Rich Lowry on the Corner is saying that McCain's giving up on Colorado. I'm in Texas, but I've always viewed Colorado as a leans-right State, and something in me refuses to believe that Colorado is a definite loss at this point.
Anybody have any info?
[Apparently, his opponent is trying everything to defeat him.]
[Including the quite flattering, but also quite rude, tactic of sending people to come onto influential conservative websites and talk up said opponent. - Moe Lane]
[You can donate to Lamborn here.]
GO VOTE EARLY!!
If you know friends and family here, tell them to vote early. I don't know how to post a video here, but there is a report on a Fox station predicting Colorado to be the "Florida" of this election.
Mine and my husband's personal experience this week proves this to be true -- there are problems. When I went to vote they told me my registration was cancelled and said I had moved even though they didn't show the paperwork documenting that and no registration in another county. I was able to fill out paperwork and be reinstated -- thank goodness!! When my husband went yesterday, his name showed up but no valid address (it's the same as mine!) and the computer wouldn't recognize our address, so he was given a mail-in ballot to fill out and bring back because he had to get on to work.
This will be a nightmare on election day with people finding this out and possibly not being able to vote because of lots of others suspiciously showing up with the same problem. I don't have a clue about why there is this problem -- one can only guess!! I see it as the opposite of lots of dead people being able to vote -- those who have been legitmately registered and find out they are no longer, well -- it's election day and were swamped, sorry! And, then way less votes for McCain/Palin. Hmmmmmm, how convenient...
Bronco fans know that phrase well
John Elway was the master of the comeback in his playing days. He had an amazing 47 of them, accounting for about 1/3 of his total wins. The Broncos were never out of a game with #7 at quarterback.
The Broncos are a way of life there, and after back to back Championships, John Elway is the most beloved person in all of Colorado. He contemplated running for office himself, but never did. Today, he's trying to help John McCain come from behind in Colorado.
Republican presidential candidate John McCain kicks off a three-stop barnstorm of Colorado today at a morning rally with legendary Broncos quarterback John Elway at Denver’s National Western Arena.
First, future Hall of Fame and former Broncos safety John Lynch introduced Elway:
"My name is John Lynch and I couldn't be more proud, honored…to be here this morning. It's an honor to be on the stage with a true American hero, John McCain."He thanks McCain for his years of public service. "And thank you for the next four you're about to embark on as the president of the United States of America. And we’ve got to make sure that happens, right?"
"It's the fourth quarter and it's crunch time and we've got to get this thing right," Lynch says.
"I'm proud to look John McCain in the eye and let him know that he and Sarah Palin have earned my trust," Lynch said.
"I know that on Nov. 4 he’s going to deliver victory."
When Sarah Palin spoke in Grand Junction, Colorado the other day, a group of protesters tried to block her motorcade. Here's a pretty pathetic video they put up, hoping to catch an example of the police abusing them. That effort is utterly wasted, as the police handle themselves appropriately and with class throughout -- including at the end, when the nearest police officer says 'thank you' as he walks away from the frustrated cameraman (language warning):
Zogby Has This a 10 Point Race -- In a Word: Hogwash.
John Zogby this morning has issued his daily tracking poll and it shows a 10 point Obama advantage nationwide. No way!
If anyone had any doubt about the accuracy of the polls -- the more I hear about a 10 or 11 or 12 point lead nationwide for The One, the more I discount all polls. (I am reminded that CBS News in the days leading up to Clinton's beating Dole had Clinton at points with a 22 point advantage, approximately 12 or 13 days out -- Clinton won by 8 and there was no great surge causing a tightening of that race. Trust me, I was at events with Dole as an elected official -- great man, terrible campaign. Even then, however, the polls were out of whack.)
At this point, there are really no more than eight states that are going to matter, based on their battleground status and their electoral votes. These are the states we should be primarily focused on, over the next few weeks, and these are the states that McCain should be focused on, to varying degrees. The states are in three categories: Must Have, Nice to Have, and Needs to Have.
The first group, the Must Haves, are the Big Red 3 battleground states: Ohio (where I live), Florida, and Virginia. There is no realistic path to victory without all three of these states. This is nothing new, and we had hoped McCain would be up more (or at all) in each of these by now. It appears that Ohio and Florida are trending Red in the last 5 days. Virginia, however, has been between Obama +6 and Obama +10 over the last 10 days (although the only poll in the last 5 days shows a trend to McCain, that trend only gets to Obama +6). Virginia must go Red to win.
The Nice to Have is Pennsylvania. Assuming that the Big Red 3 all go to McCain, McCain remains 21 EV’s short of 270. PA provides that all by itself. Recent polls are about Obama +10, so that’s tough to overcome (though Kerry only beat Bush by 2 points). In some bizarro electoral world, I suppose it’s possible to lose Virginia and replace it with Pennsylvania, but I don’t see how that happens realistically. We really need someone to follow Murtha around with a microphone, to help with the “rednecks” in Western PA.
