Andrew Sullivan
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It is for many in the Obama camp an unthinkable thought. But politics is sometimes the art of adjusting today to what seemed inconceivable yesterday. I'm talking about the possibility — and the powerful logic — of a unity Obama-Clinton ticket for the Democrats.
I never thought I'd even consider it; but times change; politics shifts, and in the roiling flux of this American campaign, a bold unifying gesture could make the Democratic ticket — and an Obama presidency — unstoppable almost overnight. It's still highly unlikely, but so was JF Kennedy running with Lyndon Johnson and Ronald Reagan running with the first George Bush.
The rationale for a fusion ticket is the same as for any grand political compromise. Very few people in Washington believe that Barack Obama can now be denied the Democratic nomination. Even after the past month, as Hillary Clinton has hung in there, as the scandal about Jeremiah Wright (Obama's firebrand cleric) scandal has battered the post-racial Obama brand, and as white Reagan Democrats have proven resistant to a new young black freshman senator, Obama has actually increased his number of delegates. Clinton simply cannot overcome the edge he built up in February and March, however cruel his April turned out to be. And the superdelegates — who will ultimately decide -- have also been slowly trending his way.
The decision last week by the former Clintonite Democratic Party chairman, Joe Andrew, to switch from Clinton to Obama confirmed the super-delegate trend.
And the raw truth is: Clinton's victories in Ohio and Pennsylvania and persistence in states such as North Carolina and Indiana, which vote this Tuesday, have kept Obama from closing the deal definitively. Worse: the demographics seem to be hardening into a difficult dynamic for him. White working-class women — crucial to Democratic marginal states — remain resistant to his charms. Hispanics are also iffier than they should be. Somehow, the Clintons' brutal assault on his brand, aided and abetted by conservative media outlets, such as Rush Limbaugh and Bill O'Reilly, have managed to dent this unifier a little.
That, of course, is why so many in the Democratic party are furious at the Clintons. The only way Hillary can now win is by tearing down the Obama candidacy even further — a candidacy that has brought more new voters, more money and more enthusiasm into Democratic ranks than at any time since 1992. If she were somehow to persuade the superdelegates to pick her over the obvious favourite of primary voters, she would provoke an implosion in the party, brutal payback from young, black and independent Obama fans, and a real crisis at the Democratic convention.
So what is she up to and what is Obama to do about it? There are three main theories behind Clinton's refusal to acquiesce to mathematics: she simply cannot tolerate losing a nomination she believes she has a dynastic right to; she is trying to ensure that Obama loses in 2008 in order to run again herself in 2012; or she wants to be offered the vice-presidential spot on an Obama-led ticket. I'm beginning to suspect the last option is the most plausible, and it gives Obama a potential opening: why not give her what she wants? An Obama-Clinton ticket would certainly give the Democrats a massive sigh of relief — and perhaps some euphoria.
The conservative white voters that Clinton has amazingly managed to attract could be combined with the massive infusion of new young votes, internet money, and African-American enthusiasm to create a potential tsunami in the election. Instead of having to pick between the first black president and the first woman president, the Democrats could offer voters both: the first black president and first female vice-president. Worries about Obama's relative youth and lack of Washington experience would be allayed by the presence of the Clintons. The toxicity of the Clinton baggage could be balanced by the hope Obama has inspired.
The Clintons could be deployed to shore up support in some of the Reagan Democrat states, while Obama wins over enough independents to carry the Mountain West and the upper Midwest. California, Ohio, New York, Florida and Pennsylvania could be secured. The downside? They hate each other. Over this campaign, Obama's supporters, along with many others, have been taken aback by the raw, unprincipled bare-knuckle politics that the Clintons have unleashed against the greatest talent to emerge in national politics since Bill Clinton himself. Moreover, the core appeal of Obama has been that he isn't a Clinton; he hasn't capitulated to the zero-sum politics of Karl Rove, George W Bush's mastermind. His outreach to new and young and non-Democratic voters has been premised on an end to the kind of politics the Clintons represent. When I raised the idea of an Obama-Clinton ticket on my blog last week, Obama-supporting readers were outraged and offended. I can see why. I defer to nobody in my contempt and suspicion of the Clintons.
