The MSM is claiming that McCain's losing Florida. Fact is, we're winning in Florida and we are going to win Florida on Nov. 4.
And Ohio? Oh, yeah. We just took Joe the Plumber's home state back.
Fear nothing. Fight everywhere. Win it all.
Florida
John McCain is Joe the Plumber
McCain Gets a Joe the Plumber Shirt in Melbourne
http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/Sen-John-McCain/ss/events/pl/082801mccain/im:/081017/480/15f54deeac5443f4924f206c8e253dd3/
McCain holding the now famous shirt. Get one at http://www.MyNameIsJoeShirts.com
The DCCC Still Raising Money for Mahoney
Wow, that's pretty pathetic. Two years ago the DCCC gave the NRCC hell for raising any money for Mark Foley right after the sex(less) scandal broke.
Well, today, the DCC still has Mahoney on its fundraising page.
Surely they aren't trying to minimize the sex scandal.
And aren't they just hurting other candidates?
But, let's be honest, it's on the GOP that isn't allowed to raise money for scandal-ridden candidates. The DCCC can keep on keeping on.
GOOD NEWS IN FLORIDA!!!
Hard evidence McCain is in good shape
200,000 more absentee ballot requests then the Dems!! Not sure where we were at this point in 2004, but I feel pretty good right now. The rest of the article is somewhat negative, but anecdotal at best IMHO.
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/53812.html
THIS RACE IS WINNABLE!!
We only lose if we stay home, hence the slanted polls
Let me be clear, we are without a doubt behind in this race. The odds are definitely against us, but then again with the right/wrong numbers the way they have been and presidential approval numbers very low, we knew this for over a year. I believe the same party has held the white house three elections in a row only twice the last 100 years.
But taking all those things into account, along with the fact
that we have BEEN OUTSPENT 3 TO 1. That is about to change, with
the RNC committing to about 7.5 million a day along with the
527's(Obama has been spending 3 million a day). Obama should be 15
points ahead, and I mean in legitimate polls with properly weighed
samples. He's not because voters have serious doubts about his
character.
The point is, we have taken there best shots and are still
standing. So everybody go rent the move "Miracle" about the US 1980
Olympic Hockey Team, watch my Tampa Bay Rays go to the world series
Thursday(Hopefully!!), and keep the faith. We have approximately
200,000 more absentee ballot requests in Florida than the dems so
far.
NEVER GIVE UP!
New FL-16 Mahoney ad.
Good. For a start.
Jake Tapper calls it "devastating," which it is:
I call it "good work from the Florida GOP, and I expect the RNC to make the necessary national connections." Particularly the ones to Rahm Emanuel and Chris Van Hollen.
Moe Lane
PS: Donate to Tom Rooney here.
Viable Options
Up top one more time. Please note that I've added Saxby Chambliss. -- Erick
With only a few weeks left until election day, let's be blunt: McCain-Palin '08 does not seem to be making headway against the polling. McCain has one more debate in which he could, and we should hope that he does.
At the same time, the Senate and House Republicans are going to
get crushed. They just are. You can say the polls are biased. You
can say the polls are rigged. But do so at your peril. Ignore the
numbers and look at the trends.
The Republican numbers in the House and Senate can be salvaged,
but in the next few weeks there must be a realistic assessment from
the McCain campaign regarding winning his own race versus helping
Congressional Republicans mitigate their losses. In the best case
scenario, he should be able to help himself and the Congressional
GOP. And that is possible in a number of cases.
Right now it is a necessity that we help as best we can.
We must be aggressive and involved. Below are the races where, despite the expected smack down, we have a real possibility of picking up these seats. Note that the Senate side is primarily defending our own.
Give any money you can, then get out there and help.
SENATE
Saxby Chambliss in Georgia.
Norm Coleman in Minnesota.
Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina.
Mitch McConnell in Kentucky.
HOUSE
Lou Barletta in Pennsylvania-11.
Rick Goddard in Georgia-08.
Chris Hackett in Pennsylvania-10.
Pete Olson in Texas-22.
Erik Paulsen in Minnesota-03.
Tom Rooney in Florida-16.
These seats are all winnable. But they need your money. Likewise, if you live in one of these districts, they need your on the ground help.