The Needs to Have group includes Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. Assuming that Virginia goes Red and PA stays Blue, McCain needs Missouri + 2 of the other 3 to get to 270. MO has a Suffolk poll on 10/17 – 10/19 with McCain +1 and a Fox/Rasmussen poll from 10/19 with Obama +5. This could be a nailbiter, but I look to anyone from Missouri to provide more information. Colorado has been pretty stable at Obama +5 over the last two weeks. Nevada has had Obama up between 2 and 5 points over the couple of weeks, though no poll in the last 5 days when McCain has started to make some inroads nationally. New Mexico hasn’t had a poll in over a week, but has Obama up between 5 – 13 points in the last few weeks (13 in the latest poll). New Hampshire could possibly replace NV or NM, as it went Bush in 2000 and Kerry in 2004.
If anyone has their pulse on Virginia, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico or Nevada, I would appreciate diaries or comments.
If so, that explains why I haven't heard much of James Dobson this election
I have to conclude that the social conservatives have quit. Politically, that is, for the 2008 election.
Is that right? Am I missing something?
Here's why I say that.
1) Colorado---home of Focus on the Family---appears to be heading Democrat this year. That leads me to presume one of two things:
a) The social conservatives in Colorado lack the strength to swing the state to McCain, or: b) They don't care to.
2) Again in Colorado, the R Senate candidate appears headed to defeat. (I hope I'm wrong here, but I fear that I'm not).
Now, in our current form of governing, the Senate must approve federal judges. It seems to me that, if you want to challenge Roe V Wade, you need enough Senators on your side so that you can win the fight.
So, I was baffled when I didn't see a full-court press
from social conservatives in 2006 to save George Allen, Conrad
Burns or both.
In 2006, you had a GOP President who'd learned his lesson with Harriet Miers, and had twice demonstrated a willingness to nominate the kinds of strict-constructionist judges that the pro-life movement needs on the bench. Plus, the two oldest and most infirm SCOTUS Justices are its most liberal ones (Stevens and Ginzburg).
So, during the last two years of Dubya's term, wouldn't you want to do everything you could to help ensure a GOP Senate, and hence a GOP Senate Judiciary Committee?
Apparently not. While TomlinsonDouthat and others argued that social conservatives did turn out in healthy numbers (for Allen especially)---I still don't recall James Dobson or Tony Perkins or other evangelical leaders loudly sounding the alarm and rallying the troops to keep the Senate in GOP hands.
Well...OK...how did the social conservatives plan to get the judges they needed? Did they think they could work with, or around, Patrick Leahy?
Fast forward to 2008:
Mark Pryor will win reelection in Arkansas. While he might vote for a pro-life SCOTUS Justice, he'll certainly vote to put Patrick Leahy back in the Senate Judiciary chair. Pryor must know that Leahy will commit seppuku before allowing a SCOTUS nominee who might threaten Roe V Wade to go to the Senate floor for a vote. How much effort was put into unseating Pryor, a Democrat in a conservative state?
Then, there's Colorado. I have to wonder---if Focus on the Family lacks the power to swing enough people to elect GOP Senators or a GOP President in its own home state, then I end up back at my two earlier questions:
1) Have the social conservatives turned their back on competitive politcs? 2) If they haven't, then is this a sign that they lack the political clout necessary to win elections?
I urge us to ask ourselves these questions, as we look to the
future of conservatism in American politics.
Are the social conservatives still willing to fight this fight with us? Also, while no one questions---or should question---the sincerity and goodness in their cause, do they have the ability to win elections?
Frankly, I have to admit---I don't know.
Your thoughts?
The Independence Institute's Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms Party.
This is how conservatives party in Colorado.
In a confidential internal memorandum obtained by Face The State (PDF), the Colorado Democracy Alliance outlines a roster of "operatives" who worked for Democratic victory in the 2006 general election. The document outlines specific tasks for various members of the state's liberal infrastructure, including a campaign to "educate the idiots," assigned to the state's AFL-CIO union. Among the operation's intended targets: "minorities, GED's, drop-outs."
Individuals named in the document, marked "CONFIDENTIAL," "for internal use only," and "DO NOT DISTRIBUTE," are high-level elected Democrats including House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, former Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald, as well as Gov. Bill Ritter's press aide and former campaign chief Evan Dreyer. All are specially marked as "off-the-record or covert."
--Link. Anyone want to guess what the electoral outcome might be in response to a memo that calls a whole bunch of potential voters and GOTV activists "idiots"?
With apologies to Shakespeare
UPDATE: See 29Victor's blog for another take on this important story. His was up early this morning, but I missed it before I posted mine.
How often we are reminded that it is those in the Democrat Party that care about women, minorities, and children, and those of us in the Republican Party are intolerant, bigoted, chauvinistic, child-haters. Those of us that have been around for a few years know that the Democrats have worked hard in concert with the media to paint this picture, and to a large degree have been successful. Fortunately for us, every so often the mask slips and we see what they really think.
The Rocky Mountain Right blog has picked up a story from Face The State about a behind-the-scenes effort to increase liberal influence in the state via an organization known as the Colorado Democracy Alliance (CoDA). A series of memos has been slowly leaked to Face The State (the site is intermittently down due to traffic) showing the involvement of the highest levels of Colorado Government.
It sounds like Colorado Democrats are working to create their own "useful idiots."
