days in office. That seems somehow fitting, as in 1776 A.D., the year we declared our independence. It has been a long eight years.

It is a big relief to be able to watch television without having to keep the remote in hand, poised to "zap" away the latest inanity* from the McCain-Palin campaign. And we will be through with campaign advertising of all kinds. Politico proclaimed, "The curtain finally falls."

Numbers are flying everywhere. We are making predictions, calculating percentages, divining results, modeling statistics, and taking exit polls, hoping to make the 2004 map look different tomorrow. We are all trying to capture what's in the crystal ball for November 4, 2008, a momentous day. Real Clear Politics predicts Obama 278, McCain 132 electoral votes. Glenn Greenwald posts his "conservative" predictions today.

So sad and ironic -- Just one day shy of living to see her grandson elected to the highest office in the land, Barack Obama's grandmother died peacefully in her sleep in Hawaii early Monday morning. Obama finished the last full day of his campaign speaking through tears to the large crowds that had gathered in several states. These was among the most poignant of scenes that I can remember in a while. Most of us would not have been able to do it. In my opinion, Obama showed a level of trust in his audiences that indicates a very open and healthy spirit. This morning he voted, and the campaign sent out Michelle Obama's message:

Today is Election Day. The opportunity to set our country on a new path has never felt more real than it does right now. The polls are open in most places, and people are already making their voices heard for change.

. . . This is the day when we have to commit to doing everything we can. We can't afford not to -- for our families, our communities, and our future.

Today will be a long day of long lines and nervous stomachs.# Lots of things can and will go wrong during the elections.# Republicans are suffering the most of all from worry, disappointment# and recriminations. Meanwhile, "the world hopes for its first President,"# as Newsweek headlines a very good article.

Hat Tip Key: Regular contributors of links to leads are "betmo"* and Jon#.

(Cross-posted at South by Southwest.)

Political history

By Mustang Bobby

One of the recent Questions of the Day at Shakesville was "What's your first memory of a political campaign?" or something in that vein. Mine was in 1956 when my older sister and brother taught me "Whistle while you work! Stevenson's a jerk!" I was four and I had no idea what it meant. Then when I was eight my Cub Scout troop was recruited to canvass for Richard Nixon's run in 1960 against John F. Kennedy. All of my Catholic friends were Kennedy supporters, so I came to the logical conclusion that Catholics were Democrats. I dutifully went along with my troop, and I remember being in a political parade down Louisiana Avenue in late October 1960 in Perrysburg. There was a big cardboard "X" plastered on my bike basket and I was in a row of riders that spelled out N-I-X-O-N. It would be another ten years or so before I found out that my parents, going against their friends and long family upbringing, voted for JFK in 1960.

I don't need to bore you with my entire political-junkie life story. Suffice it to say that I have followed politics more as an observer than a participant, even though I have worked on campaigns, national and local, since I was old enough to understand the difference between the political parties and the issues that matter to me both as a person and as a citizen. My first crush, so to speak, was Bobby Kennedy, and in many ways I have never really gotten over it. I have not been as excited or energized about a candidate since then, although it's fair to say that like all teenage crushes, the intensity is never the same as the first time. And now, forty years later, I find that my ardor has mellowed and tempered with age and experience. No candidate is perfect; they will disappoint you and show their flaws, and at some point you will seriously ponder what it was you saw in them that attracted you in the first place. But unlike the mercurial passions of youth, you know that compromise, tolerance, and forgiveness are a part of every relationship, even if it's with someone who doesn't know you exist and only appealed to you for their attention because they needed your vote. As long as you realize that, you can put it in perspective: you're only choosing the leader of the free world, not your prom date.

Every candidate says that "this election is the most important in our nation's history." Well, of course they're going to say that; otherwise, why should we pay attention to them? But in truth, this election of 2008 is very important, and not just for the prospect of either electing the first black man to be president or the first woman to be vice president. This election comes front-loaded with expectations above and beyond the events that will occur after January 20, 2009. And while there is no doubt that the next few years are going to be difficult in many ways, not the least of which will be recovering from the last eight, they will be anticipated as being important because of what this election brings with it. It wasn't always so. The election of 1980 was not foreseen as momentous; most of the conventional wisdom said that Jimmy Carter would be re-elected over Ronald Reagan and the 1980s would go on as before. No one really saw the tectonic shift in the Republican Party coming, either, at the hands of the evangelical Christians. Now, half my lifetime later, we are seeing what a lot of people consider to be the end of the aftershocks of that election, and the beginning tremors of another. That may easily be; only history will tell. But I have the feeling that no matter what happens tonight, this election really is one of the most important in our history. I can't help but feel a little more than amazed that I've been a participant and observer.

So, if you haven't already, participate in history and vote.

(Cross-posted from Bark Bark Woof Woof.)

Craziest Republican of the Day: Krazy Bill Kristol

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Just for being himself. Oh, and for saying this about Sarah Palin:

She reminds me a lot of FDR.

He may have been joking, sort of, just to annoy "the left-wing blogs," but he's still a Palin-happy nutjob.

When will the networks call it?

By Michael J.W. Stickings

As the NYT is reporting, it could be early.

CBS News Senior Vice President Paul Friedman: "We could know Virginia at 7. We could know Indiana before 8. We could know Florida at 8. We could know Pennsylvania at 8. We could know the whole story of the election with those results. We can't be in this position of hiding our heads in the sand when the story is obvious."

If it's obvious. And it could be, not long after 8 pm.

Reaction predictions 2

By Michael J.W. Stickings

See also: Reaction Predictions 1.

Creature

• I'm looking at a popular vote win for Obama of 54% to 45% (1% 3rd party).
• This will translate into a huge electoral college win, but I suck at math so I'll leave that to the experts.
• I think the Dems will fall just shy of that elusive 60th seat for the Senate and pick up 29 seats in the House.

Mustang Bobby

• Obama will win, but I doubt that he will get over 50% of the vote and over 300 electoral votes.
• I think the Democrats will gain seats in the Senate but not clear 60. I think they will add to their House margin, perhaps as high as 250. I don’t hold out hope that the three Cuban-American Republicans here in South Florida (the Diaz-Balart brothers and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen) will lose, but they will have the daylights scared out of them.
• I think the Prop 8 – the same-sex marriage measure in California – will be very close but will fail. In Florida, Amendment 2 – the same thing as Prop 8 – will pass, ironically because of the high turnout for Barack Obama in the African-American communities. They tend to run conservative on issues such as gay rights, and they will probably be the margin that gets the Yes vote over 60%, the supermajority needed to pass a constitutional amendment in Florida.

Feel the optimism

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Believe it or not, and justified or not, the McCain campaign is:

VERY OPTIMISTIC!

This according to right-wing blogger Gateway Pundit, posting on a Fox News report: "Carl Cameron who is traveling with the McCain Campaign says John McCain is the most optimistic as he has been in 14 years!"

Basically, the McCain people think they've pulled narrowed the race significantly and are winning undecideds.

Make of this what you will.

Done voted

By Creature

It was a tough call, but in the end I went for the terrorist-socialist-communist-baby killer. Yay.

Reaction predictions 1

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Some predictions, this election day morning, from members of the Reaction team:

Carl

• Obama will win 313 electoral votes. The Senate will see a 61-vote Democratic majority. The House will go as most predictors have said, another 30 seats or so Democratic.
• This will be the single largest repudiation of any political party in history and will seal Bush's legacy as the worst president ever.

Carol Gee

• Electoral votes: Obama = 289; McCain = 249.
• Popular vote totals: a 10% increase in turnout to 133,175,959 (over 2004 presidential total of 121,106,905). Obama 55% = 73,246,777, McCain 43% = 57,265,662, Others 2% = 2,663,519.
• Senate will end up with 57 Democrats & 43 Republicans. House will have 258 Democratic members, 177 Republicans.

Greg Prince

• I am excessively optimistic here. I am giving Obama 379 electoral votes.
• OK, yes, that is unreasonable and it will probably be closer to 350 electoral votes. But it's going to be a heck of a night none the less.
• I will continue my optimism by forecasting 60 Senate seats and 253 House seats for the Democrats.
• And while we're at it, the anti-gay initiatives will fail in California and Florida, but succeed in Arizona.

J. Thomas Duffy

• Obama, in a romp.
• Upwards of 290, or more, electoral votes, and 53-55% of the popular vote.
• Senate will come close to 60, around 58-59. In the House, the Dems should go over 250.

Barack to the future

By Carl

I went to vote today.

I got to my polling place at 7:15 am. I like voting early. I like getting home at night and knowing I've fulfilled my obligations for the day.

Normally, I vote somewhere around 7:45. Usually it's me, the poll workers and maybe one or two poll watchers, depending on how tight the local races are. My district is reliably Democratic, more so as it has become something of a haven for artists.

I get to talk to the poll workers, usually ladies of a certain age in my neighborhood who make a few bucks by jotting down numbers on a card and a sheet of paper and wishing you well. Sometimes, I'll bring coffee because I know they've been there since 5 or so, and have a long dead stretch of time until 9 or 10 pm.

Usually, I'm voter number four in my ED. In NYC, we divide our precincts up into Assembly Districts and then Election Districts. That means my ED is basically the four square blocks around my house. My immediate neighborhood is a mix of deeply blue-collar homeowners, one or two who are pretty Republican, and a large dollop of single men and women, with a sprinkling of young families. Usually, this means I'm one of the first people up in the morning, nevermind out and voting.

My polling place is the local elementary school. On a good day, say when Clinton ran for re-election in 1996, there might be twenty people voting at any one time that early.

Today, I had heard rumours that the turnout was already gearing up to be spectacular. That's why I decided to get there early. I wanted to witness it.