Now, this note is as much for the contributors as it is for you guys, if you want a diary promoted to the front page between now and election day, it must be about the ground game in a race you care about. Even better, tell us all what you are doing to help a candidate.
It's time to open the wallets one last time then get in the field.
BREAKING: Pelosi calls for investigation into Tim Mahoney
ABC News has
the story.
"I just learned today about the serious allegations concerning Congressman Tim Mahoney," Pelosi said in a statement. "These charges must be immediately and thoroughly investigated by the House Ethics Committee."
The announcement came just as the advertising company used by Mahoney's campaign said that it had "permanently" ended its relationship with the West Palm Beach congressmen based on the report by ABC News that he had promised his former alleged mistress a job at the firm as part of a secret legal deal.
In an even more troubling story, it looks like Rahm Emanuel might be involved in a cover up over the hush money to Mahoney's mistress.
Go give Tom Rooney some cash.
Democrat Tim Mahoney (FL-16) Pays Mistress Hush Money
Speaking of Tom Rooney being viable in FL-16, there is this breaking news out of the district today.
West Palm Beach Congressman Tim Mahoney (D-FL), whose predecessor resigned in the wake of a sex scandal, agreed to a $121,000 payment to a former mistress who worked on his staff and was threatening to sue him, according to current and former members of his staff who have been briefed on the settlement, which involved Mahoney and his campaign committee.
I'm sure there was no pun intended with the "worked on his staff" line.
In any event, Mahoney won the district after Mark Foley resigned for his own sex scandal.
Time to throw a good wad of cash to Tom Rooney.
I just gave $100.00 to Tom Rooney.
*Preliminary* State Poll Party ID Sample Findings
Long way to go, but some interesting details already in FL, OH, NC, and VA
After my last diary about sampling in the national polls with respect to party ID, I decided to look at some state polls for the same effect. Sadly, my pool is very limited in most states with respect to gaining access to internals, and I am forced to rely on either partisan polls, or some that have not had the greatest track record in the past, like SurveyUSA and ARG.
The sidebar on Drudge as of this typing show some tightening in the daily trackers tomorrow, but factoring in today’s numbers from Hotline and Rassmussen, Obama’s national average lead from 10 polls between 9/29 and today from which I gained access to the internals stands at 6%. The Democrats sample advantage in those polls over Republicans is 7.9%. I’m not suggesting they should be even, but closer to past figures of a 3-4% advantage for the Dems would be more representative, I feel, of the populous. Even Gallup put out numbers today which downplay expectations for the young voter and minority turnout for Obama, making it more reflective of past voting populations.
I selected 9/29 as a point because it is in the middle of the bailout mess, which I think changed the whole nature of this race. I hesitate to go too far back in state polls as I’d run into convention bounces and such, which may put more noise into the data. I call this writing ”preliminary” because I want to check out more than the 2000, 2004, and 2006 exit polls, and I fully anticipate to continue to add more polls to these figures as election day approaches. But I did want to pass along some of the anomalies I’m finding already.
In Florida, 4 polls show Obama has an average lead of 2.5%, but the Democrats have a sample representation advantage over the GOP of 3.8%. This is significant because in the 2006 and 2004 elections respectively, exit polls show a 3 and 4 point advantage to the GOP. The 2004 exit poll also showed a 2.7% lead for Kerry in a state he lost by 5 points, despite the 4 point GOP advantage. So we begin to see the noise we know all so well with exit polls reflected in these figures, but the 2008 polls are still reflecting a 7-8 point swing to Democrats in Florida if we are to believe these polls are an accurate reflection of these electorates.
In North Carolina, 4 polls average to a 1.3% lead for Obama, and a 10.8% advantage for the Democrats. In 2004, the GOP had a 1% turnout advantage in the exit polls, which showed a 6% lead for Bush (he won by 12%). In 2000, the exit polls show a 12.6% turnout advantage for the Dems, but also showed Gore with a 3.3% lead, in a state he lost by 13%. Perhaps pollsters are looking to the 2000 election exit polls as a turnout guide for their polls? Either way, the change between 2004 and today represents almost a 12% point shift towards Democrats in a state with a competitive Senate and Governor’s race. While those other races may help pull more Dems to the polls, a shift that large smells fishy to me, as I have great familiarity with NC’s voter population. I will have to look back at past elections to see if the exit polls look more like the 2000 electorate (which was still very flawed) or the 2004 turnout. I expect the Dems to have an advantage, but not in double digits.
