The CIS and Baltic press on Russia

 

ESTONIA

The press has accused the Estonian parties of politicizing the issue of the North European gas pipeline. Commentators are comparing it with the situation around the Russian-Estonian border treaty, when Estonian foreign policy interests were sacrificed to domestic political struggle.

"The corridors of power... believe that if a negative attitude to the gas pipeline prevails in Estonia, Europe will drastically change its opinion and Germany will see it as a useless project. But Estonia's attitude is not of interest to anyone... The fact that the border treaty [with Russia] has been supplemented with the preamble has become a political victory at home, but what has it given us in foreign policy?" (Eesti Paevaleht, September 19).

"The policymakers responsible for the gas pipeline are aggressively promoting party interests.... But their policy is often stupid and short-sighted in the context of Estonia's long-term interests." (Eesti Paevaleht, September 20).

"The domestic policy is being increasingly determined by traumatized nationalism, Russophobia, populism and the cult of apocalyptic scenarios and threats." (Postimees, September 24).

Experts are critical of the government's decision to deny the Nord Stream company permission to study the seabed in Estonia's territorial waters.

"If the gas pipeline is built in Finnish waters, the damage to the Baltic Sea environment will affect us as well, but we have already lost the right to decide anything." (Postimees, September 21).

"Now this pipe will be laid in Finland... and Estonia will become Europe's blind alley." (Pohjarannik, September 24).

LATVIA

Analysts are ironic about Russian new Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov, who conducted his first session in the authoritarian Soviet style.

"Zubkov was yelling orders to the ministers, addressing some of them as 'comrade' and asking who dared change the president's instructions." (Diena, September 21).

Although Tallinn has denied Nord Stream's request to study the Estonian maritime zone for environmental reasons, observers see political motives in this decision.

"Estonia's position has already been called an attempt to take revenge for the May tensions in relations with Russia over the transfer of the Soldier Liberator in Tallinn." (Telegraf, September 20).

"Some European Union members are not playing their own game when they want to please their overseas Big Uncle, for whom the Russia-EU energy alliance is a stab in the back. But even if it is their own game, they are bound to lose it politically and economically." (Biznes & Baltiya, September 24).

LITHUANIA

Analysts are writing that as a NATO military ally, Vilnius, is obliged to support the U.S. position on ABM deployment in Europe against its own interests.

"If Lithuania were a neutral country, it would be negative about ABM deployment in central Europe, because objectively this American policy in no way promotes European stability. As a U.S. military ally in NATO, Lithuania is becoming hostage to an EU split, which is against its own interests. As Poland's neighbor, Lithuania is coming under real military threat because of the potential stationing of tactical nuclear weapons in the Kaliningrad Region.... However, not being a neutral state, Lithuania cannot afford to criticize the United States and Poland." (Vilnyussky Forum, September 20).

Commentators believe that Moscow will use any decision on Kosovo's status to its advantage.

"It is in Russia's interest to play the Kosovo card regardless of the outcome - if Kosovo remains part of Serbia, Moscow will demand recognition for its aggressive policy in Chechnya, Daghestan and other autonomy-prone regions. If Kosovo's independence is recognized, Russia will be able to manipulate the alleged rights of separatist territories in Moldova and Georgia to form independent states." (Veidas, September 22).

BELARUS

Some analysts are writing about the disintegration of the union state of Russia and Belarus.

"We are witnessing the end of the union with Russia. This is obvious and it seems there is no way back. Belarus is trying to overcome its economic dependence on Russia. Strange as it may seem, national self-identity is dominating post-Soviet affiliation. Belarus is becoming Belarusian, or undergoing a de-Russification. Russian policymakers are also predicting that in 10 years Kazakhstan rather than Belarus will be Russia's last reliable partner in the post-Soviet space because Belarus, Ukraine and other former Soviet republics will have joined the EU and NATO corridors of expansion. Russia is no longer counting on Belarus." (Solidarnost, September 19).

"Does the union state have a future?... It has no quasi-Soviet future here. It is not exciting for our political and economic elite. It is not really interesting because it's like a second marriage to the same homely albeit rich girl." (Nashe Mneniye, September 20).

UKRAINE

Most analysts are convinced that Moscow is not patronizing any political forces in Ukraine. They are emphasizing that this does not mean that the Russian government wants to give up its attempts to influence the future alignment of forces in parliament and the format of Moscow-Kiev dialogue.

"These early elections are a unique exception when Russian influence is practically invisible.... Having disappeared in details, it has remained in global issues - gas prices, investment and economic partnership between the Crimea and the Russian Black Sea Fleet." (Fokus, September 24).