Face the State, which refers to itself as "the 'go-to' news resource for Coloradans interested in state and local politics," has obtained a confidential memo from the Colorado Democracy Alliance (a Colorado 527 group) which contains both a list of their operatives and the tasks assigned to them.
The list of operatives includes the Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff and Gov. Bill Ritter's press aide, both of whom are labeled "covert."
That's not the most interesting part though. The most interesting part is some of the tasks assigned to the Democrat operatives...
From the Face the State article:
The document outlines specific tasks for various members of the state's liberal infrastructure, including a campaign to "educate the idiots," assigned to the state's AFL-CIO union. Among the operation's intended targets: "minorities, GED's, drop-outs."
Crossposted at www.opiniontimes.com:
Harry Reid is attempting to sneak in a renewal of the ban on offshore drilling into spending legislation sources tell Opinion Times. Reid is offering an "economic stimulus" amendment to the Homeland Security section of the bill which would extend the decades old offshore drilling ban.
The continuing resolution which came to the Senate from the House yesterday had all oil exploration provisions removed by a vote of 370-58. It was a major victory for proponents of expanding energy exploration. the nearly 1 trillion barrels of oil available through oil shale reserves in the mountain states of Colorado, Wyoming and Utah was also lifted.
Reid's motivation is unclear, but it brings to mind Mitch McConnell's question put to Colorado Senator Ken Salazar "at what price for gasoline would you open up energy exploration?" See below.
269-269, but Obama regaining control of the map
Obama regains Colorado
oh, and for ITLAP day, whats a Pirate's favorte vacation spot? ARRRRRRRKANSAS...
ARG poll dump, Virginia worrisome, McCain at Peak?
HUGE
polling dump today by ARG...and despite the weird teaser yesterday,
mostly good news for McCain. Still, they are weighed on accuracy,
and ARG barely ranks above ZogbyInteractive. New York has drifted
back to a reasonable margin for Obama,though it remains closer than
it has been polling all year. PPP's poll for Viriginia is
worrisome- Virginia is a lot closer than many of us on the right
would like to think it is, currently just McCAIN+2.5. Some slightly
better news is the results out of Colorado- the state remains weak
Republican, slightly boosted by ARG.
Now some of the bad news, and this is a bit of a personal aside- I think this may be McCain's peak in the state-by-state polls, judging on the massive switch back to Obama thanks to the poor economic news, for perhaps the rest of the election cycle. If McCain can't break ahead in the economic debate, and effectively tie or beat Obama in the debates, its all downhill for JSM.
Over the whole cycle, a whole bunch of states have been categorized as "tossups". Well, its clear now what is really up for grabs- Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania..... and to a lesser extent Ohio, Washington, Florida, New Jersey, and Oregon. These states may flip back and forth in the last 7 weeks- but dont expect any more surprises.
MCCAIN/OBAMA STATES (weakest to strongest) MCCAIN: CO +1, NV +2.3, VA +2.5, OH +3.75, FL +5, MO +5, IN +5.5, WV +7.5, NC +8. MT +10, ND +10, AZ +11, AR +13, SC +13, MS +14, GA +15, LA +15, TX +15, SD +17, KY +18.5, NE +19. AL +20.5, AK +24.5, TN +25, KS +27. WY +30, OK +32, UT +37.5, ID +40 OBAMA: MI +1.5, PA +2, MN +2.5, WI +3, NM +3, NH +3, WA +3.75, NJ +5, OR +5.5, NY +10.5, DE +11.25, IA +13, MD +13, MA +13.5, CT +14, ME +14, CA +15, VT +19, RI +21.5, HI +31, DC+60
NEXT UPDATE- SEPTEMBER 19TH 2008
A Little Math
The further we get into the fall, the more meaningful the state-by-state polls become. But it's nonetheless useful to bear in mind the hard numbers from past years to keep a realistic view of what the range of possibilties are in any given state. A few months back, I had gone through the Federal Election Commission website and put together a spreadsheet, which I'm only getting back around to now, tallying up all the votes for federal office (President, Senate, House) in the last four election cycles (2000, 2002, 2004, 2006) comprising two presidential elections, four House elections, and a full cycle and a third of Senate races. The chart below lays out the results.
Now, let's be clear: while the underlying numbers are actual votes cast, basically what I'm doing here is using a metric, not a statistic; I'm combining different types of votes over time in a way that's not scientific, but rather an effort to take disparate pieces of data and make them digestible. Obviously, there are a host of reasons why this isn't science: turnout is much larger in presidential years, some incumbents in the Senate and House run unopposed (although this is itself usually a sign of strength), a third of the Senate seats are counted twice here, gerrymandering affects House races, and of course, there's no fixed way to measure the relative probative value of 2006 results vs. 2000 results in measuring 2008's political terrain. That said, using three levels of balloting over four election cycles does help give us a large enough sample size to get a look at the real, underlying partisan makeup of particular states, and limit the distorting effects of individual personalities.
McCain crashes Obamas New York party, ties in PA, MN.