Ohio: 5 polls average to a 4% Obama lead, and 5.4% Dem sample advantage. In 2006, the Dems, riding a wave of corruption from state Republicans, did see a turnout advantage of 3% in exit polls. So perhaps that will follow suit this year? In 2004, the GOP had the advantage, however, of 5%. In 2000, the advantage was 4% for the Dems. That exit poll showed Bush ahead by 1% in a state he won by 4%. So I’m not sure what to make of Ohio, particularly with the voter registration scandal that is going on now. I’ll have to punt on it until more polls become available. These ID shifts between elections, however, may suggest that movement of 7-8 points is possible in some states, depending on GOTV efforts (if you believe the exit polls).
Virginia: 4 Polls show an Obama lead, and Democratic advantage at an identical 6.8%. In 2006, the GOP advantage in exit polls was 3%, and in 2004 it was 4%. So again we are seeing approximately a 10% shift in the electorate towards the Democrats if the polls are accurate. The 2000 exit polls again showed a Dem advantage of 4.2%, and Gore ahead by 0.6% over Bush – but the real result was a Bush 7% win, so again there is a noise problem, but they are the only thing I’ve found so far close to the current poll representation. Like in Florida, the 2004 exits showed a 5.9% Kerry lead in a state he lost by 8%, and despite the GOP turnout advantage.
So again, take this with a bit of a grain of salt for now. I have several other battleground states in the chart I’ve created, but they all have 2 or 1 poll with available internals in my 9/29-now time frame. I will update as more polls become available.
Overall, if the numbers hold as they are going forward with the inclusion of more polling data, I have great reservations about the 7-10%+ shifts in the partisan ID of the electorate as illustrated by these polls. Like I said before, I’ll buy some shift towards the Dems, but for the population to shift this much would be a realignment of almost historical proportions, which I am just not seeing in today’s public given that such a change would be an acceptance of Democratic policies which trend towards socialist. Current Congressional approval ratings, and the bailout backlash simply do not suggest acceptance for such a change. I also have a lot of concern about comparing these figures to past exit polls, given their inherent reporting problems, but they are the best thing I can think of to use for past elections.
Also, if any of you have access to premium poll data, or can recommend some sites with state polls, I’d love to know, as this has really caught my attention.
Sources: RCP Battleground Polls CNN 200 Exit Poll Results CNN 2004 Exit Polls CNN 2006 Exit Polls Roper Center Exit Polls
This year's Rightblogs' Slate
In 2006, on behalf of RedState, I joined with other right of center bloggers to choose a slate of candidates worth supporting.
RedState has its own slate of candidates that we have endorsed. This other slate is a larger selection of candidates chosen together by right of center bloggers. We all had the chance to nix a choice until we had a slate of candidates from across the nation worth rallying behind.
Participating in this year's slate were Ace of Spades HQ, Atlas Shrugs, Conservatives With Attitude, Gateway Pundit, Moonbattery, PoliPundit, Power Line, Redstate, Right Wing News, and Wizbang!
Below the fold, is the list and Slate Card. To be clear: these are races where every dollar you contribute will make a significant difference.
Vote Break Down: Florida On HR 3997
How Florida Voted On The Bailout
I will now break down how Florida voted on this bill. Complete
with links, so you can tell those who voted yes
where to go.
The list will be broken into who voted yes or no.
Governor Sarah Palin At The Villages
Sun Burned and Dehydrated, But Well Worth It
We all have talked about how much we love Governor Sarah Palin,
but how many of us really saw her in person?
To all Florida Republicans
“United on the Path to Victory Rally"
To all Florida Republicans:
On Saturday, October 18th, from 12:30 PM to 2:00 PM
(immediately following the adjournment of the RPOF Quarterly Executive Board Meeting) The Republican Party of Florida will hold a “United on the Path to Victory” Rally celebrating the nomination of Senator John McCain and Governor Sarah Palin as the next President and Vice President of the United States and all Republican candidates.
