What's Behind Russia's Crime Wave?

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Why is Russia so violent?

Relatively high rates of violent crime are common in mid-income countries such as Russia, Brazil, and Mexico, where rapid economic change coexists with poverty, inequality, and social problems.

It's clear that the major social and economic changes of the last two decades have had a major impact on Russian crime rates, including violent crimes. The crime rate doubled between the mid-1980s and mid-1990s, when Russia was in the throes of its transition from the Soviet system to a market economy. Criminologists believe that the social problems associated with the transition, such as rising alcoholism and drug addiction, and strains on family life caused by economic difficulties, explain the sharp increase in violent crimes.

The 1990s also saw the emergence of business-related violence and organized crime. But these represent a relatively small share of all violence in Russia, which is mainly the result of domestic disputes. In a country long known for its love of hard liquor, alcohol abuse is a major factor, contributing to around two-thirds of all Russia's murders. When former President Gorbachev briefly restricted alcohol sales in the late 1980s, the rate of violent crime fell dramatically.

How safe is Moscow?

With around 15 homicides per 100,000 a year, Moscow is the murder capital of Europe, with more than twice as many murders per capita as New York. But despite the high murder rate, street crime is comparatively rare. And Moscow actually compares favorably with many big American cities: According to the FBI, the murder rate in Washington, D.C., is more than twice as high.

How safe are foreigners?

Racially motivated attacks are a growing problem. The usual targets are citizens from other former Soviet republics, though visitors from Africa and Asia have also been victims. Recent incidents have included the bombing of a market mainly used by Central Asian migrants in Moscow in August, and the shooting of a Senegalese student in St. Petersburg in April. Police statistics confirm that crimes against foreign citizens are rising sharply.

Is overall crime on the increase?

Yes, according to police statistics from the Internal Affairs Ministry. After the twofold increase during the late '80s and early '90s, Russia's crime rate stabilized in the mid-'90s, but over the last three years it has begun to shoot up again. Last year, for example, the number of recorded crimes in Russia rose by 22.8%, and the increase is continuing this year.

A closer look shows that while more crimes are being committed, violent crimes such as murder and assault have stabilized and are now decreasing. The number of murders in Russia has fallen for the last three years, and was down by 10% in the first nine months of this year compared with the same period last year.

Instead, the recent surge in crime is entirely the result of crimes against property such as theft, burglary, and robbery. Last year, the Russian police recorded 1.57 million thefts (a rise of 23%) and 344,440 robberies (a rise of 37%).

Why is crime rising?

If the Russian crime wave of the late '80s and early '90s coincided with economic recession, then the latest rise is taking place against a background of strong economic growth. That may well provide a clue as to why the crime rate is shooting up again. As ever more Russians acquire expensive modern gadgets such as cars, laptops, and mobile phones, there is no doubt a lot more around to steal, and more incentive to report crimes.

Criminologists say that a trend toward less violent crime and more property crime, together with an overall increase in the crime rate, is normal as a country's level of income rises. In that sense, crime in Russia may be beginning to resemble crime in the developed world.

Bush is BusinessWeek's Moscow bureau chief.