Its official on the rolling adjusted poll average, McCain has
flipped Colorado in the data and clings to a lead:
While
polling from Virginia suggests a slightly more favorable
environment to Obama, that is trumped by McCains INCREDIBLE
advances in the last few days. First, Washington state became a
tossup- a state where Obama had been burying McCain by double digit
leads all year. Then two shock polls from Minnesota- the latest
from the Star Tribune showing the two tied there. Obama's 10.5pt
lead has collapsed there. Now, New York is following a similar
pattern. Sure, its Fool's Gold for Republicans (like neighboring
New Jersey), but Obama's 16pt lead there has also collapsed. If
Blue New York is really within single digits, McCain has made
incredible ground that may not be reflected evenly in all the state
polls (and may have actually already flipped much of the "barely
DEM" states). Lastly, we have one credible pollster showing
Pennsylvania as a total tie- Rasmussen- bringing the number of Blue
states polling tied or advantage McCain to two. As I mentioned in
my previous few entries, I have hesitated to call this election
McCains to win or lose, but the dynamic has shifted to the
Republicans. Once we begin tying states like Minnesota and
Pennsylvania, and eating at Obamas leads in states like Washington
and New York, the ball is now (albeit barely) in our court.
Mainly Good News
Cross-posted on Right Michigan at www.RightMichigan.com.
Over the last week, Michigan residents received a crash course in exactly how far Michigan Democrats are willing to go to win an election and exactly how eager the mainstream media is to accommodate them. Character, honesty and integrity weren't just tossed out the window towards a waiting dumpster, they were forcefully thrown through plate-glass, shredding them to ribbons on their way.
In the span of four days we've discovered evidence of significant and coordinated voter fraud by a far-left Democrat front-group (receiving almost zero media attention) and watched Democrat activists fabricate a scandal using, literally, nothing more than a flashy headline, a bald-faced lie and a heck of a lot of paid, staff level coordination. The fair and balanced, non-biased press, by the way, has had a field day with the lie, taking it, running with it and reporting on it ad nauseum.
It all started late last week when the Michigan Messenger posted a story asserting that Republicans were planning on preventing African-Americans in Macomb County from voting by blocking anyone whose home had been foreclosed. Their evidence was... well, they didn't have any evidence. They have a far-left blogger on Jon Stryker's payroll claiming a Republican confided in her and confessed to the nefarious scheme. No word on whether or not he rubbed his hands together rapidly, twisted his handlebar mustache or belted out a throaty cackle.
The Republican, Macomb County GOP Chairman James Carabelli, flatly and forcefully denies ever making the statement.
Read on...
So what if only two people showed up?
The most important question is that, yes, everyone (okay, "both") folks had a ball. Important problems were discussed, we engaged in gossip about the site, and ate/drank as Republicans ought.
McCain leads 321-217 with trend adjustment; Washington up for grabs
The first map shows the current projections with just weighted polls:
McCain
still has trouble sealing the deal in New Mexico/Colorado or
flipping a Kerry state.
Though Washington now goes on the list of states Obama needs to worry about- the last Rasmussen poll there gave Barack a 12-point lead. This one? 2. It now joins the roster of up for grabs states.
When you adjust the current trend to McCain and the popular vote lead hes showing (currently 3.5pts), and you factor that into the remaining undecideds (and his performance amongst the independents which has surged), that "few points" of difference creates a dramatically different map:
With Team
Obamas current campaign schedule, methinks the internal polling
shows something in between these two maps- a prospect that surely
worries the Democrats who are trying to help Barack regain his
footing in the race.
Polling will explode from now through election day- Mason Dixon is expected to release about 6-10 polls Sunday, Rasmussen perhaps another 10-20 next week, and who knows what else from everyone else!
Remember, the second map is pure conjecture based off McCains current national polling momentum and the numbers regarding his performance amongst the independents. Until McCain's polling average puts him ahead in Colorado, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Washington, Obama is still winning this thing.
NEXT PROJECTION- SEPTEMBER 15TH
"So yank that ad of yours out of our gut, Freedom [sic] Watch!"
I will not hide the truth from you: this is a silly ad.
It's from Freedom's Watch, and it's there to support Bob Schaffer, and it's a silly ad. It's a good ad: it aims for funny-obnoxious, and gets there - but it's still silly. It'd not be on my list for Ultimate Awesome...
...until I discovered that the Udall campaign absolutely freaked over it.
and this is just from 2 days...
PreConvention/Post Convention:
PROJECTION UPDATE COMING TOMORROW @ 1100PST
Another example of how democrats refuse to come clean on their refusal to allow us to develop energy independence from foreign oil
Crossposted at OpinionTimes.com
Colorado Senator Ken Salazar spoke to an energy forum of the Independent Petroleum Association of Mountain States. He called for a "balanced national energy policy" and dismissed claims he is against drilling and exploration in the United States. He told his critics to just turn it "down a couple decibels."
He pointed to the fact that when he became Colorado's natural resources director in 1990, there were 11,000 energy jobs in the state. He claims we have been successful in building the energy industry in Colorado because now there are 36,000 such jobs.
The response from oil and gas companies: "I think the industry feels he could be more helpful," said Doug Hock, spokesman for EnCana Oil & Gas (USA).
But here are the facts:
It is disingenuous for Senator Salazar to claim his is for drilling when he is against it. A recent YouTube video makes it very clear that his true agenda is to block all energy development under any circumstances.
