1st Post-Convention Projection-McCain, Obama make gains
First
Post-Convention electoral vote map, and it still favors Obama...
NOTE- data for Minnesota, New Mexico and Iowa was collected
during/right before/immediately after the Democratic National
Convention- me suspects these states may trend more to the middle
this week. Data recently released reflects gains by McCain in
Colorado,Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and an expansion in Virginia
and Ohio. Curiously, McCains lead in Florida has shrunk a bit...as
has his leads in North Dakota, Nevada, and North Carolina.
Obama has seen a boost in his leads in the Upper Midwest, and as
just mentioned, has eaten away at McCain's leads in NV,NC,ND, and
Florida.
McCain now leads in the popular vote by about 2.5%, but thanks
to Colorado, he still loses the election.
Polling data should be steady now through November 4th.
Rasmussen will be releasing data for Colorado, Virginia, Florida,
Ohio, and Pennsylvania weekly for FoxNews from now on. We should
also see biweekly releases from Public Policy and perhaps daily
releases from SurveyUSA. States ranked weakest to strongest for
both candidates 9/8/08:
MCCAIN: NV +1, MT +1, ND +1.5, VA
+2, FL +2, NC +3, OH +4, IN +4,
SD +6, MO +7, GA +9, TX +10, WV
+10, AZ +10, AR +13, MS +13, SC +13, AL +15, ID +16, KY +18, LA +18, NE +19, KS +20, AK
+22, TN +25, OK +32, WY +37, UT +39 OBAMA: NH+1,
CO +1.5, MI +2, PA +3.5, NM +5,
WI +6, OR +6.5, DE +9, MD+10,
WA +10, NJ +10.5, MN +10.5, IA +12, CA +13, MA +13.5, CT +14, ME
+14, IL +15, NY +16, RI +21, HI
+30, VT +35, DC +60
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