In one ED, just one, there were some seventy five people lined up when I got there. Think about it: usually, twenty people across something like 20 EDs. Today, 75 in just one. I was fortunate. It wasn't mine. I did have to stand in line.

I was voter number 25 in my ED. Remember, I'm usually a half hour later and number four or so. Six times as many voters in three-fourths the time in my ED alone.

I get the sense there's a welling up in this nation. A repudiation of the evil attempts to take this nation back to a time when things were better... for white men.

I'm not sure what finally woke America up. Katrina? Perhaps. Iraq? Possibly. September 11 and the watered down accusations of the 9/11 Commission's report? Likely.

Somewhere along the line, Americans looked at government-by-Republican and said "enough". In drips and drabs, to be sure. We'll put up with a lot, and will be very forgiving, very... Christian.

There is, however, an undeniable momentum to the future, towards progress. We are, to coin a phrase, heading Barack to the Bridge to the 21st Century.

I can write this on election morning, November 2, with the results unknown, much less unannounced, because frankly, it doesn't really matter. Obama can win, Obama can lose, but this boulder will not endure Sisyphian efforts to roll it up the hill of reactionary thinking any longer, it will flatten those who choose to get in its way. If Obama somehow manages to lose this election -- no matter, in 2012, Hillary will prevail. There is no stopping this motion. The inertia is too great.

If Obama loses, it just means the right wing has thrown John McCain in front of the rock to momentarily bounce it around a bit, but McCain with a fully Democratic congress, and a GOP torn asunder, will be less of an impediment than many on the right would wish.

In 1980, 1984, 1988, 2000, and 2004, I had hoped that America would finally see the sham being foisted upon them by the Republican party, shackling us to our jobs and to an indentured servitude of lifelong indebtedness while the government does nothing for the "little guy", the "Joe the Plumbers" of America. It worried me that, as we rode deeper and deeper into the abyss, as Republican leaders became less and less coy about the rapine of America's bounty, that Americans might wait until it's too late.

And indeed, they may have. It might be impossible to pull our great and wondrous nation back from the brink. But we have a chance. We have hope.

We have change. And I have never been prouder to be an American than I was to be voter number 25 this morning.

From Dixville Notch to America

By Michael J.W. Stickings

We talk about who's winning and who's losing, who's ahead and who's behind, who's up and who's down, based solely on public opinion polling (i.e., pre-election preferences).

This morning, though, at long last, there are actual results to report.

Based on first-in-the-nation voting in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, with turnout at a solid 100 percent, Obama leads McCain 15 to 6.

Election Day

Maddow on a new poll tax

By LindaBeth

Today my student asked me if I thought that a professor would let her leave class early to vote since she has class all morning and has to work immediately after. I told her what I thought, and I really felt for this student, who at 18 had the desire to vote, yet to do so meant hurting her at work or school. I teach at a community college, known for having significant percentages of students who work and attend school full time, and many are mature students returning to school for a better job. These student lead very complex, full lives and schedules.

I had that conversation in my head as I watched Rachel Maddow's live Sunday special (thank you, DVR!). I was incredibly moved by Maddow's scathing characterization of the long, long early voting lines as a poll tax. I was moved because of the way that Maddow pleas with the audience -- as voters, employers, public officials -- to persevere to vote in this historic and all-important election, and then demand that we, as a nation, fulfill our democratic values and eliminate what is effectively a poll tax. I couldn't agree with her more.

Watch her assessment here:

(Cross-posted to Smart Like Me.)

Predicting the election, by Turd Blossom and me

By Michael J.W. Stickings

For what it's worth, here -- via Ambinder -- is Karl Rove's map going into the election.

It's Obama 338, McCain 220. Over the weekend, I predicted 375 to 163 for Obama. The difference is that Rove gives Indiana (11), Missouri (11), and North Carolina (15) to McCain, whereas I give them to Obama.

Tonight, Election Day Eve, I think that my prediction may be overly optimistic. I can certainly see all three of those states going to McCain. I may change my mind in the morning, but I'm going to stick with 375 for now.

There is the risk, as a thoughtful work colleague was arguing today, of enough of an "Appalachian" vote -- by which I mean the white working-class vote in states where Hillary did well in the primaries -- against Obama to give those states to McCain, along with, however less likely, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, but I think high turnout for Obama among blacks, young people, and new voters, along with Obama's huge advantage among early voters and what by all accounts is an incredible ground campaign and get-out-the-vote effort for Obama, will not only offset but surpass any advantage McCain may have among those "Appalachian" voters.

Anyway, I'll offer my final predictions tomorrow morning.

Here, as promised, is the Rove map:

BREAKING NEWS: Obama's grandmother dies

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Sad, sad news:

Sen. Barack Obama's grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, has died following a bout with cancer, Obama and his sister, Maya Soetoro-Ng, said Monday.

She was 86.

At a rally in Charlotte, North Carolina, Monday night, the Illinois senator said "she has gone home and she died peacefully in her sleep with my sister at her side."

"I'm not going to talk about it long because it's hard to talk about," he added.

Obama remembered her as "one of those quiet heroes we have across America, who aren't famous ... but each and every day they work hard. They look after their families. They look after their children and their grandchildren."

In a statement released Monday afternoon, Obama and his sister said that Dunham was "the cornerstone of our family, and a woman of extraordinary accomplishment, strength, and humility."

"She was the person who encouraged and allowed us to take chances. She was proud of her grandchildren and great-grandchildren and left this world with the knowledge that her impact on all of us was meaningful and enduring. Our debt to her is beyond measure."

Obama, if you remember, recently took a break from campaigning to be with his grandmother in Hawaii.

If only she had been able to see the election, and perhaps, if all goes well tomorrow, to see her grandson win.

Our thoughts, needless to say, go out to Obama and his family at this difficult time.

(There's more reaction at Memeorandum. See also NYT and WaPo.)

How CNN destroyed its last remaining shred of credibility

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Well, okay, it has some credibility left, but much less now that it's hired Weekly Standard conspiracy theorist Stephen F. Hayes as a contributor.

If you don't know Hayes -- and call yourself lucky if you don't -- he's made something a name for himself over the past several years pushing the now-discredited Iraq-al Qaeda link, attempting to prove that Saddam and al Qaeda were in cahoots before the Iraq War. Not even Bush believes that anymore, and the theory, though still promoted by the likes of Doug Feith, has largely been abandoned outside of wacky neocon circles.

And yet, now he'll be at CNN peddling his lies and deceptions. (Thank you, "most trusted name in news." What fantastic standards you have. Please deposit your slogan in the nearest dustbin. Never ever use it again unless it's dripping with irony.)

This move rivals Fox News's hiring of disgraced New York Times reporter Judy Miller a while back, though it's actually much more obnoxious. Everyone knows that Fox News is a right-wing propaganda machine, after all, and Miller will fit right in. CNN, though, claims to aim for balance, genuine balance. It's bad enough that those of us who watch it have to sit through the idiotic ramblings of the likes of Bill Bennett and Bay Buchanan. Now we'll have a neocon propagandist bullshitting right along with the "best political team on television" (another slogan that ought to be ditched for the sake of public decency).

I'd say watch more MSNBC, if it's cable news you want, but, Olbermann and Maddow aside, that's the network of Pat Buchanan, Joe Scarborough, and the oft-objectionable Chris Matthews.

For more, see Yglesias and Benen.

Monday before TUESDAY marks the 11th hour

By Carol Gee

What can you say when time is running out? Talk to yourself:

• If you are a candidate, you would hope to say, "I have done my best; now the voters decide."
  
• If you are a voter who has already voted, you can say "Thank goodness!"
  
• If you haven't voted yet, you can say, "Whatever it takes . . . I'll prevail."
  
• If you are refusing to vote, even for McCain-Palin, you can say, "Shame on me."
  
• If you are a member of the media, you can say, "I'll do my honest-to-goodness best."
  
• If you are a blogger, you can say,"Hang in there; a bit of respite is coming."
  
• If you are from outside the U.S., you can say, "Good Luck to America!"

Where are we at this 11th hour? Campaign funds have been spent at an incredible rate. (Obama's "infomercial" was watched by 33.5 million people). The time for big new ideas on how to win has expired. The papers have all made their endorsements.* More Conservatives have endorsed Obama# than Democrats have endorsed McCain. The candidates that head both parties have either reconciled or split. The Republican Party is more well known# to voters, as candidates are revealed at their best and worst over time.# Most voters know where the Democrats stand on the issues after four debates. New methods for getting out the vote emerged, and old methods for suppressing votes have shown up again.

After Tuesday's election results are final, we know that half of us are going to be bitterly disappointed at the outcomes. We all know that things will change# in a new administration, such as not keeping campaign promises, raising or lowering taxes,# and resolving the problems of the economic crisis in different ways than what is being tried now. New coalitions will be formed. Old groupings will break up. Democracy will again prevail.

Hat Tip Key: Regular contributors of links to leads are "betmo"* and Jon#.

(Cross-posted at South by Southwest.)

Obama is the 2004 Red Sox, not the 2003 edition

By Dan Tobin

In Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS, the Red Sox jumped out to an early lead against the Yankees, who'd thoroughly dominated the Sox for what seemed like eternity. In the 7th inning, we had a monstrous 8-1 lead, and yet not a soul in Red Sox Nation was comfortable. "They're still the Red Sox," we collectively thought. "They're going to find a way to screw this up." We thought back to our eighth inning lead in 2003 and how the Yankees came back to crush us like always.