1st Post-Convention Projection-McCain, Obama make gains
First
Post-Convention electoral vote map, and it still favors Obama...
NOTE- data for Minnesota, New Mexico and Iowa was collected
during/right before/immediately after the Democratic National
Convention- me suspects these states may trend more to the middle
this week. Data recently released reflects gains by McCain in
Colorado,Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and an expansion in Virginia
and Ohio. Curiously, McCains lead in Florida has shrunk a bit...as
has his leads in North Dakota, Nevada, and North Carolina.
Obama has seen a boost in his leads in the Upper Midwest, and as just mentioned, has eaten away at McCain's leads in NV,NC,ND, and Florida.
McCain now leads in the popular vote by about 2.5%, but thanks to Colorado, he still loses the election.
Polling data should be steady now through November 4th. Rasmussen will be releasing data for Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania weekly for FoxNews from now on. We should also see biweekly releases from Public Policy and perhaps daily releases from SurveyUSA. States ranked weakest to strongest for both candidates 9/8/08:
MCCAIN: NV +1, MT +1, ND +1.5, VA +2, FL +2, NC +3, OH +4, IN +4, SD +6, MO +7, GA +9, TX +10, WV +10, AZ +10, AR +13, MS +13, SC +13, AL +15, ID +16, KY +18, LA +18, NE +19, KS +20, AK +22, TN +25, OK +32, WY +37, UT +39 OBAMA: NH+1, CO +1.5, MI +2, PA +3.5, NM +5, WI +6, OR +6.5, DE +9, MD+10, WA +10, NJ +10.5, MN +10.5, IA +12, CA +13, MA +13.5, CT +14, ME +14, IL +15, NY +16, RI +21, HI +30, VT +35, DC +60
She could sure raise a TON of money for candidates
We have already annointed her as the saviour of the McCain candidacy and in the long run of the Republican party.
You probably don't want me to unfocus her and use her for something else, but I can't shake the feeling that Sarah Palin could be the answer to Republican congressional woes in 2010 and maybe even a little in 2008.
As I feel it is foolish to even update a projection in the middle of two conventions' conflicting bounces, I will, unless otherwise noted, refrain from any updates to my projections until (at the earliest) Tuesday of next week. Polling data from the swing states will only begin to reflect the real winner next week (and methinks thats why PPP, Razzy, Susa, Zomgsby, and the rest have refrained from state by state polling).
That being said, from here on out polling data will be roaring in, just when my day job picks up for the year.Pollster.com has been pretty helpful in collecting data, but polls will be released SO quickly and so frequently I will be missing a few of them here and there. Starting probably September 15th I will attempt to update projections every other day. If you notice a poll that may have slipped under the radar (read- not from Rasmussen, PPP, Mason Dixon, Survey USA, or Quinnipiac), feel free to email it to me, along with the crosstabs, to theoneandonlyfinn@yahoo.com .
States to look for next week- all of the biggies: Ohio (expect every polling firm to release post convention) Virginia Colorado Pennsylvania New Hampshire Alaska Nevada New Mexico Florida Michigan Minnesota Iowa Wisconsin
Looking forward to crunching the numbers again!
Alex Jones of [Anti-Semites, Mass Murderer Symapthizers & Troothers] tries to incite riot.
Update 3: Subtitle corrected.
Breaking story at People's Press Collective
Update: YouTube video available now.
Update 2: Alex Jones lackey yells "Kill Michelle Malkin" until someone gets him to stop.
Gateway Pundit has pictures and video (embeded below).
"Barack Obama is vulnerable on abortion and free trade."
H/T to exvigilare.
The Aspen Times reported last week that a dozen Hispanic leaders, including former Fort Collins Mayor Ray Martinez have endorsed John McCain for President.
Martinez was raised in an orphanage, and had this to say about McCain,
My mother chose to give me life. He'll preserve our heritage.
Martinez goes on to list what's important to the estimated 240,000 Hispanics in Colorado:
Obama wins back Colorado, EV lead; NEW MAP DESIGN
FINAL PROJECTION BEFORE THE CONVENTIONS, GOOD REFERENCE START POINT FOR ANALYZING ANY CONVENTION BOUNCES FOR THE CANDIDATES.
NOTE- NEW MAP DESIGN! Since we are
now within the last 10 weeks of the campaign, states are divided
into four categories for both parties-Barely (0.1-3.9 within
M.O.E.), Likely (4-9.9), Strong (10-14.9), and Solid (15+).
Obama has
regained the lead in the electoral vote with Colorado, now+2 for
the Democrat. This thanks to the Mason-Dixon batch of Western U.S.
polls and the Suffolk U poll. Meanwhile New Mexico, New Hampshire,
and Michigan have polled tighter, cutting Obamas lead to a point a
piece for the first two states and just 4.5 in Michigan. PPP's
recent Virginia poll, matching last months, pushes it back to a
near-tie, McCain is holding on to a fractional lead there.
The Democratic convention starts
today, I expect Obama to receive a 3-6pt bounce through the week,
which may not be reflected until next week's state-by-state
polls.