In addition, Governor Charlie Crist will headline
the rally as our keynote speaker.
Please encourage participation and extend an
invitation to anyone supporting our Party's nominee and the great Republican candidates we have throughout the state of Florida.
The Rally will be held at the Rosen Shingle Creek,
9939 Universal Blvd., Orlando, FL 32819 in the main ballroom. Supporters are encouraged to bring Republican paraphernalia (hats, horns, etc.). Let's have a BIG turnout!
Floridians Info on Sarah Palin's Victory Rally!
This rally is geared towards Republican women but all Republicans are welcome!
Road to Victory Rally
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Join you “Florida Women for McCain Team” by welcoming Governor Sarah Palin as she makes her first appearance in Florida as the Republican Vice Presidential candidate this Sunday, September 21, at The Villages, Florida.
Make a personal sign welcoming her from our Florida Women for McCain Team and maybeeven use your favorite shade of lipstick for you message!
So join the rally at The Villages, bring your girlfriends and let's show Sarah that Florida is McCain/ Palin country. We'll see you there!
The Market Square at The Villages 1020 Lake Sumter Landing The Villages, FL 32162
Doors Open Sunday at 1:30 PM
For more information or event details, please call (850) 391- 4219 or email victoryrally@rpof.org. On Sunday, please allow yourself plenty of time to clear security.
Tickets for Governor Palin's appearance at The Villages may be picked up between the hours of 121:00 AM and 7:00 PM beginning today. Tickets are now available at the following locations. If you are unable to get to one of these locations, please email victoryrally@rpof.org and we will assist you with getting tickets.
Alachua County Victory Office
1210 North Main Street
Gainesville, FL 32601
(352) 373 – 8500
Brevard County Victory Office
2525 Aurora Road
Melbourne, FL 32935
(321) 254 – 0073
Hillsborough County Victory Office
Downtown Tampa
142 W. Platt Street
Tampa, FL 33606
(813) 254 – 8010
Lake County Victory Office
212 W. Main Street
Tarvaras, FL 32778
(352) 742 – 1972
Marion County Victory Office
4000 E. Silver Springs Blvd.
Ocala, FL 34470
(352) 236 – 8808
North Tampa Victory Office
6904 W. Linebaugh Avenue
Tampa, FL 33625
(813) 968 – 3238
Orange County Victory Office
234 S. Semoran Blvd.
Orlando. FL 32807
(407) 277 – 0880
Orange County RPO F Headquarters
315 E. Robinson St., Suite 270
Orlando, FL 32801
(407) 650 – 3717
Osceola County Victory Office
1631 E. Vine Street
Kissimmee, FL 34744
(407) 846 – 8889
Polk County Victory Office
4404 S. Florida Ave. Suite 24
Lakeland, FL 33813
(863) 646 – 4060
Seminole County Victory Office
393 Center Pointe Circle
Altamonte Springs, FL 32701
(407) 261 – 9949
The Villages
1037 Canal Street
Wildwood, FL 32162
(352) 259 – 6484
Volusia County Victory Office
420 S. Nova Road, Suite 2
Ormond Beach, FL 32174
(386) 383 – 9629
Volusia County Victory Office
352 E. New York Avenue
Deland, FL 32724
If you have any questions contact: floridawomenformccain@gmail.com
Sarah's Coming to Florida!
Info on The Victory Rally--when, where and how right here!
Road to Victory Rally
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Join you “Florida Women for McCain Team” by welcoming Governor Sarah
Palin as she makes her first appearance in Florida as the Republican
Vice Presidential candidate this Sunday, September 21, at The Villages,
Florida.
Make a personal sign welcoming her from our Florida Women for McCain
Team and __maybe__even use your favorite shade of lipstick for you
message!
So join the rally at The Villages, bring your girlfriends and let's
show Sarah that Florida is McCain/ Palin country. We'll see you there!
The Market Square at The Villages
1020 Lake Sumter Landing
The Villages, FL 32162
Doors Open Sunday at 1:30 PM
For more information or event details, please call (850) 391- 4219 or
email victoryrally@rpof.org. On Sunday, please allow yourself plenty
of time to clear security.