Now Obama has a huge lead in the polls and his supporters are thinking, "He's still a Democrat. He's going to find a way to screw this up." We even point to the optimism heading into 2004 and how the GOP crushed us like always. Of course, we now forget that John Kerry never had an 8-1 lead. It was more like we were heading into the 9th trailing 5-4, but instead of Mariano Rivera coming out, for some reason it was Paul Quantrill. "Oh, we can get to this guy," we all thought. "We'll totally win!" And then a few weak ground-outs later, Bush was reelected.

But we're now staring at a 10-3 lead in the ninth and McCain's staring hard at his bench, wondering if he should have pulled the trigger on Tim Pawlenty at the trading deadline. We could still lose this thing, no doubt, and there will be no counting of chickens. This is time to knuckle under, but not to panic. In 2004, Curt Schilling went directly from the Rolling Rally to Ohio to stump for Bush; the state went red and I've never forgiven him. This weekend the big Schill was stumping for McCain in New Hampshire, comparing McCain's situation to being down 0-3 against the Yankees in 2004. As I see it, that's the right series, but the wrong lesson.

* * *

I've blogged about what I'm doing for the campaign not to boast or try to make you feel badly, but hopefully to encourage anyone interested in the outcome of this election to, as James Brown once said, Get up, get into it, get involved. Until this weekend I'd given money, worn the button and T-shirt, and composed a lot of blog posts. I finally feel like I'm doing something, and I wish I'd done more. If you want your candidate to win this thing as badly as I want mine to, go make some Get Out The Vote calls from a call-center, from home, or even from work. The signs posted at our call center yesterday said, "Elections are won in the last 72 hours." Polls don't matter if your people don't get out to vote. So tomorrow, vote. But if you really care, do what Meaghan and I are doing: take the day off from work, head to your local call center, andmake a difference. Your children's children will thank you.

(cross-posted at Surgical Strikes)

The "honesty" of Mitt Romney

By Michael J.W. Stickings

On Today this morning, host Meredith Vieira asked the seemingly very pro-McCain Mitt Romney if the McCain campaign has been "dignified and honest."

In fact, she asked him three times. (Think Progress has the video and transcript here.)

Becuase Romney refused to answer the first two times, first blaming Obama for being "extraordinarily negative," then suggesting that the race will come down to national security and jobs.

With Vieira evidently exasperated, Romney finally called the McCain campaign "presidential," once again refusing to answer the question.

Apparently, for Romney, "presidential" is not the same as "dignified." Apparently, for Romney, being presidential means being undignified: "It's the way it's been ever since I've been around."

More likely, though, Romney knows perfectly well that the McCain campaign has been anything but dignified -- not least towards him -- and, when pressed, he simply blurted out a word he thought would put Vieira's line of questioning to an end: presidential.

He not exactly McCain's most reliable surrogate, is he? But, then, we already know he's looking past McCain to a run in 2012.

If he doesn't think McCain's been dignified, one wonders what he'll make of Palin four years from now.

The Republican wedge: Sarah Palin, the culture wars, and the 2008 presidential election

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Peter Beinart writes this in today's WaPo:

Why has America turned on Sarah Palin? Obviously, her wobbly television interviews haven't helped. Nor have the drip, drip of scandals from Alaska, which have tarnished her reformist image. But Palin's problems run deeper, and they say something fundamental about the political age being born. Palin's brand is culture war, and in America today culture war no longer sells. The struggle that began in the 1960s -- which put questions of racial, sexual and religious identity at the forefront of American politics -- may be ending. Palin is the end of the line.

I got caught up in the culture war(s) when I was at Tufts in the early-'90s. The economy wasn't going all that well, but, overall, it was a time of prosperity and, with the Cold War just ended, hope. The problem is, with prosperity comes the sort of security, which in itself isn't a bad thing, that gives people the time to focus on other things, like, say, "moral values" and "culture." In other words, when you aren't focusing on your immediate security, economic or otherwise, you tend to turn your attention to other battles.

Beinart is right, to a point, that "Palin's attacks are also failing because of generational change. The long-running, internecine baby boomer cultural feud just isn't that relevant to Americans who came of age after the civil rights, gay rights and feminist revolutions."

The thing is, I have no confidence that Palin "may be the last culture warrior on a national ticket for a very long time," or that a new, post-culture war "political age" is being born. While it is true that economic insecurity and, lest we forget, national security insecurity are the dominant issues of the day, "culture" is a weapon Republicans are not about to lay down.

We have seen that this year -- we see it today just a day before the election. Losing on the issues, and in the polls, the McCain-Palin campaign, the Republican Party, and the conservative movement that supports them, have turned to "culture" to drive wedges into the electorate. What is "Joe the Plumber" if not a weapon of the culture war? What are all the smears of Obama if not, in this sense, "cultural"? The attacks on Obama haven't been issue-based, after all, nor even experience-based. Rather, they've been personal: Obama portrayed as a dirty and dangerous Other. Even the attacks on Obama and Biden over taxes have been waged as part of the old-style culture war: Obama and Biden portrayed as socialists, as un-American.

And I needn't even mention the bigoted claim, frequently heard at McCain-Palin rallies, that Obama is a Muslim (because, for many, there is something terribly wrong with being Muslim), and therefore a terrorist (because, for many, the two are the same), or the unpleasant fact that many people won't vote for Obama simply because he's black, or the fact that McCain's claim that Obama wants to redistribute wealth has racial/racist undertones, or the fact that racism plays a large part in the attacks on Obama over Jeremiah Wright (because predominantly black churches like Wright's can be easily vilified, for many, as somehow un-Christian and anti-American).

And, as for national security, it was Bush turned 9/11, the war on terror, and the Iraq War into weapons of the culture war. McCain hasn't followed Bush in this regard, perhaps to his credit (though circumstances change -- 2008 is not 2004), but the various attempts to smear Obama over his association with Bill Ayers, for example, including from McCain and Palin themselves, were straight out of the Republican playbook.

This is not about to change. Republicans and conservatives will continue to seek to divide Americans in terms of what is loosely called "culture." For them, there will always be an "us" and a "them," a divide to be exploited and exaggerated whenever politically expedient, even as the country continues to move beyond identity politics, even as race, religion, gender, and sexual orientation lose their grip on American political consciousness overall.

True, much of the political discourse in the United States going forward will focus on such issues as the economy, national security, health care, education, and the environment, and there are Republicans and conservatives who will join in with substantive policy positions, but, when it comes down to electoral politics, to winning and losing, "culture" isn't going away anytime soon.

Minnesota dreamin'

By Michael J.W. Stickings

You gotta hand it to Republicans, some of them, wishful thinking fully on display, are still holding out hope in the face if imminent defeat, if not disaster.

Take my friend Ed Morrissey, for example, one of the brightest of the bunch.

At Hot Air today, Ed gleefully -- yet not without his characteristic sobriety -- points to a new Survey USA poll in his home state of Minnesota showing Obama up by just three points over McCain, 49 to 46.

Bad news for Obama, right, for whom Minnesota should be, and has been seen to be, a lock?

Well, hold on.

There are always outliers among the polls, both national and state, and this one's clearly one of them. The current RCP Average is Obama +9.8. The Star Tribune has him up by 11, Republican-leaning Rasmussen by 12, NBC by 8, and Research 2000 by 15.

And, as Nate Silver notes, Survey USA has had a "huge" Republican lean in Minnesota all year.

There's always that one poll, whether nationally or in a given state, that can be taken out of context and promoted for partisan or simply hopeful purposes as the one that matters. For many on the right, Zogby often supplies the celebration-inducing outlier. This time, it's just a Republican leaner.

The fact is, and as the polls show, Minnesota, which went for Gore in '00 and Kerry in '04, is solidly with Obama in '08.

Hello? Hello? Is there anybody out there?

By Michael J.W. Stickings

McCain's first event today, a rally in Tampa, drew just 1,100 people.

(As the St. Petersburg Times noted, "Bush drew at least 15,000 people to a rally just across the street on the Sunday before the 2004 election.")

Feel the excitement.

The lion sleeps tonight

By Carl

A large part of me is thinking that Barack Obama is going to walk away from the election tomorrow with the largest mandate a president has had since Ronald Reagan.

If not more.

And part of me, the part of me that roots for the Mets, the Rangers, and yes, the Democrats, is worried. This is no time for complacency and if we are to be accused of anything, better we should be accused of running up the score than in losing graciously.

Al Gore lost graciously, thanks in large part to the spiteful vendetta of Ralph Nader. Did anyone want a repeat of the past eight years?

Not that I believe, in his heart of hearts, that John McCain and George W Bush are soulmates, cloned from the same dreck and flotsam that would see this country drift rather than take the reins of its own destiny. I don't. I believe McCain sincerely wants to do right by doing good.

I just don't think he has either the energy or the capacity anymore after selling his soul, one slice at a time, for the past eight years.

This was why, despite a bruising and at time bitter primary campaign in which my candidate lost, I was able to instantly support Barack Obama. The John McCain of 2000, the one able to speak his mind and be funny from time to time, the one I was able to disagree with without being disagreeable, him I might have had a harder time turning down.

Not this guy:

Not ever. How could I even respect a man who was so thoroughly humiliated, even to the extent of having his adopted baby's parentage questioned, by the very man he now had to kowtow to in order to get the nomination?

It is an ignominious epitaph for "The Maverick" that his political career should end in such a shabby way.

I say "end" because I assume at his age that he might even resign the Senate given the amount of animosity he has had to raise on both sides of the aisle in this campaign. He doesn't have the luxury of two or more re-election bids to re-establish his respect.

His chance came eight years ago, and he blew it. I suspect one reason he was practically given the nomination is that he deserved his shot.