CURRENT OBAMA/MCCAIN STATES AND MARGINS (weakest to strongest) McCAIN: VA+.02 MT+1 NV+2.5 FL+2.5 OH+2.75 NC+4 AK+5.5 IN+6 ND+6 SD+6 MO+7 GA+9 AZ+10 TX+10 WV+10 AR+13 MS+13 SC+13 AL+15 KY+18 LA+18 NE+19 KS+20 TN+25 OK+32 WY+37 UT+39
OBAMA: NM+1 NH+1 CO+2 MI+4.5 MN+4.75 PA+4.75 WI+6 IA+6.25 OR+6.5 DE+9 MD+10 WA+10 NJ+10.5 CA+13 MA+13.5 ME+14 CT+14 IL+15 NY+16 RI+24 HI+30 VT+35 DC+60
Nice of them to provide times and locations for the riots.
Desperate for something after recent losses, Dems put words in McCain's mouth.
According to an article at the Denver Post, Republican Presidential candidate, Senator John McCain (R-AZ) suggested that the Colorado River Water Compact should be renegotiated. Colorado Democrat Governor Bill Ritter and Senator Ken Salazar (D-CO) seized on this word used by McCain and put their own meaning to it. Salazar claims,
The political disruption that would result from any renegotiation of these allocations would create a water war across the West.
Governer Ritter commented,
[McCain's statements on the water compact] just showed to me either a naivete or even a hostility toward water usage in Colorado.
Even Colorado Senate candidate Bob Schaffer had strong words for McCain,
[McCain] will not have a more fierce fight from a United States senator than he will from me.
Better to hammer it out here.
Okay, are we going to do this or what?
I suggest Jose Muldoon's because everybody knows the location of Acacia Park... but if there are more people who say "no, I live up on Rockrimmon and I want to go to P.F. Chang's and spend lots of money because, hey, I live on Rockrimmon!", that's an option too.
Who's in and under what circumstances? What day should it be on? What time? Should the place serve booze? Let's hammer that stuff out here.
Edit: Seems to be official!
SEPTEMBER THE 13TH!!! SIXISH!!! JOSE' MULDOON'S!!!
McCain wins Colorado, Election.
Had to
adjust several states for the trend, but with a poll out of the
RockyMountainNews, it is enough to change Colorado from tossup to
weak GOP, giving McCain a 274-264 lead in the Electoral Vote and
winning the General Election.
Teachers Union admits assisting campaign but reports $0 to IRS
H/T to Mount Virtus
During the 2004 Colorado Senate (14th District) election campaign, the Colorado Education Association (CEA) and the Poudre, Colorado Education Association (PEA) gave material assistance to the Bob Bacon (D-Fort Collins) campaign. This assistance included using staff for mailings and emails to union members, and recruiting members and non-members for campaign volunteer work.
Colorado law, like that in many other states, prohibits labor unions from making political contributions. Following Bacon’s victory in 2004, Fort Collins residents Wayne Rutt and Paul Marrick filed suit alleging the PEA and its parent organization, the CEA, violated those prohibitions.
McCain still gaining, Colorado now tied (again)
Well back again with another projection update, this one thanks to some new polls from PPP, Rasmussen, SurveyUSA (which hasnt been polling all summer), and Quinnipiac.
Since mid-June, McCain has expanded his support in Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, flipped Ohio and Virginia, forced Colorado to a tie, and has cut Obamas leads in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Hampshire. Obama has managed to solidify his existing leads in the rest of New England, California, New York and New Jersey, but these states have been projected as safe Democrat for months. His only cut into McCains gains have been in Montana, North Dakota, and Alaska- worrisome since these are traditionally very red states, but coming close on these 9 electoral votes pales to the 31 currently trending back towards McCain.
If Colorado holds its current Republican trend (Rasmussen has it +1 McCain, Quinnipiac +2), it can tip the scale over to a 274-264 lead for McCain. Of course, with the Democratic National Convention in Denver, it could swing back to Barack (or backfire and go further into McCains). Have to wait and see.
Public Policy Polling should be releasing a new Ohio poll shortly (probably still showing an Obama lead but probably down from his +8 in July).
The one worrisome area for McCain is the traditionally Red west and Alaska- recent polling out of Alaska, North Dakota and Montana leave all three (doubtful to me, but hey, its what the polls say) within the margin of error for McCain. States that will probably be polled in the coming week: New Mexico (well overdue) North Carolina Virginia Ohio (probably PPP as reported earlier) New Hampshire (perhaps Rasmussen or UNH) Florida Pennsylvania Iowa
Coffman and Lamborn win.
I did my civic duty and went to the polls today to cast my vote in the Primary election for Republicans in my district. In every single race in my district there was only one person running, so the choice was easy. I don't have any heartburn over anyone running, so I avoided the non-vote protest statements.
There are a couple of close races elsewhere in Colorado. Ben at Mount Virtus predicts that Lamborn will win due to Crank & Rayburn splitting the protest vote, and surprisingly predicts that Wil Armstrong, who was endorsed by yours truly, will pull a last minute upset over Colorado Secretary of State Mike Coffman.
What's more important? Keeping a promise, or attending a fundraiser?
H/T to El Presidente at Schaffer v Udall
The National Republican Senatorial Committee has put out a feature length (3:21) commercial regarding Mark Udall's missed vote in the House to keep them in session to address a comprehensive energy bill.