MOLDOVA

The media continue criticizing Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin for his pro-Russian position, which is smearing Moldova's image in Europe. This criticism has been evoked by the EU refusal to ease foreign travel for Moldovan citizens.

"Europe has been treating Moldova as if it does not exist.... Toughening its stand on Russian energy intervention in Europe, Brussels has other reasons for toppling Moscow's puppet at the EU gates.... It may happen that this government will roll on the ground. The only problem is whether the Chisinau democratic opposition will have the political force to pick it up." (Jurnal de Chisinau, September 21).

ARMENIA

The media believe that the reshuffle in the Russian government will affect the political situation in Armenia. The invariably pro-Kremlin Yerevan has become disoriented on the eve of presidential elections.

"Such changes in the Russian government are bound to affect the composition of the new Armenian authorities.... The Armenian government has not selected any candidate yet, either. Removal of [First Deputy Prime Minister] Sergei Ivanov to the background may have serious consequences because he gave political support to [Prime Minister] Serzh Sarkisyan and was his mediator in dealing with Putin, who, according to different sources, did not approve of his nomination as president." (168 Zham, September 19).

Experts believe that Russia is behaving like a typical oligarch in Armenia - buying plants but saving on investment.

"One gets the impression that soon we'll have to sell our houses to some Russian company and then rent them from it. This may seem a fantastic prospect, but the victorious march of Russian companies in Armenia is akin to a raid." (Aikakan Zhamanak, September 19).

"Russian companies own whole infrastructures and enormous enterprises of our economy.... But in Russia's case, these are not 'live' investments but merely real estate acquisition." (Aikakan Zhamanak, September 20).

GEORGIA

The media maintain that the visit of Georgian Interior Minister Vano Merabishvili to "undemocratic" Belarus and his meeting with its President Alexander Lukashenko are part of Georgia's attempt to find an ally in its confrontation with Russia.

"Proceeding from pragmatic considerations, Georgia should be ready to conduct dialogue even with those countries and people whom we do not like.... We are not going to imitate them but will probably win them over to our side." (Rezonansi, September 19).

Experts note that the United States is the only country that can oppose Russia. But tense relations between these two superpowers may have rather unpleasant consequences for Georgia.

"Russia has reconciled itself to the future recognition of Kosovo's independence and is now trying to sell its consent at the highest price.... Preventing Georgia from entering NATO has become an issue of principle for Moscow, and it is trying to use all of its international levers to this end. Success of its new attempt at blackmail will depend on the West, mostly on the consistency of the U.S. position." (24 Saati, September 20).

"The United States, which has come to the Caucasus with Georgia's help, is stubbornly trying to consolidate its positions there. The new Russia, which has been in the Caucasus for centuries, is not likely to give up this region as a noble gesture.... Covert and overt confrontation between the two countries is obvious. The South Caucasian leaders can do much to prevent this confrontation from turning into a military clash." (Sakartvelos Respublika, September 20).

AZERBAIJAN

Analyzing the situation in the South Caucasus, the opposition media have come to the conclusion that Russia continues to have stronger levers of pressure on the region than America.

"The United States is certainly Moscow's most serious rival in the South Caucasus - it has already gained a firm foothold in Georgia and is actively working in Azerbaijan. For the time being, Russia has better chances of influencing the region, including Azerbaijan. As for the latter, Moscow has all the levers of pressure on the Aliyev regime. One of these is the army of Azerbaijani guest workers in Russia. The pro-Moscow views of the majority of high-ranking officials are automatically making this regime dependent on Russia and helping the Kremlin to bargain with Baku to its advantage." (Eni Musavat, September 24).

The press is increasingly accusing the Russian government of supporting an ultra-nationalist and pro-fascist organization.

"At the peak of patriotic fever or simply by contract, Russian skinheads do not make any difference between 'enemy' Azerbaijanis and Georgians, 'friendly' Armenians, Kazakhs and Tajiks, and even their own compatriots - Chechens, Ingushes, Ossetians and Avars.... What is taking place in Russia today is fascism pure and simple. But the Russian courts are displaying a condescending fatherly attitude to domestic fascists." (Zerkalo, September 22).

KAZAKHSTAN

Experts believe that the European Commission's decision to reform the EU energy market is putting to the fore the construction of a gas pipeline from Central Asia to Europe bypassing Russia.