And yet I can also see that the new politics Obama represents has provoked a ferocious backlash from the established political class; and his weakness (as well as his appeal) as a candidate is his reluctance to engage in the kind of street-fighting that politics can sometimes — and must sometimes — become. By picking Clinton as a vice-president, he would be pulling a classic American manoeuvre — getting a surrogate to do the dirty pugilism of the campaign, while using his own extraordinary skills to provide a unifying and uplifting overall theme. Picking Clinton would also defuse genuine concerns among older voters that he is just too green to be entrusted with presidential power just yet.
Remember Kennedy-Johnson? They too loathed each other and cast extremely different shadows in American public life. But Kennedy put Johnson on his ticket in order to achieve exactly what Obama needs to achieve now: bringing more conservative, practically-minded voters into his camp. There are other figures who could do this for Obama — most obviously, the anti-war Reagan Democrat senator Jim Webb from Virginia. Webb also neutralizes McCain's veteran appeal to heartland voters. And Webb has a tough campaigning streak as well.But the hard reality is that the Democratic party is deeply divided and Webb cannot bring the losing faction with him.
The Clinton dynasty has lost to the new pretender, but it hasn't been defeated in one fell swoop. Dynasties rarely are. The old guard also has enough clout and enough support to threaten Obama with considerable collateral damage — if it wants to — and that's the message it is now clearly sending.
The old political adage that you should keep your friends close but your enemies closer therefore seems appropriate. Clinton will not be running for president in 2012 if she is vice-president in 2009. The same could not be said if she were consigned back to the Senate to lick her wounds and plot her future. If Obama wanted to flatter her even more, and keep her occupied, he could offer her the healthcare portfolio — allowing her a second chance to do what she so fatally failed to do 15 years ago. And if she turned him down, he could nonetheless say that at least he tried.
The biggest problem, of course, is Bill. He is an inveterate meddler, and thinks of Obama as his nemesis. Having a former president married to your vice-president could give Obama a huge headache as president. But what we've seen in this campaign is how resilient the Clintons are and how dangerous they will be to any Democratic president who isn't beholden to them. Better, perhaps, to co-opt them and bring them into the tent than to have them as dangerous dynastic rivals outside it.
There's also a way for Obama to explain this choice in a way that does not violate — and in fact strengthens — his core message. His model in this should be Abraham Lincoln. What Lincoln did, as Doris Kearns Goodwin explained in her brilliant book, "Team Of Rivals," was to bring his most bitter opponents into his cabinet in order to maintain national and party unity at a time of crisis. Obama — who is a green legislator from Illinois, just as Lincoln was — could signal to his own supporters in picking Clinton that he isn't capitulating to old politics, he is demonstrating his capacity to reach out and engage and co-opt his rivals and opponents. Done deftly, picking Clinton could even resonate with Obama's supporters as a statesmanlike gesture, a sign of the kind of reconciliation he wants to achieve at home and abroad and energize his own party for the fall. It is consonant with his core message: that he can unify the country in a way few other politicians can. It would even help heal the gulf that has opened up between the Clintons and black voters in this campaign. It's win-win all round.
I hesitate to propose this, but I do think it is now worth actively considering for the first time in this campaign. The test of a president is his ability to recognise his own weaknesses and adjust to them. If he can do that while strengthening his core message, and make his own election close to unstoppable, what would hold him back?
Andrew Sullivan is an author, academic and journalist. He holds a PhD from Harvard in political science, and is a former editor of The New Republic. His 1995 book, Virtually Normal: An Argument About Homosexuality, became one of the best-selling books on gay rights. He has been a regular columnist for The Sunday Times since the 1990s, and also writes for Time and other publications.
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Hillary represents an appreciable amount of voters. If Obama claims to be the candidate of all Americans, he cannot not take Hillary. If she misbehaves as VP ->OUT, if she truly plays her role of VP, she will be useful for her country. That is only what matters. United Democrats don't give up!
Jacques, PARIS , FRANCE
Great article that speaks alot of truth usin examples from history, our greatest teacher. But, also, as a Democrat living in the present, it is obvious to me that an Obama - Clinton ticket IS a dream ticket - One that will assure victory in November, and cultivate a unified, ENERGIZED Party!!
