Pennsylvania

This year's Rightblogs' Slate

Posted by: Erick Erickson

Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 12:00PM

5 Comments

In 2006, on behalf of RedState, I joined with other right of center bloggers to choose a slate of candidates worth supporting.

RedState has its own slate of candidates that we have endorsed. This other slate is a larger selection of candidates chosen together by right of center bloggers. We all had the chance to nix a choice until we had a slate of candidates from across the nation worth rallying behind.

Participating in this year's slate were Ace of Spades HQ, Atlas Shrugs, Conservatives With Attitude, Gateway Pundit, Moonbattery, PoliPundit, Power Line, Redstate, Right Wing News, and Wizbang!

Below the fold, is the list and Slate Card. To be clear: these are races where every dollar you contribute will make a significant difference.

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There he goes again!

B. Hussein wants to ban NRA ads

Posted by: acaseofthebenz

Sunday, September 28, 2008 at 07:16PM

3 Comments

Obama Wants NRA Ads Banned Saturday, September 27, 2008 8:10 PM

By: Newsmax staff

The Obama camp has been threatening television and radio stations to keep them from airing anti-Obama ads.

The latest target is the NRA and stations in Pennsylvania.

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Paul Kanjorski (D, PA-11): “I don't know that we included them in enough"

"We" being the Democrats, and "them" being House Republicans.

Posted by: Moe Lane

Friday, September 26, 2008 at 04:17PM

9 Comments

Interesting message difference:

Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-Pa.) on Friday suggested Democratic leaders did not solicit enough input from House Republicans on the financial rescue package.

[snip]

Asked whether House GOP lawmakers are right to believe they were slighted, Kanjorski replied, "I don't know that we included them in enough, and that's always a dangerous thing in politics. Remember, you're dealing with egomaniacs. We're all egomaniacs down here."

[snip]

Kanjorski said, "Now, what we have to do is open that door for the House Republicans, bring them on in and say, 'Guys, you know, we can't cast your idea aside.' Let's listen to it ... I think we have to allow them to talk their idea out. We have to be willing to listen."

(Via Hot Air)

The article notes that Barney Frank doesn't agree with Kanjorski: it also notes that Kanjorski is in the middle of a tough re-election fight (regrettably, Frank is not). That should be kept in mind: if this was a popular measure they'd be climbing all over each other to sign off on it. Also bear in mind that when it does pass it's not just going to be our side that'll be screaming, which is at least something to look forward to.

Pennsylvania

Am I just dreaming?

Posted by: BuckeyesforMcCainPalin

Tuesday, September 23, 2008 at 11:00AM

1 Comment

Four things have me thinking we can win Pennsylvania this election.

First, McCain is performing at least as well as Bush did in both Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Second, the NRA ads are killer, and they're airing in PA starting today.

Third, Joe Biden's gaffe today actually has real meaning, because it could cost him thousands of votes in Western PA: Biden says no to coal

Fourth, and most important, is that Obama was walloped in the primary and it's apparent there are a lot of white Democrats who do not support him.

So am I just kidding myself here, but is PA starting to look more favorable to McCain than ever before?

Pennsylvania

Am I just dreaming?

Posted by: BuckeyesforMcCainPalin

Tuesday, September 23, 2008 at 10:59AM

0 Comments

Four things have me thinking we can win Pennsylvania this election.

First, McCain is performing at least as well as Bush did in both Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Second, the NRA ads are killer, and they're airing in PA starting today.

Third, Joe Biden's gaffe today actually has real meaning, because it could cost him thousands of votes in Western PA: http://hotair.com/archives/2008/09/23/video-on-clean-coal-biden-takes-bold-stand-against-um-obamas-position/

Fourth, and most important, is that Obama was walloped in the primary and it's apparent there are a lot of white Democrats who do not support him.

So am I just kidding myself here, but is PA starting to look more favorable to McCain than ever before?

Biden to Pennsylvania: No Coal for You!