"If both parties to energy cooperation (not to say, conflict) - Russia and the EU - stick to their principles in disputes over European novelties, Central Asian gas suppliers and transit countries, primarily Kazakhstan, should think about building a gas pipeline via the Caspian Sea, that is, bypassing Russia. However, in this case Kazakhstan may also lose because Turkmenistan, the main gas exporter, can lay the pipe on its coast. If this happens, we are out." (Gazeta.kz, September 20).

Analysts believe that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's inflexible position may prompt Russia to use Iran as a bargaining chip in disputes with the United States. Analysts predict that Russia will not yield to Iran's political pressure. Tehran is trying to speed up the commissioning of the Bushehr nuclear power plant as much as possible, and Putin may try to link up this issue to the "fair" partition of the Caspian Sea.

"The Iranians fear that during the remaining months of Putin's rule, Russia will make a whole number of political exchanges with America. Thus, during his recent visit to Australia, Putin signed an agreement on the processing of Australian uranium - largely to please the Americans. In turn, Moscow expects Washington to soften its position on ABM deployment in Europe.... If the Russian president fails to persuade his quite peculiar negotiating partner on Bushehr, the nuclear program and the Caspian Sea status, the United States will receive a carte blanche as regards Iran, and will be in a position to pursue a much tougher policy towards that country." (Delovaya Nedelya, September 21).

UZBEKISTAN

Human rights champions believe that Russia is violating the rights of political refugees from Uzbekistan.

"Serious deterioration in the position of Uzbek refugees in the last few years is a source of major concern. Russian security-related services are actively hunting 'Islamic extremists' from Uzbekistan. Legal norms have often been ignored, and in some cases requests of extradition have been reviewed formally. Illegal extraditions have also taken place, and some people have been abducted and forced to return to Uzbekistan 'of their own free will.' In many cases, only the active position of human rights groups and other international organizations has made it possible to use the legal mechanisms for the defense of refugee rights." (Musulmansky Uzbekistan, September 24).

KYRGYZSTAN

Some experts are skeptical about the continued presence of the Russian air force base Kant in Kyrgyzstan. They argue that Bishkek's stake on Moscow, especially in security questions, is a rash decision of the Kyrgyz authorities, to say the least, which may upset the parity of forces in Central Asia.

"We are using every excuse to demand that the American air force base be withdrawn from Kyrgyzstan.... Why don't we insist that the Russian base is removed as well? Russian aircraft are doing the same damage to the Kyrgyz environment as the American ones." (Agym, September 21).

Some publications are expressing the view that participation of Russian capital in the Kyrgyz economy is protecting the national industry against hostile takeovers.

"Kyrgyzstan should come into closer contact with Russia. It is better than get into the raiders' hands." (24 kg, September 21).

TURKMENISTAN

Analysts are interpreting the loyal-to-the-West statements by Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov as one more attempt to avoid a lop-sided economic orientation towards Russia. The press is discussing the aspects of cooperation with Gazprom, which put Turkmenistan at a disadvantage, and the latter's inability to meet the energy demand of all interested parties.

"Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov seems to have adopted the [Western] rules of the game and started talking about multiple routes of Turkmen gas to the world market. However, trying not to create tensions in relations with Russia, the cautious Turkmen president added that Ashgabat was ready to deliver gas in any direction but only to its own border. The West understands that Turkmenistan will not have enough gas for everyone. In the estimate of Russian and Western experts, the aggregate potential of its deposits does not exceed 15.5 trillion cubic meters of gas." (Turkmenia.info, September 25).

TAJIKISTAN

The press has serious apprehensions over Russia's potential limitations on grain exports.

"Restrictions on grain exports from Russia will seriously prejudice the situation in neighboring countries, first and foremost, in Central Asia. For example, in Tajikistan bread prices went up six times from July to September. Russia and Kazakhstan are supplying the republic with 60% of its grain and flour; and if Russia limits exports, we may be short of grain." (Sobytiya, September 20).

Commentators are accusing the Russian media of calling Tajiks the main drug traffickers.

"Guest workers from Tajikistan are doing the worst jobs for the lowest pay, working 12-15 hours per day. But their hard work often goes unappreciated.... Tajik citizens arriving in Russia to earn money are often ridiculed by comedians on Russian television channels.... Out of the total of drugs brought to Russia, the Tajik portion accounts for only 0.3% to 3%." (Avesta, September 24).

At the same time, the press admits that uncontrollable job migration has adverse consequences for Russia.

"The economic damage done to Russia by illegal migration runs into more than $8 billion a year in tax evasion alone. This is why the Russian migration authorities are primarily trying to take the illegal migrants 'out of the shadow.' The implementation of the new law on labor migration has enabled them to triple the number of legal guest workers as compared with the previous years." (Avesta, September 24).

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