That and the fact that ultimately, he and his campaign were about the strongest contenders against an Obama or Clinton ticket. I don't claim to understand the Republican mindset, but my guess is the thinking went something along the lines of "Well, we're going to get creamed this year, the economy will be in the tank, we need to send out the person who has the best shot of keeping the moderates on the sidelines."

He ran, I think, perhaps the best campaign he could, given the circumstances. You know the old saw about being given lemons and making lemonade.

McCain was given rotting lemons and a moosehunter and managed to make something not quite as nasty as moose piss. If that is damning with faint praise, it is nonetheless praise.

It troubles me, this other side of me, the one that obsesses about the possibilities of losing. I realize an awful lot of is was created by the media, who don't want to pronounce the race over until it is over, even if it is over, even if McCain himself believes it is over.

After all, what's going to draw voters to watch on Tuesday night? Not the spectacle of the first minority candidate to win the Presidency, no, of course not. It's all about "Does the old white guy stand a chance still?"

It's a sad state of affairs for our nation when even our Presidential elections have to be sold like a season ending cliffhanger.

Complacency, then, is our worst enemy. If everyone who said they would vote for Obama would simply get out and vote, then my fears would be allayed.

So that's job one for tomorrow: get out the vote. Take the day off and take five people to the polls to vote.

Job number two: remind people why you support Obama. You don't need talking points to do this. You don't need to know that his healthcare plan is better than McCain's or his tax cuts will provide three times the relief for you that McCain's will.

All you need to do is make it personal. So ask yourself, why ARE you supporting Obama? If you can't answer that question easily, then you need to think it through a bit more.

This is your vote, dammit, your birthright, and at the risk of losing a vote or two to McCain or worse, Nader, you ought not to waste it. Be sure you understand why you are voting the way you are voting, even if it's for some silly emotional reason. It doesn't matter. In our emotions are often the most compelling arguments made.

Number three: after you've voted, make sure to tell your friends you have (hell, Starbucks is giving away coffee for free to people who voted!), because while the five you take to the polls might vote, there are going to be huge numbers of people out there who will forget. Every reminder helps.

That means emails, Twitters, blogposts, phone calls, and casual run-intos in the street. Talk it up. It's important. This election will be historic, people might actually brag about their vote. Get a jump on the bandwagon!

Finally, once you have voted, and are in for the night, find a comfortable place to sit, and be sure to have plenty of relaxing music on hand. It's going to be nerve-wracking by design. The networks won't have the guts to call it for Obama the way Fox called it for Bush in 2000. It will last into the early morning and it will be tense.

I think the Pennsylvania results will be the place where the networks milk it for all its worth. Just my opinion, but if I was going to try to steal an election, that's where I'd put my resources, and the "tell" has been in for weeks now that McCain's focused on that area: Ohio and Pennsylvania.

I don't think ultimately it will matter, but I'm not willing to bet the next eight years on it.

Get out and vote.

(Cross-posted to Simply Left Behind.)

The aunt and the smear: The right-wing effort to make an issue of an Obama relative

By Michael J.W. Stickings

I didn't comment on the illegal aunt story over the weekend because the status of one of Obama's aunts isn't important in the context of the election. But allow me to review:

So Obama's aunt, Zeituni Onyango, is living in the U.S. illegally, having been denied asylum four years ago. Big deal. Well, it's a big deal fo Ms. Onyango, and I take nothing away from that, and I wish her well, but her status has no bearing on Obama's run for the presidency. The fact is, and I take him at his word here, Obama was not aware of his aunt's status. Ms. Onyango donated a small amount of money ($265) to the Obama campaign, but that money will be refunded (as it is illegal for non-permanent residents to donate to presidential campaigns -- I had a Green Card when I lived in the U.S., way back when, but it expired sometime after I returned to Canada, which is why I haven't been able to give money to Obama).

The whole "story" has been a right-wing smear. As TPM Muckraker reported on Saturday, it was The Times, a Rupert Murdoch-owned British newspaper, that first "broke" the story. "From there, the story quickly got taken up by the right-wing echo chamber. Fox News (also Murdoch-owned, of course), Drudge, the Boston Herald, and various conservative blogs -- as well as some mainstream outlets -- began breathlessly hyping the story." But The Times only reported that Ms. Onyango is living in a Boston public-housing project. It was the AP that broke the news of her illegal immigration status. And how did the AP come to acquire that information? As TPM notes, "it looks like someone in the Bush administration leaked the information, with the goal of throwing a last-minute wrench into Obama's campaign. And someone else confirmed it, with similar motives." (Josh Marshall has more here.) In other words, someone broke the law in order to smear Obama and benefit McCain.

One media outlet referred to "Obama's illegal immigrant aunt problem," and typical right-wing smearmongers like Michelle Malkin have kept up the hype, but the story is hardly any sort of election-altering October Surprise, and, thankfully, it has pretty much disappeared into obscurity, where it belongs. As Salon's Alex Koppelman pointed out, "John McCain's campaign is steering clear of the issue," probably preferring to let its surrogates in the right-wing media, including the blogosphere, push it, but, again, it didn't really go anywhere.

In desperation, any smear will do, of course, but this one, targeting a middle-aged Kenyan asylum-seeker with whom Obama apparently has no active relationship, didn't work.

**********

UPDATE: From the Politico's Ben Smith, it looks like pro-McCain robocalls from a dubious Republican group are including Obama's aunt alongside Rev. Wright. So, yes, some are still trying to make an issue of it.

Pre-Election Day hopes

By Edward Copeland

Most of these hopes (or wishes) are based on the assumption that Barack Obama's win is really going to happen Tuesday. They are in no particular order.

I hope that Obama's victory is decisive and not close enough to allow the GOP to try to delegitimize his presidency before he's even sworn in.

I hope that the old McCain that surfaces from time to time reappears in his concession speech, displaying the honor and decency I know still dwells somewhere within the man who was the head of one of the most disgusting campaigns I've seen and flip-flopped and abandoned most of his most attractive qualities. On the plus side, his campaign has been the worst-run presidential effort since Dukakis. (My superhope is a fantasy where McCain 2000 breaks out of the cage in which he's been held all year and strangles McCain 2008 with piano wire.)

I hope that whether the Democrats get a 60-seat majority in the Senate or not, they kick Censorin' Joe Lieberman to the curb and out of their caucus. If he switches to the GOP, so be it. The Dems can count more reliably on moderate Republican votes than his anyway and he doesn't deserve any chairmanships.

With the Democrats controlling all three branches, I hope they don't overreach. Our deficit and debt are at records and our problems are too deep to go off the deep end until things abroad and in the economy get smoothed out. If they do, it's the surest way to give the GOP a congressional comeback in 2010 and jeopardize an Obama second term.

I hope that at least one red state that no one has bothered to poll in will go to Obama.

I hope that at least one incumbent GOP senator that everyone assumed safe gets defeated (for me, specifically, I wish that Andrew Rice can somehow kick Jim Inhofe out of the Senate).

I hope voting problems are few and insignificant.

55%-44% - Ending with upward movement

By Creature

With the last polls posted it's looking good for the man with the big ears and the funny name. This is all you need to know [from Gallup]:

The trend data clearly show Obama ending the campaign with an upward movement in support, with eight to 11 percentage point leads among likely voters in Gallup's last four reports of data extending back to Oct. 28. Obama's final leads among both registered voters and likely voters are the largest of the campaign

McCain likes to scream about ponies and tightening races, but the last days have proven he's grasping at straws.

America will change tomorrow.

(Cross-posted at State of the Day.)

Rest, relaxation, and football

By Michael J.W. Stickings

I took a bit of a much-needed break from blogging on Sunday, mostly to watch football, spend quality time with the family (which, believe it or not, includes football), rest, and gather my energy for the next few days.

For those of us bloggers with families and jobs, after all, there isn't always much time to blog, and so we blog at crazy hours, when we can, which for me often means at night, late at night.

I'll be blogging as much as I can over the next few days, as will many of the co-bloggers, so I encourage you all to keep checking back regularly.

I do intend to live-blog the election returns Tuesday evening and night, probably from 6 or 7 pm until... well, for as long as I can.

I don't intend to get much sleep the next few nights. Hence the day off.

If you missed anything, make sure to check out Carol's round-ups of last week and the weekend.

I'll be back soon with more.

The Reaction in review (Nov. 2, 2008)

A weekend's reactions that deserve a second look:


Sunday

By Dan Tobin: "Getting schooled by an Indiana red-stater" -- Dan takes us through his interesting day as a phone banker for a get-out-the -vote-effort (+photo and 4 comments).

By Carol Gee: "Constitutional protections under fire in this election, or not?" -- Viewing current campaign issues through a constitutional lens.


Saturday

By Michael J.W. Stickings: "Sarah Palin, pranked" -- Michael insightfully reveals much more than we would ordinarily ever know about this Canadian coups: a treat that elicited several interesting comments!

By Michael J.W. Stickings: "The new ugly: More ignorance and bigotry in the McCain-Palin mob" -- Michael concludes, "Not all McCain-Palin supporters are like that, to be sure, but many of them are, and the ugliness, vicious attacks on Obama, some of it undeniably racist, has become a defining feature both of the McCain-Palin campaign and of its grassroots support."

By J. Thomas Duffy: "John Cleese on Olbermann" -- Cleese's delightful appearance was such a treat for all who loved Monty Python (includes video and bonus photo).

Getting schooled by an Indiana red-stater

By Dan Tobin

Today I made 159 phone calls to Indiana voters. Only one called me back.