Why aren't you cc'ing him on stuff, Barry? [UPDATED]

Posted by: Moe Lane

Tuesday, September 23, 2008 at 10:55AM

34 Comments

[UPDATE below the fold.] OK, maybe Biden really doesn't keep up with his own campaign's positions, emails, videos, and just about everything else. It sounds insane, but then, so did this:

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The Swing States

A Little Math

Posted by: Dan McLaughlin

Tuesday, September 16, 2008 at 09:07AM

21 Comments

The further we get into the fall, the more meaningful the state-by-state polls become. But it's nonetheless useful to bear in mind the hard numbers from past years to keep a realistic view of what the range of possibilties are in any given state. A few months back, I had gone through the Federal Election Commission website and put together a spreadsheet, which I'm only getting back around to now, tallying up all the votes for federal office (President, Senate, House) in the last four election cycles (2000, 2002, 2004, 2006) comprising two presidential elections, four House elections, and a full cycle and a third of Senate races. The chart below lays out the results.

Now, let's be clear: while the underlying numbers are actual votes cast, basically what I'm doing here is using a metric, not a statistic; I'm combining different types of votes over time in a way that's not scientific, but rather an effort to take disparate pieces of data and make them digestible. Obviously, there are a host of reasons why this isn't science: turnout is much larger in presidential years, some incumbents in the Senate and House run unopposed (although this is itself usually a sign of strength), a third of the Senate seats are counted twice here, gerrymandering affects House races, and of course, there's no fixed way to measure the relative probative value of 2006 results vs. 2000 results in measuring 2008's political terrain. That said, using three levels of balloting over four election cycles does help give us a large enough sample size to get a look at the real, underlying partisan makeup of particular states, and limit the distorting effects of individual personalities.

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Good Batch Of Polls

Mainly Good News

Posted by: R. Mark Johnson

Monday, September 15, 2008 at 08:49PM

5 Comments

RCP has put up five very telling FOX News/Rasmussen polls this evening:

Pennsylvania Obama 47, McCain 47 Tie Ohio McCain 48, Obama 45 McCain +3 Florida McCain 49, Obama 44 McCain +5 Virginia McCain 48, Obama 48 Tie Colorado Obama 46, McCain 48 McCain +2

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The New Okinawa Jack Murtha ad.

"You have sat too long here for any good you have been doing lately… Depart, I say; and let us have done with you. In the name of God,—go!" - attributed to Oliver Cromwell (and yes, I get the irony).

Posted by: Moe Lane

Monday, September 15, 2008 at 10:00AM

5 Comments

To my knowledge, this... man... has never apologized and never retracted for his Haditha comments, so may he be judged by the words that he has said:

(H/T Hot Air)

Are you tired of having this man in Congress? Are you just fundamentally weary of wincing at his words?

Then go here. For that matter, the NRCC could use the help, too.

NJ GOVERNOR CORZINE MISSING IN ACTION

blog.savejersey.com

Posted by: silencedogood

Friday, September 12, 2008 at 01:19PM

1 Comment

By Matt Rooney | September 12, 2008 blog.savejersey.com

It looks like Tom Kean has called Jon Corzine's bluff.

Yesterday, The Gloucester County Times strongly urged Governor Corzine to debate a state Republican leader on the issue of toll hikes at the Governor's upcoming community forums. Corzine's new toll scheme, aiming to triple fares on all three major toll roads, would constitute a severe economic blow for the already over-taxed New Jersey commuter. Gloucester County is a working class commuters area and would therefore be hit particularly hard by the proposed increases. Understandably, Gloucester County's major paper would like some answers from our chief executive.

Today, Tom Kean stepped up and accepted the paper's challenge. Governor Corzine, on the other hand, has yet to respond to either the Times's debate suggestion or the Republican plan to obtain the needed transportation revenue from pre-existing Motor Vehicle Agency fees. So much for the Governor's alleged commitment to his "core principles", promising "substantial, open and public discussion in advance of any transaction."

Heading into 2009, New Jerseyans need to take note of Tom Kean's bold acceptance and Jon Corzine's deafening silence.

ELECTION PROJECTION: Bounce Anyone?

and this is just from 2 days...

Posted by: theoneandonlyfinn

Tuesday, September 9, 2008 at 10:41PM

0 Comments

PreConvention/Post Convention:

PROJECTION UPDATE COMING TOMORROW @ 1100PST

ELECTION PROJECTION 9/8: MCCAIN 265 OBAMA 273

1st Post-Convention Projection-McCain, Obama make gains

Posted by: theoneandonlyfinn

Monday, September 8, 2008 at 09:34PM

5 Comments

First Post-Convention electoral vote map, and it still favors Obama... NOTE- data for Minnesota, New Mexico and Iowa was collected during/right before/immediately after the Democratic National Convention- me suspects these states may trend more to the middle this week. Data recently released reflects gains by McCain in Colorado,Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and an expansion in Virginia and Ohio. Curiously, McCains lead in Florida has shrunk a bit...as has his leads in North Dakota, Nevada, and North Carolina.