Tickets for Governor Palin's appearance at The Villages may be picked
up between the hours of 121:00 AM and 7:00 PM beginning today. Tickets
are now available at the following locations. If you are unable to get
to one of these locations, please email victoryrally@rpof.org and we
will assist you with getting tickets.
Alachua County Victory Office
1210 North Main Street
Gainesville, FL 32601
(352) 373 – 8500
Brevard County Victory Office
2525 Aurora Road
Melbourne, FL 32935
(321) 254 – 0073
Hillsborough County Victory Office
Downtown Tampa
142 W. Platt Street
Tampa, FL 33606
(813) 254 – 8010
Lake County Victory Office
212 W. Main Street
Tarvaras, FL 32778
(352) 742 – 1972
Marion County Victory Office
4000 E. Silver Springs Blvd.
Ocala, FL 34470
(352) 236 – 8808
North Tampa Victory Office
6904 W. Linebaugh Avenue
Tampa, FL 33625
(813) 968 – 3238
Orange County Victory Office
234 S. Semoran Blvd.
Orlando. FL 32807
(407) 277 – 0880
Orange County RPO F Headquarters
315 E. Robinson St., Suite 270
Orlando, FL 32801
(407) 650 – 3717
Osceola County Victory Office
1631 E. Vine Street
Kissimmee, FL 34744
(407) 846 – 8889
Polk County Victory Office
4404 S. Florida Ave. Suite 24
Lakeland, FL 33813
(863) 646 – 4060
Seminole County Victory Office
393 Center Pointe Circle
Altamonte Springs, FL 32701
(407) 261 – 9949
The Villages
1037 Canal Street
Wildwood, FL 32162
(352) 259 – 6484
Volusia County Victory Office
420 S. Nova Road, Suite 2
Ormond Beach, FL 32174
(386) 383 – 9629
Volusia County Victory Office
352 E. New York Avenue
Deland, FL 32724
If you have any questions contact: floridawomenformccain@gmail.com
Good Batch Of Polls
Mainly Good News
Karl Rove's Electoral Map (09/14/08): McCain Gets Florida and The Lead. Is New York Next?
Slippage
Rove talked about this chart on Fox News Sunday (transcript at the link) yesterday, but the chart was not put online until today.
John McCain now leads in the Electoral College for the first time since early June, with 227 electoral votes to Barack Obama’s 226 votes and 85 votes as a toss-up. Florida (27 EV) switched from toss-up to McCain to give the Republican his lead. McCain drew closer in both Minnesota (10 EV) and Washington (11 EV), where he now trails by 5 and 4 points respectively, putting both states on the edge of being toss-ups. McCain has also expanded his lead in several red states, such as North Carolina (15 EV), where he went from a 5-point last week to an 11-point lead today. McCain’s lead may be a result of his convention bounce, or it may be a sign of real progress—only time will tell.Click map for larger view.
Washington and Minnesota on the edge of being toss-ups? If they get there, Obama may be tossing up those waffles. Add to that the very ugly specter of New York possibly being in play. From The New York Post.
Boosted by the selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate, Republican John McCain has experienced a surge of support among women in heavily Democratic New York state - where he has closed the gap with Barack Obama, new private polls show.The internal Republican and Democratic polls, details of which were provided to The Post, have stunned members of both parties - and produced deep worries among Democrats.
One great concern for Democrats is that the data show a continuous movement toward the McCain-Palin ticket by women, a majority of whom traditionally favor Democrats.
The movement by women toward McCain is being credited to Democratic attacks on Alaska Gov. Palin, last week's "lipstick on a pig" crack by Obama and to the continuing unhappiness by female Democrats over Obama's failure to pick Hillary Rodham Clinton as his running mate.
Hmmm. I guess pigs can fly, at least when they are Republicans.
The Siena poll of likely voters in New York brings Obama the bad news.
Seven weeks until Election Day, the race for President has tightened in New York, with Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) leading Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) 46-41 percent among likely voters, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll released today. Obama’s five point lead is down from eight points in August, 13 points in July and 18 points in June, when he led 51-33 percent.