Yesterday we phone banked in the neighborhood, and it was a medium-sized operation but they provided phones for us to call New Hampshire. Today we went downtown to the Last Call for Change Headquarters where we called Indiana using our cell-phones. It was a much bigger operation and the Indiana voters were definitely a bit crustier. I was hung up on a few times, and the five McCain supporters I reached stayed on the line for a "What do you think of that?" moment. Each time, I merely said "Thanks for your time" and moved onto the next caller. This is Get Out The Vote. You don't make your case, you don't spend a lot of time on individual callers. I didn't even ask who people were voting for, merely whether they were voting and if they knew where to go. If you enable a McCain/Nader/Barr voter, so be it. All in the name of good participatory democracy.

I can understand anyone being annoyed at a phone call from a stranger, especially if they live in a swing state. But one caller went above and beyond, actually checking her Caller ID (or using *69) to call me back on my cell-phone, leaving the following voicemail:

Of course, calling me back took a good amount of effort. I wonder if she's given that kind of effort to campaigning for her chosen candidate? If not, maybe she should rethink which is a better use of her time, encouraging potential McCain voters to get out the vote or venting at someone obviously invested enough in Obama to skip an afternoon of football viewing.

I should also point out that she used the word "Obama" in her call two more times than I used the word "McCain" in my 159. In fairness, most of those calls were wrong numbers and error messages. But my script had nothing anti-McCain, or even pro-Obama, at least any more so than a button that says "Vote Obama!" The message I left on her voicemail began with "I hope you'll be voting for Barack Tuesday" and ended with "Thanks for your support of Barack Obama" and in between provided details on where she'd be voting. Could be annoying, but it would be hard to say this was inflammatory or insulting stuff. Still, she felt the need to call back to say my preferred candidate is friends with terrorists.

I was trying to figureout what I'd do if I got a McCain GOTV the call, and probably I'd just say, "Thanks but no thanks." Maybe if I was being really devious, I'd ask a lot of questions and waste the caller's time so they wouldn't use that time calling other potential McCainiacs. I could only hope to get this guy calling. But really, how pissed off and upset do you have to be to call back a phone banker? I don't usually get a first-hand window into right-wing id, and I can't say I'm a better person for hearing it today. But still, interesting.

Looks like we're just where we were in 2000 and 2004, where no matter who wins, the people who voted for the losing side are going to be absolutely DEVASTATED. Bush never actually reached out to his opponents' supporters, and things only got increasingly acrimonious. If it's Obama left standing, I have a lot of hope he'll at least make a good faith effort at healing. If it's McCain... I'm less hopeful. But I'm also of the opinion that if we get to point of having to cross that bridge, there'll be much, much bigger fish to fry. And I'm also hopeful we won't ever get near that bridge.

(cross-posted at Surgical Strikes)

A bit about activism

By Carol Gee

Note: This was originally cross-posted at S/SW on 10/29. The buzz of the moment kept me from posting it here back then. Most of the ideas still apply.

There is no time like the present -- to be an active citizen for the good of the country. Here are some of the more obvious things you might consider doing:

• Vote if early voting is available in your state. Offer to take someone from your neighborhood or workplace with you to do the same.


• Go to your candidates' websites and make your presence known there. Write a note of encouragement, make a donation, or fill out a poll form on issues of importance to you.


• Visit your party's headquarters. Pick up some election souvenirs, or make a purchase.


• Write a letter to the editor of your local paper. Express your opinion in good form and it might get published.


• Switch channels on TV to avoid getting too exorcised by idiots. Guard your peace of mind during these tough times.


• Leave an encouraging comment at a blogsite whose author is feeling very "down and discouraged." Think about doing that for some thoughtful Republican writer, with an eye to unity, bipartisanship and reconciliation. These are very difficult times for Republicans, after all. Be magnanimous if you can.

Continuing with this week's tidbits on activism -- First, thanks to the Internet, the truth gets out.# Count your blessings as an American for your Internet freedoms.* And count the days# (82) until Bush moves out of the White House. Remember that we will soon be free of campaign advertising. It is likely, however, that we will not be free of endless news about the sad state of Republican affairs. That will continue. Please note that most Americans are good and principled people,* and that we still have our senses of humor.# It is heartwarming also that all rich men are not greedy, including T. Boone Pickins and Warren Buffett. Anyone have any good ideas for more things activists can do this week?

Bonus reads:

1. Newsweek's Fareed Zakaria's great article, "Obama For President"#
2. Bill Moyers Journal, "Media Consolidation: A primer on making your opinion heard"
3. "10 Tips for Conserving Energy This Winter," from EcoLocalizer.
4. "The 'Noosphere' - Teilhard de Chardin's vision for the Internet," by John R. Mabry
5. From Decloned, "Sunday Salon: Creativity in reading"
   

Hat Tip Key: Regular contributors of links to leads are "betmo"* and Jon#.

(Cross-posted from South by Southwest.)

Constitutional protections under fire in this election, or not?

By Carol Gee

Is the United States Constitution powerful enough to be a bulwark against the threats of its internal enemies? TPM Muckraker published (10/31/08) the Department of Justice's list of counties where DOJ election monitors will be deployed, adding that it "looks on the level." This sounds good. Five counties in Texas will be involved. Other TPM Muckraker related election stories do not sound so good:

• News that the state of Georgia may be trying to suppress voters by refusing to extend voting hours
• Colorado continued to purge voter lists, despite a settlement with voting rights groups
• Wisconsin will attempt to intimidate poll watchers with prosecutors and agents "looking for voter fraud."

"Even the least of these" -- Diverse Americans must come under the protection of of the eagle's wings. Racism does not die easily, as this election has unfortunately shown. This is a wonderful piece that illustrates my point: "Commentary: Republicans summon ugly old ghosts"# is by my favorite, Joey Galloway, a McClatchy columnist extraordinaire. He concludes with wise words:

Here's a prediction for you, for them: McCain and Palin will go down to defeat by 15 to 20 points, and they'll take a heap of Republicans down with them.

The financial collapse and the painful fallout that's stalking the nation won't be righted overnight, however. Putting Barack Obama in the White House and giving the Democrats a veto-proof majority in Congress won't mean that happy days are here again.

Hard work, sacrifice and suffering lie ahead. It could take a decade or more to repair all the damage that Bush, Dick Cheney and all their henchmen in prison, out of prison and on their way to prison have done to our economy, our military, our standing in the world, our Constitution and to civil discourse, common decency and competent governance.

In the meantime, we Americans would do well to try to remember all those things that our grandmothers told us about how to get by in hard times.

How to get by on a lot less.

How to grow a vegetable garden.

How to squeeze a nickel till the buffalo bellows.

How to appreciate the small joys of family and friends.

How to share what you have, no matter how little you have, with those who have nothing.

Someday we may be able to tell our grandchildren about the Election of '08 when we, the people, turned away from anger, hate and greed and once again embraced the better angels of our nature.

Defending their rights to say these awful things is tough but necessary. Sarah Palin made a head-spinning statement in a radio interview Friday that Glenn Greenwald brilliantly explored in a recent post. Palin's comment was to the effect that press freedom is a threat to the First Amendment. Unfortunately, this time the Constitution protection of free speech may be on the side House Minority Leader John Boehner's recent use of an expletive to describe Senator Barack Obama#. It may also be on the side of Elizabeth Dole's vile campaign ad.# Her opponent has every right to go to court protesting that she has been defamed, but candidates open themselves to being unfairly targeted when running for office.

Equality under the law -- Another right-winger, Dennis Prager's comment, that "Equality is a European value,"* is also allowed. But, thankfully, others, such as Ali Frick at Think Progress, can rebut the statement with sarcastic irony:

Or if they had looked to the United States Constitution, they may have erroneously thought “equality” was an important American value:

No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.

Thankfully, Dennis Prager is here to protect and defend American inequality.

Help is on the way -- Thinking ahead and probably assuming that OBama wins (I cannot imagine MCCain would be interested), Anthony Romero of the ACLU announced that his organization has developed an action plan for helping the next administration to restore the Constitution. To quote his e-mail:

October 31 , 2008
ACLU Releases Presidential Transition Plan to Restore Civil Liberties

In anticipation of the presidential election, the ACLU released a set of recommendations detailing steps that the new president should take to “clean house,” renew freedom, and restore the nation’s reputation.

“This past administration has left us with a disastrous legacy of bad policy, abuse of power, and civil liberties violations,” said Caroline Fredrickson, director of the Washington Legislative Office. “The next president, whoever he is, must immediately begin the process of undoing this far-reaching assault on our nation’s freedoms and core values, and the ACLU’s ‘to do’ list provides a detailed roadmap for achieving that.”

”Actions For Restoring America,” outlines actions to be taken by the next president on his first day in office, in his first 100 days, and in his first year.

The 83-page document proposes actions across a wide variety of topics, including national security, human rights, women’s rights, civil rights, drug policy, the rights of LGBT Americans, immigrants and prisoners, privacy and free speech.

Read the entire ACLU transition plan including suggested executive orders, mandates and directives from the president.

A few ideas on other questions posed in my post -- "When Judges Make Foreign Policy - United States Supreme Court," is a great analysis of how important constitutional checks and balances in foreign policy have become in recent years. Worth the read, it was written by Noah Feldman at The New York Times (10/28/08). Feldman begins,

Every generation gets the Constitution that it deserves. As the central preoccupations of an era make their way into the legal system, the Supreme Court eventually weighs in, and nine lawyers in robes become oracles of our national identity.

. . . how the justices will address critical issues of American foreign policy in the future hangs very much in the balance. This may seem like an odd way of thinking about international affairs. In the coming presidential election, every voter understands that there is a choice to be made between the foreign-policy visions of John McCain and Barack Obama. What is less obvious, but no less important, is that Supreme Court appointments have become a de facto part of American foreign policy. The court, like the State Department and the Pentagon, now makes decisions in cases that directly change and shape our relationship with the world. And as the justices decide these cases, they are doing as much as anyone to shape America’s fortunes in an age of global terror and economic turmoil.