Obama has seen a boost in his leads in the Upper Midwest, and as just mentioned, has eaten away at McCain's leads in NV,NC,ND, and Florida.

McCain now leads in the popular vote by about 2.5%, but thanks to Colorado, he still loses the election.

Polling data should be steady now through November 4th. Rasmussen will be releasing data for Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania weekly for FoxNews from now on. We should also see biweekly releases from Public Policy and perhaps daily releases from SurveyUSA. States ranked weakest to strongest for both candidates 9/8/08:

MCCAIN: NV +1, MT +1, ND +1.5, VA +2, FL +2, NC +3, OH +4, IN +4, SD +6, MO +7, GA +9, TX +10, WV +10, AZ +10, AR +13, MS +13, SC +13, AL +15, ID +16, KY +18, LA +18, NE +19, KS +20, AK +22, TN +25, OK +32, WY +37, UT +39 OBAMA: NH+1, CO +1.5, MI +2, PA +3.5, NM +5, WI +6, OR +6.5, DE +9, MD+10, WA +10, NJ +10.5, MN +10.5, IA +12, CA +13, MA +13.5, CT +14, ME +14, IL +15, NY +16, RI +21, HI +30, VT +35, DC +60

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Can Sarah Palin rescue congress

She could sure raise a TON of money for candidates

Posted by: Oz

Monday, September 8, 2008 at 10:03AM

2 Comments

We have already annointed her as the saviour of the McCain candidacy and in the long run of the Republican party.

You probably don't want me to unfocus her and use her for something else, but I can't shake the feeling that Sarah Palin could be the answer to Republican congressional woes in 2010 and maybe even a little in 2008.

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Scranton, Delaware?

Is the Obama Campaign Worried about Pennsylvania?

Posted by: Mark Impomeni

Sunday, August 24, 2008 at 08:00AM

50 Comments

Geography enthusiasts who watched the big Obama-Biden rally in Springfield, Illinois, yesterday were probably a bit curious to hear the town of Scranton, Pennsylvania, mentioned so often in relation to a man from Delaware. Together, Sen. Obama and Sen. Biden mentioned the town five times.

Joe Biden has roots in Scranton. He was born there in 1942. But Joe Biden hasn't lived in Scranton since 1953, 55 years ago. Joe Biden lives in Wilmington, Delaware, and has represented his home state in the Senate for 35 years. He grew up there, went to school there, raised his family there, and has become a fixture there in Wilmington-two and a half hours, 142 miles from Scranton.

So why is the Obama campaign trying to pass off a man from Wilmington, Delaware, as a Scrantonian? The answer may be Hillary Clinton.

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ELECTION PROJECTION 8/22-McCain 274 Obama 264

McCain gaining in Northeast, Obama gaining in Upper Midwest

Posted by: theoneandonlyfinn

Friday, August 22, 2008 at 10:51AM

1 Comment

McCain's surge may be subsiding now as we are heading towards the back-to-back conventions... Obama's margins in Minnesota, Michigan, and Iowa are growing slightly, enough to bump Iowa into likely Democratic status. Nevada as well has drifted back towards a tie with Research2000's Nevada poll giving Obama a 1pt advantage there. McCain is still making headway, however, in some key swing states- New Hampshire is on the verge of a virtual tie- Obama now leads with just a 1.2 pt margin- it had been 11pts in late June. Pennsylvania, with Rasmussen's latest polls, has drifted into "weak Democrat". Still enough of a margin for Obama to have a good cushion, but if it falls any more things could get exciting in the Keystone State.

Polling out of New Mexico shrinks Obama's lead there as well.

North Carolina has been an oddball state for much of the year in polling. While it has never given Obama a lead, the state has only given McCain a 2-6pt lead all year. It drifts back to weak McCain thanks to the recent InsiderAdvantage poll.

Next week is the Democratic Convention. Expect to see polling throughout the week in: New Hampshire Ohio Michigan Colorado New Mexico Pennsylvania Florida Nevada Virginia Iowa Wisconsin Oregon and perhaps a few pointless-to-poll states, like Kentucky, Nebraska, or California.