Serious question. Is this over? I mean there is no objective reason for a thinking adult to vote for Obama over McCain. Barry has all the earmarks of a flash in the pan, a guy who could be expected to lose in a landslide. Landslides don't just happen on election day, they start with a trend leading to that result. A blind man can see this is a very bad trend for Obama. Soon-to-be landslide victims flail and insist right up until election day that they will win. They are then discarded on the ash heap of history's losers with the historians left to sort out how so many voters in the primaries could have been so stupid to nominate such a colossally bad candidate.
H/T Hot Air
Also find Bill Dupray at The Patriot Room
No more problems
The voting machine in FL
*The new voting system in Florida will allow for a paper trail....but the democrats say that the system is not user friendly.
Wait a minute, this is the same state that couldn't use punchcard ballots right. Now the machine that requires you to fill in a circle next to the candidate or issue with a #2 pencil is not user friendly.
People of this country have been using this system for decades in school testing and yes even used today for votiing. Because of the debacle in FL in 2000 the rest of the country was rushed to find a new system. Well FL spent millions of tax[ayer dollars to buy new machines that weren't proven and couldn't provide a paper trail in case of problems with voting.
Now FL spent millions of taxpayer dollars again on machines that have been used for years here in MI and in other states around the country. The machines are proven and provide a paper trail and the machine even tells the voter if there is a problem with their ballot after it is inserted into the machine. By the way FL is suing the company of the first machines because of the problems, wonder what that cost is to the taxpayers.
*Maybe it was not the machine or mechanism of voting.....maybe just maybe it was the voters.
ELECTION PROJECTION: Bounce Anyone?
and this is just from 2 days...
PreConvention/Post Convention:
PROJECTION UPDATE COMING TOMORROW @ 1100PST
ELECTION PROJECTION 9/8: MCCAIN 265 OBAMA 273
1st Post-Convention Projection-McCain, Obama make gains
First
Post-Convention electoral vote map, and it still favors Obama...
NOTE- data for Minnesota, New Mexico and Iowa was collected
during/right before/immediately after the Democratic National
Convention- me suspects these states may trend more to the middle
this week. Data recently released reflects gains by McCain in
Colorado,Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and an expansion in Virginia
and Ohio. Curiously, McCains lead in Florida has shrunk a bit...as
has his leads in North Dakota, Nevada, and North Carolina.
Obama has seen a boost in his leads in the Upper Midwest, and as just mentioned, has eaten away at McCain's leads in NV,NC,ND, and Florida.
McCain now leads in the popular vote by about 2.5%, but thanks to Colorado, he still loses the election.
Polling data should be steady now through November 4th. Rasmussen will be releasing data for Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania weekly for FoxNews from now on. We should also see biweekly releases from Public Policy and perhaps daily releases from SurveyUSA. States ranked weakest to strongest for both candidates 9/8/08:
MCCAIN: NV +1, MT +1, ND +1.5, VA +2, FL +2, NC +3, OH +4, IN +4, SD +6, MO +7, GA +9, TX +10, WV +10, AZ +10, AR +13, MS +13, SC +13, AL +15, ID +16, KY +18, LA +18, NE +19, KS +20, AK +22, TN +25, OK +32, WY +37, UT +39 OBAMA: NH+1, CO +1.5, MI +2, PA +3.5, NM +5, WI +6, OR +6.5, DE +9, MD+10, WA +10, NJ +10.5, MN +10.5, IA +12, CA +13, MA +13.5, CT +14, ME +14, IL +15, NY +16, RI +21, HI +30, VT +35, DC +60
Citrus County Florida cancels the RINO'S
Primary results
Early results from Citrus County Florida shows the RINO'S have
been sent packing, the anti growth high tax rino County
Commissioners Joyce Valentino and Vicki Phillips were defeated by a
political newcomers Joe Meek and Win Webb who have both stated
themselves to be low tax and pro growth with 100% of the vote total
now in the incumbents lost about 2 to 1, Webb got 68.1% compared to
Valentino's 31.8%, Meek got 67% to 32.1% for Phillips. In a bit of
a surprise long time Property Appraiser Melanie Hensley was
defeated by another newcomer Geoff Greene 53.3% to 46.6%. The only
commissioner to be given another chance was pro growth low tax
advocate Dennis Damato. It seems to show that people are angry with
government just doing as they please and feeling they are
untouchable. Even though we are a Republican dominated County we
stillneed toshed ourselves of these people who think they own it
all.