. . . Charged with interpreting the Constitution and therefore shaping its contemporary orientation, the Supreme Court needs to be extraordinarily sensitive to the demands of history. When the court gets it wrong, the consequences can be serious. The Constitution we get will still be the one we deserve, but our deserts need not be good ones. The Constitution, let us not forget, gave us slavery and segregation. It gave us dysfunctional limitations on progressive legislation that was desperately needed in the years before the Great Depression. We like to think the Constitution is always leading us toward a more perfect union. But this has not always been the case, and as with any experiment, there is no guarantee that it will be in the future.

My conclusion today is that the Consitution will be up to the current challenges, ALL of them. Bring on the election!

Hat Tip Key: Regular contributors of links to leads are "betmo"* and Jon#.

(Cross-posted at South by Southwest.)

Truth in Comics

By Creature


If it's Sunday, it's Truth in Comics.

(Cross-posted at State of the Day.)

Sarah Palin, pranked

By Michael J.W. Stickings

As you may have heard already, a couple of notorious radio hosts on Montreal's CKOI-FM -- The Masked Avengers -- called Sarah Palin today pretending to be French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

I generally don't like "comedy" like this -- tricking people and making them look stupid -- even when Palin's the target.

But it is somewhat funny when "Sarkozy" talks about wanting to go hunting in helicopters with Palin (and, in French, mentions killing baby seals); claims that he can see Belgium from his house (which he obviously can't); says his "special Canadian advisor is Johnny Hallyday; says that singer Stef Carse is the prime minister of Canada and comedian Richard Z. Sirois the premier of Quebec; and asks if Joe the Plumber is Palin's husband (and then says the French equivalent is "Marcel the guy with bread under his armpit" -- in response, Palin says, "right, that's what it's all about...").

And, of course, Palin is utterly oblivious throughout.

She even laughs when "Sarkozy" says he just loves "killing those animals" ("take away a life, that is so fun"), and, in response to "Sarkozy"'s comment that they shouldn't take Cheney, says that she'd be "a careful shot."

She also doesn't catch on when "Sarkozy" gives the wrong names for the prime minister and premier. (Though it may be too much to fault her for not knowing the name of the premier -- it's Jean Charest, by the way -- but she doesn't even blink in responding that "Sirois" hasn't been to one of her rallies.).

It's also funny when she brings up the real Sarkozy's "beautiful wife," singer Carla Bruni: "You've added a lot of energy to your country with that beautiful family of yours," says Palin, chuckling, adding, "give her a big hug from me." Whereupon "Sarkozy" informs Palin that his wife is "so hot in bed" and has even written a long for Palin. In French, the title of the song is "Red Lipstick on a Pig," but "Sarkozy" translates it as "Joe the Plumber."

And when "Sarkozy" refers to "the documentary they made on your life," the "really edgy" Hustler video Nailin' Paylin. Palin replies, cluelessly: "Oh, good, thank you, yes."

Whereupon "Sarkozy" comes clean: "Governor, you've been pranked." Leading to an amusing last few seconds of confusion on Palin's end.

Well, okay, it's actually much funnier, as I'm going over it again for this post, than I first thought. But, if check it out for yourselves. Here it is:

Must we abandon everything we do to survive?

By Carol Gee

Quote of the day: "Every organization must be prepared to abandon everything it does to survive in the future." ~ Peter Drucker

We as a nation must be willing to abandon the old ways that do not work. We will be required to learn how to get along with our adversaries, to find common ground. New governing solutions will be required to deal with the crashing waves of problems in the wake of 8 years of Republican rule. And the Republican Party will have to abandon what it has recently been doing in order to survive.

McCain can only stand by helplessly blustering as tensions rise and Palin splits the nation and the party. Writing a guest opinion piece for the BBC, former Bush deputy assistant, Peter Wehner, conceded that the Republicans will lose on November 4. The bulk of his article is a scathing indictment of Obama; the concession came as his conclusion. To quote:

And even if you were inclined to believe that Senator Obama will govern as a centrist - a questionable claim, given his record - the Democratic Party will hold a commanding position in the House and Senate.

Speaker Pelosi and majority leader Reid and their committee chairmen - many of them partisan, ideological, and ruthless - will exert enormous pressure on Obama to move left.

From all we know about him, Senator Obama will not resist it or defy them. And that, in turn, will lead to overreach.

Which is why even though next Tuesday will be a difficult day for Republicans and conservatives, the wise ones will understand that our moment will come again, and perhaps sooner than we think.

Our task is to be ready.

After World War II a group of disparate nations in Europe had to abandon insularity and unhealthy competition in order to unite, forming the European Union. An anchor nation, Great Britain is our closest ally. What do they think of our political races? The Financial Times did a survey of influential people in the United Kingdom about the upcoming U.S. presidential election. These are a couple of the results (see linked charts, also):

• Who would you like to see win the election? Obama: 74%, McCain: 16%, Don't know: 10%
• Who do you believe will win the election? Obama: 72%, McCain: 13%, Don't know: 15%

America has always had to change in order to survive, leaving the old ways that were not working behind. Jurek Martin writes in the London Financial Times that America has a staggering capacity for change. That is good to hear because we are about to "do a 180" after 8 horrendous years with the failing Bush administration. William Drodziak says in Germany's Deutche Welle that Obama will go down in history. To quote:

Many pundits ask indeed why anybody would want a job so fraught with peril.

An advised transition: Obama has approached this staggering task with cool methodology. He has appointed two experienced advisors to head the executive transition teams that will put together his new government.

. . . In short, America and the world will probably wake up on the morning of Nov. 5 to a dramatically different government taking over in the United States. If Obama can fulfill the hopes and ambitions of the millions of American voters yearning for change, he will go down in history books as a transformational leader who brought the United States back from the precipice of decline as a world power and restored its original sense of purpose as a stalwart defender of democratic values and human rights.

In recent times we have not voted for President wisely, twice. In 2008 we hope that enough voter gullibility will be abandoned that wise choices of our leaders can prevail. Some of us think that Barack Obama has the capacity to be a good Servant-Leader. The Senate must abandon gridlock; the House must abandon Minority walk-outs. The president, the voters, the Congress, the courts -- we must unite and refine the art of follower-ship to survive as a nation. The whole world is watching.

(Cross-posted at South by Southwest.)

Time to get complacent!

By Dan Tobin

From: Prexy43 [Bush]
To: LiberalJerkwad [Tobin]
Subject: advice

Well, we're into the closing hours of the campaign. In just a few days, someone else will have the word prexy in their title. You saw my kindergarten report card when you came for dinner and Ma & Pa's -- I don't share well with others. So it's my last weekend before we have prexy and prexy-elect. I'm gonna tear it up in a sober, evangelical Christian, Texas-by-way-of-a-couple-Ivies kinda way!

But before I start shotgunning Coors Cutters, lemme give you some advice -- I mean, who's won more presidencies in the last 15 years then Capital W? I'm batting 1000 in my two career at-bats. Even Nixon was only batted .667. So I've given McBain my advice, and I told Obama where he could stick it, but what about you, my email buddy of the last four years? What about your millions of peeps across the country who are wondering, "What does the prexy want me to do?" Well I've been to 538, I can smell what Barack is cookin'. You guys are going to win, I get it, it's a done deal. So my advice to you is simple:

Do nothing. Kick back and relax and let the process play out.

I mean it, don't get your hands dirty. Your guy's going to win, just let him. Don't get in the way, interfere with potential voters and bother them with reminders to vote, final pleas, detailed explanations about the stakes in this election, etc. Seriously, now is the time to sit back and watch the democracy run wild. Do you hate democracy? Of course you don't. And what is more America than staying home and doing nothing and assuming someone else will do the heavy lifting for you?

Listen, the Red Sox had a big lead against the Yankees in 8th inning of the 2004 ALCS, and what happened? They went on to win! Well, Barack Obama is the Red Sox against the Yankees in the eighth inning of a Game 7. He has a lead in the eighth inning. What could possibly go wrong?

It's going to be such a rout, frankly, that I think it would be insulting to keep working. Don't give money, don't make phone calls, don't knock on doors, don't tell your friends to vote. In fact, you don't even need to vote. When has a single voter ever mattered? I'll sure tell you when it won't: Tuesday.

So I'm begging you, I'm pleading with you: SIT ON YOUR LEAD. DON'T DO ANYTHING. I MEAN IT.

Please?

- W

(Cross-posted at Surgical Strikes.)

Cheney endorses McCain

By Michael J.W. Stickings

As Steve Benen reports.

It's hardly a shock that Cheney prefers McCain to Obama, but one wonders if McCain, who has been trying to distance himself from Bush despite his strongly pro-Bush record, really wants a Cheney endorsement with just a few days to go before the election.

"Maybe," Steve offers, "the McCain campaign would consider a few more public events where Cheney can tout how much he and McCain are on the same page and share a common worldview? Maybe in states like Ohio and Florida?"

Sounds like a great idea to me -- a high-profile reminder from the Dick himself that McCain-Palin would be four more years of Bush-Cheney, or worse.

**********

UPDATE: From CNN: "I'd like to congratulate Sen. McCain on this endorsement, because he really earned it. That endorsement didn't come easy," Obama said today in Colorado.

For its part, the McCain campaign is responding that McCain has fought against Obama and Cheney on "out-of-control" spending and Bush's energy policy -- in other words, that Obama is like Bush-Cheney, not McCain.

It doesn't get much stupider than that.