Obama to spread the Philly street money around.

Well, what's one more principle at this point?

Posted by: Moe Lane

Tuesday, August 19, 2008 at 10:29AM

5 Comments

Funny how that works out, though: both Ed Morrissey and I gave the campaign props for refusing to play the money game in Philly.

"We’ve heard directly from the Obama organizer who organizes our ward, and he told us it’s an entirely volunteer organization and that I should not expect to see anything from the Obama campaign other than ads on TV and the support that volunteers are giving us," said Greg Paulmier, a ward leader in the northwest part of the city.

Neither the Clinton nor the Obama campaign would say publicly whether it would comply with Philadelphia’s street money customs. But an Obama aide said Thursday that it had never been the campaign’s practice to make such payments. Rather, the campaign’s focus is to recruit new people drawn to Obama’s message, the aide said.

The field operation "hasn’t been about tapping long-standing political machinery," the aide said.

That was then. Guess what? "Now" is a completely different world.

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RedState Candidates Are Kicking Butt, But They Need Our Help

Never underestimate the power of a determined people

Posted by: Erick Erickson

Thursday, August 14, 2008 at 06:27AM

5 Comments

We can help out Olson, Barlatta, and Parnell. We need to help them out.

The Texas Chamber of Commerce will endorse Pete Olson against Nick Lampson.
Give and we can win.

Barletta is cleaning Paul Kanjorski's clock up in Pennsylvania. He just started put ads up on the air and could use some cash to keep it up. This has become a pick up opportunity for the GOP. Let's keep the ads on the air.

Sean Parnell is tied with Don Young in Alaska. We can pull him ahead, but we've got to pony up.

We've got to give Parnell what we can and crush Don Young in the primary.

See our whole Slatecard here.

Polling Pennsylvania

How Much Has Party ID Changed?

Posted by: Adam C

Wednesday, August 13, 2008 at 07:24PM

23 Comments

So the national polls have settled into a holding pattern of Obama +2 to +6. The tracking polls are in that range as well as most national surveys (with the slight exception of Gallup's recent Obama +7 in a national poll). And most states have not moved much over the last 30 days. FL went from a McCain lead of 2-5 to a toss-up but it is now back to a comfortable McCain lead. MI and CO retain their slight Obama lean and VA continues to be a toss-up.

Let's take a look at PA polling and party ID. Today, Franklin and Marshall released a new poll showing Obama +5. This is in line with other recent polls showing a comfortable Obama cushion (RCP Ave.: Obama +6.8%) that is similar to his national lead. But the F&M poll is a sample of 50D/38R or D+12. I thought that looked a bit more Democratic than I would expect so I looked into.

In 2004, PA exit polls showed the electorate was D+2 (41D/39R). Surely it is more Democratic now for the well-known reasons: R registration drop nationally, D registration increase nationally, close D primary led to more registration/participation, and national party ID numbers have gone from D+4 to D+10 regardless of actual registration. But a shift of 10 points in four years would be quite devastating for the GOP in PA.

The last F&M poll showed a D+14 partisan makeup and showed Obama winning by 6. In both F&M polls Obama only wins 68% of Democrats but he leads the race because the polls show an overwhelming partisan advantage for the Ds.

So do other polls in PA show a similar margin? Well, I cannot find party ID breakdowns for the Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, and Strategic Vision (R) polls. So it's hard to tell. I find it unlikely that Ds have gone from 41% of the electorate to 50%. But if that is true, the GOP is going to face a steep hill in winning back Congressional seats in addition to the Senate and Governor races in coming years. And a 50% Democratic electorate may be insurmountable for the McCain campaign.

Hopefully some other pollsters will give us a party ID breakdown in PA to see if they get something different from F&M.

Everything you ever wanted to know about the GOP Energy Revolt

Posted by: Erick Erickson

Monday, August 11, 2008 at 04:37AM

19 Comments

I put this together based on footage I shot from Congress on Friday.

You can download the mp4 here.