HEATHER, WASHINGTON, USA
Clinton on Obama's ticket what a good idea . Remember the words to bright future.....two is better than one and vice versa. So what if Clinton is in Obama's ticket, I think that'll be a nice and the best decision Obama can ever have.
Apinya "Mey" Harnpoonwittaya, Bangkok, Thailand
No further questions will ask if Obama will place Clinton as his VP. Clinton is by far excellent in her leadership, that's why nearly 18 millions voted her. A woman in man's pants is like a woman full of courage.
Apinya "Mey" Harnpoonwittaya, Bangkok, Thailand
Obama really has no choice if he truly wants to win. If he does not take Clinton as his running mate then Obama should just hand the election over to McCain now. Personally, I am normally a Democratic voter but if Clintons not on the ticket I would be forced to vote Republican.
christina, kokomo, usa
unity, unity, unity
steve, manchester,
No way! Clinton on the ticket would hand the election to McCain. She has way too many negatives.
Jeff, Portland, US
He MUSToffer it, and she MUST accept. For him to pass up the opportunity to look this good, having already established his own historic legacy, would be foolish. For her not to accept would relegate her to the losers heap of women who knowlingly avoided having history lovingly pat them on the back.
Jim P, The Dalles, OR, USA
yes!!!!! HE NEED HER. He would be a fool not too!
Rose, Bloomington, Monroe
If Obama can not see the right on the wall and bring the democratic party together by having Hilliary has his VP...then I truly question his wisdom. One would have to question his decision making as a leader. History will show Hillary, the first woman, to run for president as a true fighter/leader.
Rose, Bloomington, Monroe
You're whistling in the wind, Sullivan. The only way that Obama is electable is if he runs as vice president to Hillary Clinton's president. And he will not do that. So get ready for McCain as the next president of the United States.
Rupert Shaw, London, UK
Mr Sullivan's comments describe the contest concisely from my point of view. Although I would prefer a different vice-presidential candidate from Mrs Clinton, I would gladly vote for Obama Clinton ticket. Mrs Clinton's pandering on the gasoline tax is one of the last straws in my disillusionment.
Calvin C. French, Paso Robles, CA
"Very few people in Washington believe that Barack Obama can now be denied the Democratic nomination. " It's not those in Washington who count - it's those who will be in Denver. The move to Clinton by super-delegates is slowly moving her way and it could be that she will make the offer to Mr Obama.
David Cunard, Los Angeles, United States
There were signs peeping out from under the carpet of Sen. Obama's first speech about Pastor Wright that he may be a closet Socialist and isolationist. Could the USA's ethos survive such a double whammy undamaged?
JVC, Berkhamsted, UK
They say keep your friends close and your enemies closer. That is the only justification I can think of for Hillary being Veep. And I don't think that is justification enough. I want her to try to hold on to her senate seat and I want Bloomberg to do everything in his power to take it from her.
Agatha X, Norfolk,
The problem, Andrew, is that you're thinking of the election and not the governance. A President Obama, with both Clintons constantly hovering, could never be his own man. The press would be drawn to the Clintons like moths to a flame. The drama would never end. It would be a nightmare.
Mark, Tacoma, WA,
"But the hard reality is that the Democratic party is deeply divided and Webb cannot bring the losing faction with him. "
Too soon to tell about Webb. At this point, he's looking like a very good VP choice. His Navy background clinches it. He'd be better than Hillary at balancing the ticket.
s. danori, atlanta, USA
If Clinton stays in the Senate I think she would have less clout in trying to direct any derailment of Obama Initiatives that she did not like. Of course, this is about maintaining the Clinton legacy.
A Hamilton, Los Angeles, US
NO!
Conrad Zutavern, Dunning, Nebraska, USA
Your column gave me the shivers. The presidents you mention, Kennedy and Lincoln, were assassinated; and their successors (both Johnsons) gave us carpet bombing in Vietnam and carpetbagging in the post-Civil War South. Plus, Andrew Johnson was impeached - - like Mrs. Clinton's husband. Nevermore.
Steve Smith, Spring Lake, Michigan, U.S.
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