Palin First

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Speaking of Palin rallies in Florida -- which I did earlier -- it seems that, like Palin rallies elsewhere, they're all about... Sarah Palin:

At a boisterous Sarah Palin rally in Polk City, Florida on Saturday afternoon, one name was surprisingly absent from the campaign décor — John McCain's.

*****

[T]he GOP nominee's name was literally nowhere to be found on any of the official campaign signage distributed to supporters at the event.

I suspect this reflects a number of things:

1) Palin is far more popular with the base than McCain is, and it's the base, the GOP mob, that's showing up for these rallies.

2) Palin may be an ignorant twit, but she's also a hyper-ambitious one -- it's always been about her (including for her various right-wing admirers.

3) The Republican blame game is already underway, with fingers pointing in all directions, and there have been signs of tension between McCain and Palin (and between their respective people) -- Palin may be playing right along.

4) With the election all but lost, Palin is already looking ahead to 2012 -- in fact, she's already running.

Whatever the case, it's all quite amusing. Even McCain's own running mate has pretty much abandoned him.

The new ugly: More ignorance and bigotry in the McCain-Palin mob

By Michael J.W. Stickings

The latest chant at Palin rallies is this: "Vote McCain, not Hussein!" or "John McCain! Not Hussein!" As NYT's The Caucus is reporting, the former made an appearance at a rally earlier this week in Pennsylvania, the latter at one this morning in Florida:

After the rally in Florida ended, two of the people leading the chant explained why they did so.

"Because it rhymes," said Shirley Mitten, 64, a volunteer at a pregnancy center and a resident of Brooksville, Fla. She said she does not know if Mr. Obama is a Muslim. "He says he's not, but we have no way of knowing," Ms. Mitten said.

Her husband, John A. Mitten, 64, took credit for starting the chant. "I was trying to get it going!" he said. "I just do not want Obama to be elected."

Mr. Mitten said he could not trust Mr. Obama because of his past association with William Ayers, the 1960's radical, and because of his relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. He also pointed out that Mr. Obama's father was a Muslim.

The middle name Hussein, he said, added to the suspicion. "I guess Obama was named after Saddam Hussein," he said.

We do know that Obama's not a Muslim, and we do know that the Mittens are a couple of blithering idiots. But they are hardly the only ones in the McCain-Palin mob. And it isn't just ignorance that drives them, it's bigotry.

For so what if Obama were a Muslim? Would that automatically disqualify him from public office? Well, yes, to these people who are so full of hatred and spite.

And yet there they are, cheering on Sarah Palin, herself the cheerleader of the mob, spewing lies and deceptions at rally after rally.

Not all McCain-Palin supporters are like that, to be sure, but many of them are, and the ugliness, vicious attacks on Obama, some of it undeniably racist, has become a defining feature both of the McCain-Palin campaign and of its grassroots support.

John Cleese on Olbermann

By J. Thomas Duffy

If you happened to be watching Countdown last evening, you were rewarded with a little treat:

John Cleese, live, in-studio.

For the final segment, Olbermann had the Monty Python veteran in for a chat, and a new poem (Cleese, last month, wrote a poem slamming Sean Hannity that Olbermann read on the program) bashing Olbermann's obsessive target, Bill O'Reilly.

The best of it was Cleese riffing on "If Karl Rove worked for the Democrats" ... It's hysterical!

Check it out here:

Countdown: John Cleese on Joe the Prop Oct. 31, 2008




Extra Bonus!

It appears, if it survives the writing and run-through process, that there will be a parody of Olbermann on Saturday Night Live this evening.




(Cross-posted at The Garlic.)

Obama draws even, more or less, in Louisiana

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Ahead in the polls, and with the Kerry states pretty much wrapped up, including Pennsylvania, Obama has been setting his sights lately on traditionally red states like Indiana and North Carolina, and even McCain's home state of Arizona.

Obama has substantial leads in key battleground states like Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire, the race is more or less even in others like Missouri and Indiana, and polls show that he is close even in Georgia.

And, now, even in Louisiana, where, according to a new WWL-TV poll, the race is, given the margin of error, "a statistical tie," with McCain up by just three points, 43 to 40.

I don't expect Obama to win Arizona, Georgia, or Louisiana -- just as I don't expect him to win West Virginia or Montana -- but, as I've said before, the very fact that these states are in play suggests that Obama is doing rather well overall.

I'll have my final national vote and electoral college tally predictions on Monday, or perhaps early Tuesday. As I look at it now, though, I have it 375 to 163 for Obama.

But, then, I'm in a fairly optimistic mood at the moment. I'm sure the anxiety -- not to mention the fear and panic -- will set in again over the weekend.

The Reaction in Review (Oct. 31, 2008)

A week's Reactions that deserve a second look:

Friday

By Michael J.W. Stickings: "Taking the fight to Arizona, now a battleground state" -- In this post and a previous "sign of good things to come," Michael celebrates this new campaign opening in McCain's own back yard.

By Michael J.W. Stickings: "Palin and the First Amendment: Give me a friggin' break" -- Michael exposes the silliness of Sarah Palin's plea for extra protection of her right to free speech; C'mon!

By Creature: "McCain's next hit job on Obama" -- This post, and it's interesting comment by Capt. Fogg, reveals McCain's amazing capacity to step to new lows.


Thursday

By Mustang Bobby: "Another country heard from" -- Bobby reveals why an endorsement by highly respected publication, The Economist is very good for Barack Obama's governing gravitas.

By Carl: "McCain wins one constituency" -- Featuring fab fotos, Carl suggests all the good reasons that it won't be enough for a McCain victory.


Wednesday

By Michael J.W. Stickings: "Our better history: Thoughts on Obama's half-hour prime-time TV ad" -- Michael's positively heartfelt wish for us regarding Obama: "Don't let yourselves succumb to numbness, to desensitization, to detachment, to disengagement."

By Carl: "Redistributor cap" -- This excellent post is one of Carl's specialties, making complex economic theory accessible in a clever and entertaining way; it rocks!


Tuesday

By Michael J.W. Stickings: "Joe the Plumber, idiot" -- Michael exposes this Repub phenom for what he really seems to be a shill for their campaign; + several comments.

By Carl: "Friends don't let friends vote third party" -- Carl's well researched and well reasoned argument for a vote for Obama, and none other, is one we can take to heart.

By Dan Tobin: "Letter W more excited than ever for image overhaul" -- Dan's clever and entertaining interview with a member of the alphabet is a great read.


Monday

By Michael J.W. Stickings: "Integrity at an Indiana call center" -- Conclusion: "They didn't have to do it, and it was not without risk, but they took a firm stand for decency and for their own integrity." Commenters gave kudos.

By Michael J.W. Stickings: "BREAKING NEWS: Ted Stevens found guilty" -- Thorough coverage of the guilty verdict story, including Stevens, Palin and newspaper quotes.

By Carol Gee: "Pessimistic, realistic or optimistic about new leadership" -- Quote: "I am optimistic that Barack Obama sees the world relatively realistically, despite his emphasis on hope. After all, his main message is "change," which would not be needed if our leadership had been adequate these past few years."

By Capt. Fogg: "Military intelligence" -- This eye-opening post reacts to an over-the-top story about how military intelligence views activities that seem perfectly normal to the rest of us.

By Michael J.W. Stickings: "Wow: Obama in Denver" -- Michael's post is an inspirational reminder of how important it is to notice why we are FOR Obama, not just against McCain-Palin, paying attention to what moves us about his candidacy, again and again.

Special bonus, features ugly Republican senators --

By Michael J.W. Stickings: Elizabeth Dole, and Kit Bond

Duberstein! Duberstein!

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Add one more prominent Republican to the list of those who support Obama.

Ken Duberstein, chief of staff to McCain's hero, Ronald Reagan, has endorsed Obama, joining, among others, Colin Powell, Ken Adelman, Arne Carlson, William Weld, and Charles Fried.

Duberstein has been an advisor to Powell confidante and former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, and it was Powell's endorsement specifically that pushed him to Obama: "Well let's put it this way, I think Colin Powell's decision is in fact the good housekeeping seal of approval on Barack Obama."

Welcome aboard, Mr. Duberstein.

Taking the fight to Arizona, now a battleground state

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Kos is reporting that Arizona is "neck and neck." McCain is up by just a single point in a new Research 2000 poll, 48 to 47, with Obama leading 54 to 42 among early voters.

(And, in a possible preview of the 2010 Senate race, Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano, who has an extremely high favourability rating in the state, is ahead of McCain 53-45.)

With the Obama campaign recruiting volunteers and campaigning seriously in Arizona, surely a sign that things are going well, McCain will actually be campaigning there on Monday.

That's right, though all the talk has been about Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Colorado, and the other supposedly swing states, McCain is now in the position of having to defend Arizona, his own home state, once thought to be a slam dunk.

(In my best Monty Burns voice: Exxx-cellent.)

Palin and the First Amendment: Give me a friggin' break

By Michael J.W. Stickings

This... is... simply... ridiculous:

In a conservative radio interview that aired in Washington, D.C. Friday morning, Republican vice presidential nominee Gov. Sarah Palin said she fears her First Amendment rights may be threatened by "attacks" from reporters who suggest she is engaging in a negative campaign against Barack Obama.

Right, so she's allowed to say whatever she wants, but the media aren't allowed to criticize her. Got it?

She's not attacking Obama with her smears, just asking questions, but the media are attacking her and seeking to shut her up. Got it?

Bull... fucking... shit.

This isn't about free speech -- no one is talking about taking her rights away from her, and there's no threat to the future of the country in this regard -- it's about running a vicious and dirty campaign, about lying, about seeking to deceive the American people.