PA-4: Does Dem Rep. Jason Altimire really want to drill?

or is he just taking Nancy's cynical route to snowing his constituents

Posted by: Mark Kilmer

Wednesday, August 6, 2008 at 11:57AM

4 Comments

Democrat Congressman Jason Altmire is a member of the "Class of Rahm," elected in 2006 when former Clinton (Bill) aide Rahm Emanuel ran the DCCC, who knocked of Republican rising star Melissa Hart to take from her the PA-4 (near Pittsburgh) job. Almire has now had almost two years to indistinguish himself by toeing Nancy's line, and former Congresswoman Hart is back. In a press release today, she takes a cue from House Republican Leader John Boehner (R-OH).

'T was just yesterday that Politico.com reported that Nancy had hatched a scheme in which she urged Dems vulnerable to the public will on the issue of drilling to break with her in order to help win reelection, thus ensuring the Dems a more gargantuan majority in the next Congress with which to run roughshod over the public on these matters in order to "save the planet."

Congressman Altmire likes this cynical strategy:

Freshman Democrats like Jason Altmire of Pennsylvania and Don Cazayoux of Louisiana have taken her up on the offer.

Altmire has said a drilling vote “will happen.”

Boehner then issued his response, calling on those thusly freed Dems to walk the walk.

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ELECTION PROJECTION 8/4: McCAIN 265 OBAMA 273

McCain's Purple State Advances

Posted by: theoneandonlyfinn

Monday, August 4, 2008 at 09:48PM

21 Comments

Image and video hosting by TinyPic All one has to do is read the recent releases from Rasmussen, SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac to see that McCain has been gaining considerable ground, even in Democratically "safe" states. Hes now up again in Nevada as the trend average moves back nationally in his favor, he's managed to cut Obamas leads in Colorado, Michigan and New Hampshire, and has strengthened in several key red states.

As the national data shows a tightening race (Rasmussen gives McCain the lead including leaners for the first time in well over a month), state races are tightening as well.

FiveThirtyEight.com had been using what I felt was a bit of a stretch- a trend-adjustment to their polling to reflect the movement in the national polls. But as we've seen in the last two months, when Obama expands nationally, he expands leads/takes over in the swing states; and when Obama's lead contracts, there goes his leads. Its impossible to ignore now.

If McCain continues to do better in the national polling over the next week (as the war continues to improve, gas prices drip down but the demand for drilling increases, etc), I would be shocked to see McCain still stuck @ 265 come Tuesday. McCain is currently 2pts down in the average at FiveThirtyEight.com and 2.5 down @ RCP. I have him clocked @ 2.4. If that gap narrows to within a point, or goes into a lead for McCain, we're looking at an EV of at least 274. Tiny. But enough to win.

Polling data from here through November should come rather regularly now, particularly since we are now within the last 100 days. The Olympics may overtake the election briefly in the news, but come the end of August/beginning of September, the fun really begins.

PA-10: Turning the Lights Back On

Posted by: Chris Hackett

Monday, August 4, 2008 at 08:30PM

1 Comment

Promoted to the top by Erick. Chris Hackett is one of the few GOP challengers to an incumbent Democrat who has a heck of a good shot at picking off the Democrat.
But he needs your help. Please, please, please consider contributing $10.00 or more to Chris's campaign and help us take back PA-10.


With Congressional Democrats going on vacation without passing an energy bill, House Republicans are sending a strong message that we must fight for increased American energy.

Sadly, the liberals in Congress are beholden to special interests that not only will tolerate higher prices at the pump but actually advocate for it. I am running for Congress in Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional district because I know we can do better than that.

The choice is clear. My opponent, liberal incumbent Chris Carney, has voted repeatedly against every effort to drill offshore, be it in Alaska, or anywhere else. We need an American energy policy that embraces "all of the above." That means increased domestic oil production, wind, solar, nuclear, natural gas, clean coal, or for that matter, anything other source that shows an ability to compete in the market.

I remember sitting in line with my dad in the 1970s to get gas and the politicians promised us they would solve this problem. It's been thirty years and they still have no solution.

Democrats didn't want the American people to witness any member of Congress actually standing up for increased energy security, so they shut down the lights, microphones and cameras.

That's stunning hypocrisy from Democrats like Chris Carney and Nancy Pelosi who promised to "clean up Washington." A year and half after they took control, Congress is more out of touch with ordinary Americans than ever before.

We have the chance to turn the lights in Congress back on. That begins in places like Pennsylvania's 10th district, where we can take a stand for real conservative change and long-term energy security. I hope you'll join me in helping defeat one of the most endangered liberal incumbents of this failed Congress, so that we can finally deliver the energy solutions the American people deserve.