Unions exempt from campaign finance laws in Colorado.
Matt Fries is running as the Republican challenger for the Colorado State Senate seat in District 14 against incumbent Bob Bacon. Fries previously ran for a seat on the Fort Collins City Council where he was narrowly defeated by progressive Lisa Poppaw.
Matt Fries is a grew up in Fort Collins, is a graduate of Fort Collins High School, after which he became the General Manager of the family's printing business. Matt is married to Suzanne, and together they have 3 children: Rachael, 19; Marshall, 18; and Ethan, 8. Fries will have information on his positions on the issues in the near future.
A bit old-fashioned, that accusation - but if you like, I can go with "lying, cowardly suckweasel."
It'd be accurate either way.
I have one difference of opinion with Ed Morrissey about this: the NRSC should get it down to 30 seconds, and set up the full video at its own dedicated website. It's one of the better campaign slams we've seen this cycle, and very good on its own merits - but a couple of minutes of air time is still going to be exorbitant. So, give 'em the teaser and let 'em check out the full thing online.
Moe Lane
PS, OK, folks: you know the drill. This is behavior that you like, right? Well, carrot and stick, folks; carrot and stick. You can donate to Schaffer here, and the NRSC here. Remember, the latter was the one who gave you this ad, and awesome costs money.
McCain's Purple State Advances
All one has to do is
read the recent releases from Rasmussen, SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac
to see that McCain has been gaining considerable ground, even in
Democratically "safe" states. Hes now up again in Nevada as the
trend average moves back nationally in his favor, he's managed to
cut Obamas leads in Colorado, Michigan and New Hampshire, and has
strengthened in several key red states.
As the national data shows a tightening race (Rasmussen gives McCain the lead including leaners for the first time in well over a month), state races are tightening as well.
FiveThirtyEight.com had been using what I felt was a bit of a stretch- a trend-adjustment to their polling to reflect the movement in the national polls. But as we've seen in the last two months, when Obama expands nationally, he expands leads/takes over in the swing states; and when Obama's lead contracts, there goes his leads. Its impossible to ignore now.
If McCain continues to do better in the national polling over the next week (as the war continues to improve, gas prices drip down but the demand for drilling increases, etc), I would be shocked to see McCain still stuck @ 265 come Tuesday. McCain is currently 2pts down in the average at FiveThirtyEight.com and 2.5 down @ RCP. I have him clocked @ 2.4. If that gap narrows to within a point, or goes into a lead for McCain, we're looking at an EV of at least 274. Tiny. But enough to win.
Polling data from here through November should come rather regularly now, particularly since we are now within the last 100 days. The Olympics may overtake the election briefly in the news, but come the end of August/beginning of September, the fun really begins.
You didn't think they'd just sit there and watch, did you?
H/T to Best Destiny
According to the Rocky Mountain News, The Obama campaign is planning to have a massive phone bank during his acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention in Denver, Colorado.
The plan for ticket distribution for Barack Obama's speech at Invesco Field will be announced next week, but those who end up there will be asked to participate in a phone bank for the candidate, officials said today.
Ok, so they blame the oil companies and her vote against CAFE standards.
It looks like the liberal activists are going to try to use $4/gal. gasoline against conservatives. Marilyn Musgrave (U.S. House CO-4) is their current target. This is another vulnerable seat that the Democrats want to pick up. Musgrave has had a tough fight for her seat the last two rounds. According to PolitickerCO.com,
Defenders, which played a key role in ousting former Rep. Richard Pombo (R-Calif.) in 2006, has turned Musgrave into a top target this cycle.
Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund President Rodger Schlickeisen says,
Marilyn Musgrave’s votes on vehicle fuel efficiency standards cost her constituents money. Gas is over $4 a gallon, and yet she also recently voted against measures to prosecute gasoline price gougers.
Here's the advertisement:
He's what the U.S. House needs now.
The Republican primary race for U.S. House, District 6 from Colorado is to replace Tom Tancredo who is not running for re-election. There are four candidates running for this seat, two of which are Mike Coffman and Wil Armstrong. This seat is safely in Republican hands, so whoever wins the Primary will be going to Washington. Both Coffman and Armstrong are solid conservatives, which makes supporting one over the other a difficult task.
An experienced and influential conservative in the U.S. House
Marilyn Musgrave is the incumbent congresswoman in the United States House of Representatives from Colorado's 4th District. She is nearing completion of her third, two-year term in office, and during this time has been a consistent and reliable conservative while faithfully representing the people in Northern and Eastern Colorado. From her re-election web page:
She has been a leader for agriculture, 2nd Amendment rights, lower taxes, limited government, and education. Additionally, Marilyn has fought hard for all the men and women who have served in the United States military and worked to ensure they received the benefits due them for their courageous sacrifice.
This is why they hate Mitch McConnell.
I give up. I figured that six bucks a gallon was a nice, round number with which to beat the Democrats with about the head and shoulders. Which it would be. For rational people.
But freaking ten?
(Via Hot Air)
What are you willing to bet that Senator Salazar hasn't paid for his own gas in years? - because he certainly seems perfectly happy to make you pay more for yours.