If Palin is so worried about the First Amendment -- and you know she isn't; this is just more of the usual media-bashing and scapegoating, a common right-wing tactic -- maybe she should take a look at her own party and its record on civil liberties.

**********

UPDATE: Read Greenwald:

If anything, Palin has this exactly backwards, since one thing that the First Amendment does actually guarantee is a free press. Thus, when the press criticizes a political candidate and a Governor such as Palin, that is a classic example of First Amendment rights being exercised, not abridged.

This isn't only about profound ignorance regarding our basic liberties, though it is obviously that. Palin here is also giving voice to the standard right-wing grievance instinct: that it's inherently unfair when they're criticized. And now, apparently, it's even unconstitutional.

Well argued, as always.

McCain's next hit job on Obama

By Creature

Today, from the NYT, we learned this about Senator Obama's upcoming schedule:

Mr. Obama also wanted a site near Chicago, where he is planning to take a three-hour respite from politics to celebrate Halloween with his two daughters.

John McCain's response: Barack Obama has a Muslim name. Barack Obama says he's a Christian. Now Barack Obama's taking time off the campaign trail to celebrate a Pagan holiday. Who is Barack Obama and why won't he come clean about his religious beliefs? Barack Obama, wrong for America and a threat to God.

*OK, I'm getting grief about this post, so let me be clear. This is a joke. I guess the sad part is that McCain has gone so low that it's hard to tell the difference.

(Cross-posted at State of the Day.)

Ugliest Republican of the Day II: Elizabeth Dole

By Michael J.W. Stickings

I don't follow North Carolinian politics all that closely, so I'll let The Charlotte Observer explain:

In a new TV ad that must have the late Sen. Helms smiling and cheering from the great beyond, the Dole campaign has attacked her opponent, Democratic state Sen. Kay Hagan of Greensboro, as "godless." Hagan attended a September fundraiser in Boston sponsored by dozens of people and co-hosted by two persons associated with a group called Godless Americans PAC. Dole's ad says Hagan took "godless" money. Hagan's campaign says she did not receive money from the PAC, though she did get money from one of the co-hosts. She has demanded Dole halt the ad.

Hagan's attendance at any fundraiser and acceptance of a contribution is a fair topic for comment. Yet Dole has resorted to the Big Lie technique, morphing a kernel of truth into a monumental fiction.

How so? The Dole campaign stepped across a broad line, portraying Hagan as not Christian and suggesting she does not believe in God. The Dole ad shows a picture of Hagan while a woman's voice, not Hagan's, intones, "There is no God."

This is indecent. It is the modern-day version of [Helms's notorious] "white hands" ad, a lie born of Dole's desperation in a race in which she has trailed for weeks. It is also a deliberate attempt by Dole's campaign not just to distort the truth, but to shatter Hagan's admirable record as an elder for more than a decade in Greensboro's First Presbyterian Church, as a Sunday School teacher and a volunteer in her church's fundraising campaigns, worship services and community service programs.

*****

This ad is something else, an attack on a Christian woman's faith against all evidence to the contrary. It is wrong. It may well backfire on Dole.

It has no place in N.C. politics. Unless she admits this egregious, shameful mistake and acts appropriately, Elizabeth Dole has no place in N.C. politics, either

Very well editorialized. But I'd say she has no place in the Senate regardless. All this ad does is confirm what a desperate and vicious woman she has become. Let's hope the voters of North Carolina have finally moved past the divisive politics of Jesse Helms and reject Dole decisively on Tuesday.

(From AMERICAblog: "Hagan hits back on Dole." Effectively, I might add.)

**********

UPDATE: For more on the Dole-Hagan race, see CNN, out with a new poll that has Hagan up by 9 points, 53 to 44.

At WaPo, Cillizza has the two ads.

Joe the Maoist

By Capt. Fogg

I picked up the clip below at A Silent Cacophony, one of my regular reads. Looking for Joe the Plumber in the crowd, John the Candidate tells the audience to stand up because they're all Joe the Plumber. I'm sure the man with umpteen houses and cars and a private jet wishes it were so. I'm sure the Man who has never had a private sector job, much less a blue collar trade, would like us to think of him as a man of the people, a Maoist hero.

The idea of the wise peasant, the log cabin born leader is nothing new and it's typically American, but it's also a central mythology of Marxism. We remember Mao Zedong's cultural revolution during which the professional, academic and educated classes were all but exterminated in favor of leadership by peasant farmers, coal miners and yes, plumbers. That one learns to swim by swimming was a Maoist cliche that implied that education was not only not necessary, but not desired. It took China a generation to begin to recover from the destruction.

The idea still lives here in America, despite our continuing obsession with Communism and Socialism. We still believe in the wise fool; in the wisdom of those untainted by information and intelligence and culture and we still believe in superstitious suspicion of all others. We still believe that Joe, whose name is Charles, and isn't a plumber and can't do basic arithmetic much less understand the tax codes, has the answers we need because he's one of us and not one of them. We're still yearning for the Worker's Paradise promised by Communism. We still admire Forrest Gump and marvel at his wisdom, but we still can't seem to differentiate between the people who exploit us by invoking our class identifications and snobberies and class prejudices, and people who actually serve our best interests. All we seem to see is the working class uniform and not the wolf wearing it.

Only in America would the accusation of Marxism arise from a plan to add 4% to the burden of the top 2% elite in the interest of recovering some of the debt we have incurred in making them rich. Only in America would the accusation of Socialism arise from restoring the top tax bracket we had under Reagan, the progressive structure advocated by Adam Smith and Teddy Roosevelt and that we have had during the most prosperous years of our history.

I could go on endlessly about the irony of invoking a worker's paradise and the bogeyman of Communism to sell economic feudalism, but odds are, if you've read this far, you don't need me to do that. It's the dumb people that can be fooled all of the time. It's Joe the Plumber and everyone who stood up when John the Rich Man asked them to who enjoy the flattery and the snobbery and the smug, stupid certainties sold to them by Sarah and the old man.



(Cross-posted from Human Voices.)

Ugliest Republican of the Day: Kit Bond

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Senator Kit Bond of Missouri was our Craziest Republican of the Day back in December 2007 for comparing waterboarding to swimming. (Seriously.)

Today he's our Ugliest Republican of the Day for saying this yesterday at a Palin rally in Rush Limbaugh's home town of Cape Girardeau, Missouri:

Just this past week, we saw what Barack Obama said about judges. He said, "I'm tired of these judges who want to follow what the Founding Fathers said and the Constitution. I want judges who have a heart, have an empathy for the teenage mom, the minority, the gay, the disabled. We want them to show empathy. We want them to show compassion."

That's right, Bond apparently doesn't want judges to have any empathy or compassion at all. Presumably he just wants them to throw the book, as hard as possible, at teenage mothers, minorities, gays, and the disabled. (And note how he refers to them with condescension, derision, and dismissal: "the minority, the gay..."

What is that other than meanness and ugliness and bigotry?

Of course, his attack on Obama is all quite ridiculous. Obama is hardly against the rule of law.

But, as George Constanza once said, "We're living in a society!"

In society, certain social values are important. If people don't have compassion for one another, what sort of a society it is? Similarly, if compassion isn't built into the law, and if judges can't show compassion towards those who need it most, then what sort of rule is there?

Bond implies that he wants society to be what the Founding Fathers wanted it to be. But the Founding Fathers were hardly incapable of showing compassion. And they certainly wanted to live in a compassionate society -- even if there are significant differences between then and now. (Times have changed, as the forward-looking and liberal-thinking Founding Fathers knew they would.) Indeed, I would argue that the Declaration of Independence is a genuinely compassionate document. In attacking Obama, Bond insulted the Founding Fathers and expressed an un-American understanding of the law.

What people like Bond want is not a society, and certainly not a community, but a loose confederation of selfish, atomistic individuals governed by an inhumane legal code, one that targets the disabled and disadvantaged -- one that is so stupid, because so stupidly enacted, because the enactors themselves were so stupid, as to be unable to distinguish case from case and context from context, one that is shallow and unjust.

In a civilized society, the law must be more than this. It must be a reflection of what Matthew Arnold, writing in a different context, called our best self. To those of us who prefer civilization to barbarism, our best self is deeply compassionate.

Take comfort, my friends

By Michael J.W. Stickings

There is a good deal of anxiety out there, I know, what with McCain seemingly closing the gap, at least in the national polls.

I'm full of anxiety myself.

But a new CBS/NYT poll still has Obama with a double-digit lead over McCain, 52 to 41. And it doesn't look like there will be "significant movement in the campaign's final days," given that there are so few undecideds left (just five percent of likely voters).

And consider this: "Seventeen percent of registered voters say they have already voted, either by absentee ballot or at early voting sites, and this group favors Obama by a large margin. The 13 percent of registered voters casting ballots for the first time favor Obama over McCain by two-to-one."

In other words, Obama already has a massive lead.

Take a look at Nate Silver's round-up of the latest national and state polls. What stands out? Obama is still well ahead in the national polls. Even the anxiety-ridden Noam Scheiber now thinks that "the national bleeding looks like it's stopped."

Meanwhile, McCain is barely holding on in red states like Montana, Louisiana, and Arizona.

I'm not saying it's over. It's not. Some of the national polls are, well, worrying, including two that have Obama up by just three. Maybe McCain's internal polls are right and the various public polls are flawed. And maybe there's just something we're missing -- like the prospect of heavy Republican turnout (or efforts to suppress Democratic turnout).

Maybe, maybe, maybe.

But here we are, just four days out, and I'm trying not to let the anxiety get the better of me. Call me delusional, if you want, but we can take comfort, I think, in the numbers.