Why, the Left is STILL Incensed about FISA.

How droll.

Posted by: Moe Lane

Friday, July 25, 2008 at 09:20PM

11 Comments

Although I'd like to note that NPR gets it wrong in the title (H/T: Protein Wisdom):

Angry Bloggers On Left And Right Unite Over FISA by Martin Kaste

Bloggers across the political spectrum have been raising money in recent weeks in an effort to punish certain members of Congress for supporting a government surveillance bill backed by the White House.

Earlier this month, Congress passed a rewrite of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, known as FISA. Opponents say it gives the president too much power to tap private communications without court oversight. That argument was made none too subtly by a TV ad that ran in the home district of Chris Carney, a Pennsylvania Democrat who supported the new FISA law.

It'd be "angry bloggers on the Left, and hard-shell Libertarians, unite over FISA." But that's a nitpick... and one not nearly as exciting as watching them try to do an own-goal on Carney. And before we go any further: Chris Hackett is the GOP nominee for PA-10, and would be happy to help these fine, fine folks get Carney out of office. You can help him by contributing here.

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Ridge for VP?

Bill Kristol and Jeff Birnbaum think so.

Posted by: wlrer

Tuesday, July 22, 2008 at 09:27PM

16 Comments

This afternoon on Special Report with Brit Hume, the panel, consisting of Bill Kristol, Jeff Birnbaum, and Charles Krauthammer discussed the rumors swirling around that Senator McCain will announce his vice-presidential pick this week. None believed that the announcement would come this week. Conventional wisdom lately is that Mitt Romney is the most likely pick when the decision is made. Krauthammer reiterated this belief, but Birnbaum and Kristol had interesting takes. Kristol outright predicted that former Pennsylvania governor and first Secretary of Homeland Security Tom Ridge would be the pick, while Birnbaum said he definetly was near the top of the list. I have heard this speculation in the past, but all the talk as of late was centered around Romney.

The main attraction with Ridge is the possibility that he helps carry Pennsylvania. A recent article in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that having Ridge on the ticket would be a huge help in winning the Keystone State. For a Republican to win Pennsylvania, they must rack up large majorities in the bitter areas, the rural central and western parts of the state. These are areas that President Bush did exceedingly well in 2004 when he lost the state to John Kerry, 51%-48%. These are also areas where Hillary Clinton embarrassed Barack Obama in the state's April primary. While it is virtually impossible for Senator McCain to do better than President Bush in these places, it does seem likely that he will be able to at least roughly maintain that level of support, especially with Barack Obama as his opponent. To win, McCain needs to improve in the Philadelphia suburbs where President Bush lost 59%-41%. This area is increasingly trending Democratic. McCain's independent streak should allow him to do better in this area than Bush in '04. Having native son and pro-choice Tom Ridge on the ticket should especially help McCain compete in these crucial areas, the thinking goes. Ridge's pro-choice positions should also help reinforce McCain's appeal to independents and moderate Democrats across the nation in other key states.

Ridge's pro-choice stance could be just as much a liability as an asset. Evangelicals, already unenthused with Senator McCain, could choose to just sit out the election. Obviously, this would be devastating to Senator McCain's chances. Their votes are crucial in key states like Ohio, Missouri, Iowa, and Wisconsin. If Barack is actually able to make a serious play for the South like the MSM keeps telling us, then evangelicals would be essential to hold those states as well. Another possible negative aspect of Ridge is his old position in the Bush Administration. Bush is political poison, and having anybody on the ticket connected to the administration may help reinforce the McBush idiocy.

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Bill Russell may be giving Okinawa Jack a *race*, here. [UPDATED]

Parity in cash-on-hand?

Posted by: Moe Lane

Tuesday, July 22, 2008 at 10:39AM

2 Comments

{UPDATE}: Got off the phone with the Russell campaign. They're reporting that they currently have $270K cash-on-hand, with their expenditures being involved with ballot access (the campaign got the nomination via a write-in ballot), advertising, and direct mail. They also estimate to having had collected enough this month so far to raise their totals above 1 million. Promising news, but by all means: donate.