Moe Lane
PS: They want Mitch gone, you know. Hint, hint.
PPS: Ken Salazar would purely hate it if, starting in January
his colleague from Colorado was named Bob Schaffer.
Hint,
hint.
The eastern Colorado wind turbine tapped for the Democratic National Convention's carbon-offset program has one problem: It doesn't generate any electricity. Convention organizers are now being questioned for their eagerness to market those credits to delegates.
The DNC has contracted with Vermont-based NativeEnergy to offer delegates "Green challenge" carbon offsets to soften the environmental impact of convention travel. That money is then invested in carbon-free "green" energy sources around the country, including a wind turbine installed this year by the Wray School District RD-2. But a Face The State investigation reveals the district's turbine has never produced marketable energy due to massive equipment malfunctions.
The Democrats encouraged people to participate in carbon
offsets. One of the programs listed was this wind turbine. It does
not work. But, on the bright side, the school system is getting
lots of money even though it cannot deliver its part of the
offset.
Carbon offsets are a scam. They always have been. They always will be. This is just another example. But you know what? Let's not be surprised. The Democratic Party is used to operating like a third world kleptocracy.
Jim DeMint's Senate Conservative Fund is endorsing Bob Schaffer in Colorado. That's great news.
Schaffer is a good conservative.
During his three terms in Congress from 1997-2002, Schaffer earned a 99 percent Lifetime Rating with the American Conservative Union. His average National Taxpayers’ Union ranking was 13th in the entire House, and he received the fourth highest score on two separate occasions.
The Democrats thought they had Colorado in the bag by running a Udall against Schaffer. New polls are suggesting that's not the case.
According to the Washington Post, Schaffer has "pulled into a dead heat" with Udall. We can win this seat.
While Colorado is turning purple, Schaffer's message resonates out there. We need to fight for him.
General Election time boys and girls....thank goodness for 527's
I saw this commercial on MSNBC tonight as I was watching Chris Matthews. Watch then we will discuss further why it is so brilliant and effective.
I have included the text of the commercial below so we can parse it for all it's greatness. I believe that this is such a great add for a few reasons.
Did it make you laugh?
I'm talking about this (via Constant Reader NightTwister and Allahpundit ):
Well, if you did... he wouldn't mind some help. The man has an uphill slog.
Rarely does your opponent give you an opportunity like this.
Former congressman and Colorado Republican Senate candidate Bob Schaffer had a debate with congressman and Democrat Senate candidate Mark Udall this past week. I was unable to attend, but there was quite a lively crowd. Mark Udall was blindsided by Bob Schaffer during the debate with his response to a question from the channel 9 News moderator. This is one that's best seen, rather than read.
We are reminded here on the blog that there is one aspect of the lie that is the Employee Free Choice Act bill that isn't much discussed. That is the binding arbitration feature of this business/economy killing legislation. Besides the card check aspect where a union can dispense with the ages old democratic system of the secret ballot when employees are voting as to whether or not they even want a union in the first place -- leaving employees open to union pressure and thuggery -- there is the binding arbitration aspect of this legislation.
The binding arbitration will force business to decide their contract within 120 days of the card check vote should that vote favor the union. If the contract isn't settled in 120 days, then a federal arbitrator steps in to decide the matter. In other words, it will be taken out of the hands of both union and business owners and will become another illegitimate, nanny state venue of government.
Now, since unionism adds at least 22% to the administrative costs of business that are forced into unionism, this far, far easier path to unionism will surely force many smaller business to fold as well as force thousands of workers into underfunded pension plans all across the state, and later the country if this debacle spreads.
So, there is more in the EFC Act that is detrimental to our economy and way of life than just the anti-democratic idea of card check.
Be sure and Visit my Home blog Publius' Forum. It's what's happening NOW!
Time for Doug Lamborn to be primaried.
In the upcoming congressional primary for CO 5th CD, Rep. Joel Hefley(ret.) has endorsed Jeff Crank over the incumbent Rep. Doug Lamborn. Crank was a former Administrative Director effectively running Rep. Hefley's Washington Office.
Rep. Hefley wrote an opinion piece in the Gazette on Friday detailing his relationship and endorsement of Jeff Crank. Below are some of the highlights:
The eight years he spent in my offce bore out my initial impressions: he was smart, persuasive, bold, principled and energetic. In short, Crank proved to be that rare man capable of changing Washington for the better.
But just as importantly, he possesses the strength of character that will allow him to stand up to party bosses when they're not acting like real conservatives - the strength of character capable of shaking up Washington from the inside.
Crank is the only candidate to sign a pledge placing a self-imposed moratorium on earmarks, and he's also promised never to exploit the congressional franking privilege to send out mass, unsolicited, selfpromoting campaign ads on the taxpayer dime.
Rep. Hefley sums up Jeff Crank in one paragraph:
The 5th Congressional District is one of the most conservative in the country, and its congressman should be one of the country's most notable conservatives. I have known Jeff all his adult life, and in my heart of hearts I know, and have always known, that he will rise to the occasion.
Hopefully the good people of CO 5th CD will make the right choice and add one more TrueConservative™ to the ranks of Congress.
Aaron B. Gardner
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