Redstate's own Haystack arrested Sat. on LSD Charges..Released
No DNA found to link him to pregnancies.
The Broward County man accused of running a huge LSD lab at a
decommissioned nuclear weapons silo in Florida and giving cops
cookies laced with LSD, was released, in one of the Largest gaffes
in Broward Sheriff dept. history, and is a
nonsmoking, marathon-running vegetarian, a Harvard
graduate and deputy director of a University of Florida Boy's Pep
squad.
BREAKNG: FL & MI restored to DNC !Oh please, oh please, oh please....
PUMAs still on the hunt?
Just off the wire at CNN,
Florida and
Michigan have had thier full voting rights restored to the
Denver convention.
It's all up to the Superdelegates sticking to their word now. I'm gonna make another batch of popcorn.
Local Florida! Robert VanVolkenburgh for Brevard Property Appraiser
Ok Erick, you want local? Here you go!
I'm sitting here responding to the latest trolling, when the doorbell rings. I answer the door, and a guy is standing there. It is Robert VanVolkenbrgh, someone I have never heard of before. He is a Republican running for property appraiser, and he is personally going door to door to ask for our support.
I just loved this! I made sure to shake his hand and thank him for coming out personally. As we were talking, the rain started again. He looks at the rain, puts on his hat, and steps out into the rain to go to the next house.
So it is with great pride that I announce my Official Endorsement of Robert VanVolkernburgh, Long on Name. Strong on Integrity
If you are a lurker from Brevard County, remember that early voting begins on Monday, August 11th.
Robert's email is info@robertvanv.com
ELECTION PROJECTION 8/4: McCAIN 265 OBAMA 273
McCain's Purple State Advances
All one has to do is
read the recent releases from Rasmussen, SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac
to see that McCain has been gaining considerable ground, even in
Democratically "safe" states. Hes now up again in Nevada as the
trend average moves back nationally in his favor, he's managed to
cut Obamas leads in Colorado, Michigan and New Hampshire, and has
strengthened in several key red states.
As the national data shows a tightening race (Rasmussen gives McCain the lead including leaners for the first time in well over a month), state races are tightening as well.
FiveThirtyEight.com had been using what I felt was a bit of a stretch- a trend-adjustment to their polling to reflect the movement in the national polls. But as we've seen in the last two months, when Obama expands nationally, he expands leads/takes over in the swing states; and when Obama's lead contracts, there goes his leads. Its impossible to ignore now.
If McCain continues to do better in the national polling over the next week (as the war continues to improve, gas prices drip down but the demand for drilling increases, etc), I would be shocked to see McCain still stuck @ 265 come Tuesday. McCain is currently 2pts down in the average at FiveThirtyEight.com and 2.5 down @ RCP. I have him clocked @ 2.4. If that gap narrows to within a point, or goes into a lead for McCain, we're looking at an EV of at least 274. Tiny. But enough to win.
Polling data from here through November should come rather regularly now, particularly since we are now within the last 100 days. The Olympics may overtake the election briefly in the news, but come the end of August/beginning of September, the fun really begins.
Daily Polling Shows McCain Gains
FL, MA, AZ and others show national polling caught a McCain bounce
Yesterday, I noted that the two major tracking polls showed a tie in the national race for President. I wanted more recent state polls in order to validate those national result. Today, they started coming in.
First, if you add any pollster site to your blogroll, it should be fivethirtyeight. Yes, he's an Obama supporter but he's better at working with this data and presenting it than anyone else. He's the Michael Barone of political statistics. He, too, sees today's state polls as giving more weight to the national shift over the last two weeks.
Second, we have two national telephone poll giving McCain a lead today: Rasmussen and Zogby put the race at McCain +1. Zogby's telephone polls went from Obama +10 in early July to McCain +1 this week. Rasmussen's tracker went from a tie to McCain +1. However, Gallup went from Obama +1 to Obama +3 so not every national poll went McCain's way today.