I can't say for certain: Open Secrets won't be releasing Bill Russell's 2Q numbers until next week, apparently. But we do have Murtha's, and he's reported taking in $1.64 million this cycle, spending $1.34 million this cycle, and having .644 million cash on hand. This is important to note, because his write-in challenger Bill Russell (currently on active duty in Iraq) apparently ate Murtha's lunch last quarter:

JOHNSTOWN [07.17.08]: The campaign of Johnstown resident and Republican nominee for Congress Lt. Colonel Bill Russell outpaced incumbent Congressman John Murtha in the second fundraising quarter of 2008. According to campaign manager, Peg Luksik, William Russell for Congress reported raising $637,137 to Murtha’s $113,155 to the Federal Elections Commission (FEC). The combined totals from the first and second quarters of 2008 exceed $900,000.

(Via Instapundit and Let Freedom Ring )

Mind you, Russell's campaign has 100 grand of debt from the first quarter to cover; while they certainly can take care that this quarter, absent cash on hand numbers I can't say that Lt. Col. Russell is at parity with Murtha. But if he isn't, he's probably very close - and another good quarter won't hurt at all, at all. You can donate to the Russell campaign here, by the way. Just in case you were, I don't know, tired of seeing Jack Murtha running away from confrontations over his attack of the Haditha Marines:

Which - vicious amusement aside - is probably something that we all should be tired of. As well as being tired of Okinawa Jack.

Moe Lane

Republican Registration Drops Across Most of Country

Putting some numbers on the size of the hill we must climb

Posted by: Adam C

Friday, July 18, 2008 at 07:32PM

25 Comments

The easiest way to measure the overall partisan makeup of the country is to ask people. Many pollsters do this with regularity. Rasmussen does this on a monthly basis with a massive sample. Here are some of those numbers:

DATE YEAR: R% D% I% Diff%
Nov 2004: 37.1 38.6 24.3 -1.6
Nov 2006: 31.4 37.5 31.2 -6.1
Nov 2007: 32.5 37.4 30.2 -4.9

Jan 2008: 33.1 38.7 28.2 -5.6
Feb 2008: 31.8 41.5 26.7 -9.7
Mar 2008: 32.1 41.1 26.8 -9.1
Apr 2008: 31.4 41.4 27.2 -10.0
May 2008: 31.6 41.7 26.6 -10.1
Jun 2008: 31.5 41.0 27.5 -9.5

From 2004 to 2006, Rs disappeared by Ds stayed about the same. Since 2006, Rs have stayed about the same but Ds have gained. Overall, we have moved from close to parity to a Dem lead of 10 points. But these are national numbers, and we all know that states are what matters.

So I was happy to see someone took the time to find voter registration numbers on a state-by-state basis:

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When Will Joe Sestak (D-PA) Be Thrown Under the Bus?

Posted by: Erick Erickson

Tuesday, July 15, 2008 at 05:09PM

10 Comments

The late nights show are going to have their best ratings ever during this election.

Is Paul Kanjorski (D-PA) a transparent panderer to the ignorant, or completely naive about the most basic economic principles?

Perhaps it is time to embrace the healing power of "and"

Posted by: Jeff Emanuel

Thursday, June 19, 2008 at 08:43AM

1 Comment

If you're like me and are on way too many email lists involving way too many people you don't know, chances are you've gotten a ridiculous forward (or six) like this one, which I received last Spring from some students at the University of Georgia:

NO GAS...On May 15th 2007 Don't pump gas on may 15th In April 1997, there was a "gas out" conducted nationwide in protest of gas prices. Gasoline prices dropped 30 cents a gallon overnight.

On May 15th 2007, all internet users are asked not to purchase gas in protest of the high gas prices. Gas is now over $3.00 a gallon in a lot of places.

There are 73,000,000+ American members currently on the internet network, and the average car takes about 30 to 50 dollars to fill up.

If all users did not go to the pump on the 15th, it would take $2,292,000,000.00 (that's almost 3 BILLION) out of the oil companys[sic] pockets for just one day, so please do not go to the gas station on May 15th and lets try to put a dent in the Middle Eastern oil industry for at least one day.

