McCain crashes Obamas New York party, ties in PA, MN.
Its official on the rolling adjusted poll average, McCain has
flipped Colorado in the data and clings to a lead:While
polling from Virginia suggests a slightly more favorable
environment to Obama, that is trumped by McCains INCREDIBLE
advances in the last few days. First, Washington state became a
tossup- a state where Obama had been burying McCain by double digit
leads all year. Then two shock polls from Minnesota- the latest
from the Star Tribune showing the two tied there. Obama's 10.5pt
lead has collapsed there. Now, New York is following a similar
pattern. Sure, its Fool's Gold for Republicans (like neighboring
New Jersey), but Obama's 16pt lead there has also collapsed. If
Blue New York is really within single digits, McCain has made
incredible ground that may not be reflected evenly in all the state
polls (and may have actually already flipped much of the "barely
DEM" states). Lastly, we have one credible pollster showing
Pennsylvania as a total tie- Rasmussen- bringing the number of Blue
states polling tied or advantage McCain to two. As I mentioned in
my previous few entries, I have hesitated to call this election
McCains to win or lose, but the dynamic has shifted to the
Republicans. Once we begin tying states like Minnesota and
Pennsylvania, and eating at Obamas leads in states like Washington
and New York, the ball is now (albeit barely) in our court.
Ohio is increasingly becoming a weak, but safe, red state- SIX
out of SEVEN polls released in the last 7 days give McCain a lead,
with just Quinnipiac showing otherwise.
If this trend continues, which states will McCain flip
next?
In order of likelihood (historical trends, demographics and
polling data):
New Mexico, followed closely by Pennsylvania, Michigan, and
New Hampshire. Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Washington are all a bit
further off, but still possible if McCain surges back a few points
nationally.
McCain/Obama States (weakest margins to strongest
margins):
MCCAIN
CO +0.5, VA +1, NV +2, OH
+3.75, IN +4, MO +5.25, FL +6,
WV +8, TX +10, ND +10, NC +10,
MT +10, AZ +10, SC +13, AR +13, MS +13, GA +15, SD +17, KY +18, LA +18, NE +19, WY +19, KS
+20, AL +20, TN +25, AK +25, OK +32, UT +38, ID +39.
OBAMA
MI +1.5, PA +2, NM +2.25, MN
+2.5, NH +3, WI +3.5, WA +3.75, NJ +6, OR +7, NY +7.5, DE +11.5, IA +13, MD +13, CA +13, MA +13.5, CT
+14, ME +14, IL +15, RI +21, HI
+30, VT +35, DC +60
NEXT UPDATE: SEPTEMBER
17TH