Third, we have the state by state data that confirms a national movement in McCain's direction. See below the fold for data:
A look at Florida and the South Florida Republicans
Obama has pulled even and there are some tough races
Time for an update from Florida. I'm going to give a small discussion on the current presidential race, then talk about the three districts in South Florida held by Republicans.
African American protestors heckle Obama
"What about the black community Obama?"
African American protestors holding a banner reading "What about the black community Obama?" heckled Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama in Florida on Friday.
Three men stood up as Obama was talking about the economy during a townhall meeting in St Petersburg in Florida, a key battleground state in Obama's duel with Republican John McCain in November's election.
"What about the black community?" the protestors chanted.
Article continues at:
Source: http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=080801151102.y2q6k892&show_article=1
Video at:
http://www.breitbart.tv/html/143423.html
O'Reilly puts Rep. Robert Wexler on the hot seat over residency
Rep. Robert Wexler's new book 'Fire Breathing Liberal' sparked a flame he didn't count on.
On the Bill O'Reilly Show tonight, there was a segment on Rep. Robert Wexler (D-[allegedly] 19). Wexler's Republican opponent Edward Lynch did some research and discovered the Democrat is fulfilling his residency requirement by residing at his mother-in-law's home, one in what The Palm Beach Post describes as a "55-and-older-community." His wife and children live in Rockville, MD. where the kids attend a Jewish Day School.
Republican Registration Drops Across Most of Country
Putting some numbers on the size of the hill we must climb
The easiest way to measure the overall partisan makeup of the country is to ask people. Many pollsters do this with regularity. Rasmussen does this on a monthly basis with a massive sample. Here are some of those numbers:
DATE YEAR: R% D% I% Diff%
Nov 2004: 37.1 38.6 24.3 -1.6
Nov 2006: 31.4 37.5 31.2 -6.1
Nov 2007: 32.5 37.4 30.2 -4.9
Jan 2008: 33.1 38.7 28.2 -5.6
Feb 2008: 31.8 41.5 26.7 -9.7
Mar 2008: 32.1 41.1 26.8 -9.1
Apr 2008: 31.4 41.4 27.2 -10.0
May 2008: 31.6 41.7 26.6 -10.1
Jun 2008: 31.5 41.0 27.5 -9.5
From 2004 to 2006, Rs disappeared by Ds stayed about the same. Since 2006, Rs have stayed about the same but Ds have gained. Overall, we have moved from close to parity to a Dem lead of 10 points. But these are national numbers, and we all know that states are what matters.
So I was happy to see someone took the time to find voter registration numbers on a state-by-state basis:
A look at all of Florida's House races
Expect Florida to be a wash
The other day I posted an in depth look at Florida 16. With this diary entry, I’m going to take a broader look at all of Florida’s 25 congressional districts. Some of these will beg for additional analysis like I did for Florida-16, which I will try to do over the next week or so.
Delete
Accidental double post
Updated FL-16 Analysis - Redstate endorsed Rooney is underfunded
I just updated my analysis of FL-16 and found that the Redstate endorsed candidate, Tom Rooney, is significantly behind one of his primary challengers. If you are interested in helping his funding, you can donate on his website here.
Moe - Don't know the protocol for raising a point like this. I updated my diary entry with the information, but that has dropped from the lefthand list. If there is a way you would rather I do it, let me know.
Tim Mahoney will pay *anybody* to tell people to vote for him
A quick flip through the
classified ad section of the Stuart News, one of the
TCPalm family
of newspapers, reveals an interesting job listing (see right; click
for larger image).
That's right -- Congressman Tim Mahoney (D-FL), offering people money to support his candidacy.
If that doesn't send the signal that this one-term incumbent who beat the disgraced Mark Foley's name in 2006 is secure in his support and reelection chances, well, I don't rightly know what does.
Wait -- I just thought of something. Not having to pay people off the street to tell people to vote for you -- that might send a better signal about security of support and reelection chances.
You think?
FL-16 Analysis (Updated 7/17)
Taking back Foley's seat
Since people have begun providing state by state analysis, it seemed appropriate that I start providing some analysis from Florida. Instead of starting with a long list of Florida’s 25 congressional districts, I thought I would dive in with some detailed analysis of the district everyone remembers, Florida-16. Later I will try to give broader coverage of the other 24 districts, and will get into details as I can over time.
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