If you agree (and I cant see why you wouldn't) resend this to all your contact list. With it saying, "Don't pump gas on May 15th"

Remember Friend: Don't Pump Gas on May 15th

Now, as any person with half a brain and a sixth-grade understanding of economics knows, as nice as this might sound, simple economics will tell you that it is an urban legend. Say that everybody doesn't pump gas on one day. If they still drive the same amount as any other day, the same amount of gas is needed; it's a "zero-sum game" - you'll just make up for that gas used by purchasing more on a different day. If you use the same number of gallons to drive, then you'll need to replace the same number of gallons; it doesn't matter one bit if you do it on one day or another - the same amount will be spent on the gas.

In fact, contrary to the nice idea floated in this email, if there was to be a shift in prices as a result of a day-long boycott on gas purchase that wasn't matched by a boycott in gas use, that shift would actually be upward, as there would be a greater need for gas, and therefore a greater willingness (out of necessity, not desire) to spend more on gasoline, rather than less.

Less demand or more supply is the only way to effectively lower prices; simply shifting the demand from one day to another will not accomplish that in the least. Creating more fuel efficiency, or recovering and refining more domestic oil, will increase the supply or decrease the demand and positively affect prices; a one-day boycott, as nice as it may sound, will not accomplish anything at all other than to cause a glut at the pump the next day.

As a result of this fact, the story told in the previous email is, quite simply, false.

Of course, Pennsylvania has a Congressman who either doesn't get that, or is so busy pandering to the ignorant in his district in hopes of saving his suddenly-endangered seat that he doesn't care.

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"I don't apologize to ANYONE!" says Democrat Congressman who admitted lying about Iraq to win 2006 election

Posted by: Jeff Emanuel

Thursday, June 5, 2008 at 02:50PM

1 Comment

Pennsylvania Congressman Paul Kanjorski (D) has made news for both accidental honesty and ill-timed, transparent duplicity in the last couple weeks.

Now, in an attempt to control that damage and prevent further gaffes (which would cause damage to his apparently Keystone State-sized ego), Kanjorski is refusing to answer any questions about the statements that previously got him into trouble with the media, the voters, and his Congressional Democrat masters.

Video below [Note: Watch the female staffer's face when she realizes what "Charlie" is about to ask her boss.]:

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Democrat Congressman: "We've taken public positions which ... forced the president ... into the surge ... which is working"

Posted by: Jeff Emanuel

Monday, June 2, 2008 at 02:28PM

1 Comment

Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-PA), who recently gained media attention for his videotaped admission that, due to "temptation to want to win back the Congress," Democrats "stretched the facts" regarding their ability to actually end the war in Iraq, appears to be back for a video encore. This time, the Democratic Congressman appears in a video making two distinct statements regarding the 'Surge' strategy that has been so effective in Iraq.

The video is below; below that is a transcript.

In February 2007, Kanjorski went to the floor of the House to say:

Ms. Speaker, I rise today to join the overwhelming majority of the American people, the Congress, and many top U.S. military commanders to voice my opposition to President Bush's ill-conceived plan to send more American troops into the middle of an ongoing Civil War in Iraq
Then, in an interview from just days ago, Kanjorski said:
We've taken public positions which have now forced the president to go into the surge mentality, which is somewhat working
Recently, it was his unfortunate honesty that hurt him; this time, it will be that honesty combined with a penchant for duplicitousness that will come back to haunt him.

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Congressman admits Democrats "stretched the facts," misled anti-war supporters about supposed plans for ending War

Posted by: Jeff Emanuel

Thursday, May 22, 2008 at 08:18AM

2 Comments

Congressman Paul Kanjorski (D-PA) has been a fairly undistinguished member of the House of Representatives for nearly a quarter of a century. He is a career member of the Financial Services Committee who has made little or no name for himself since his first electoral victory, and has maintained incumbency through the funneling of pork back to his district. Even his Wikipedia entry says that Kanjorski "usually plays behind-the-scenes roles in the advocacy or defeat of legislation and steers appropriations money toward improving the infrastructure and economic needs of his district."

“But [in] the temptation to want to win back the Congress, we sort of stretched the facts - and people ate it up.”
Never one to stand out in a crowd outside of his own district if he could help it up until now, Rep. Kanjorski's public life may be about to change in a major way very, very quickly, and for a very big reason.

You see, Paul Kanjorski has an honesty problem.

More specifically, Paul Kanjorski's problem is that he was publicly honest about the intentional dishonesty of Congressional Democrats (and Democrat candidates) in the run-up to the 2006 election -- particularly with regard to the War in Iraq.

Watch the video below (a transcript follows):

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