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12.12 City Takes Steps to Conserve Reservoir

12.11 Baltimore's Top 10 Sports Stories of 2007

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11.29 An Uneasy Read

11.28 Reviewing James Petras and Henry Veltmeyer's "Multinationals on Trial"

11.27 Contemporary Lessons from a Tragic Chapter

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12.13 Beyond the point of no return

12.12 Loans to Hunt Oil’s Peruvian Fossil Fuel Project Challenged

11.28 George W. Bush’s ‘Convenient’ Truth

Ref. : Single-Payer FAQ

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Ref. : Global Warming Links

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12.19 War Is Over--Say the Pundits

12.19 Payment-per-Placement for Public Relations: A Dirty Underbelly of Journalism

12.18 Huckabee Chairman Hid Payoff Secret

12.18 Corporate News Means No Real News Where Impeachment is Concerned

12.13 FCC Proposes Greater Media Consolidation

12.11 Gary Webb's Enduring Legacy

12.10 The Lou Dobbs Primary?

12.10 Just Give Us Some Truth!

12.04 US Corporate Media Deliberately Censors the News

11.29 Washington Post Buys into Anti-Obama Bigotry

11.29 News Not Fit to Print: US Coup Planned for Venezuela?

11.27 A Matter of Opinion

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12.20 Stand and Deliver: Democrats Take a Bow

12.17 Police State America - A Look Back and Ahead

12.14 Imagine a Campaign that Called for Slashing Military Spending by 75%

12.12 Advocacy, Intellect, and Common Sense

12.10 Riding a One-Trick Pony

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12.04 Iraq 3.0

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11.30 A Change Ain't Gonna Come: Democrats Openly Embrace Aggression and Torture

11.29 Kucinich and Paul Challenge Their Parties to Take Peace Seriously

11.27 The 'Triumphant' Neocons

11.27 Our Wealth-Oriented Economy: "America, the Beautiful ain't so pretty any more"

11.27 Crackpot Realism Is Riding High

11.21 The Ease Of Fooling Most Of The People Most Of The Time

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12.20 Complicity in the Use of Torture

12.18 Whited Sepulchre: Huckabee's Hook-Up With Reagan-Bush Crimes

12.17 Surprise! Mukasey Covers Up Torture

12.12 3 House Judiciary Members Call for Impeachment of Cheney NOW

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12.04 Eating Iraq: Corruption Rules and Cholera Rises While Insurgents Surf the Surge

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11.26 Annals of Liberation: Killers and Extremists in the Pay of Petraeus

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11.23 Impeachment on the Thanksgiving Table: McClellan's Dish

11.21 The Mystery of Minot: Loose nukes and a cluster of dead airmen raise troubling questions

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11.20 Iraq's Laboratory of Repression

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12.17 Thinking about Sovereigns

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12.10 How The Iranians Stole The Bomb From Israel

12.10 True Aim of Annapolis, and Why It Failed

12.04 Venezuela's Social Democracy Hits A Speed Bump

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11.28 Venezuela’s D-Day: Democratic Socialism or Imperial Counter-Revolution

11.27 Omelettes into Eggs

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11.21 Pakistan, my fatherland, I weep for thee

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  THINKING INFLATION
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ECONOMICS:

THINKING INFLATION

by Fred Cederholm
Inflation has it roots in the excessive liquidity afforded by a US dollar money supply run amok, enhanced by debt-financed consumption when the nominal interest rates are below “the rate of inflation.”
I’ve been thinking about inflation. Actually I’ve been thinking about definitions, indexes, housing, real estate taxes, education, and energy. Inflation is the situation when the prices of things increase - where you end up paying more for the same goods/services; or the price appears to stay the same, but you end up getting less in return. It is commonly defined as “too many dollars chasing too few goods.” Traditionally... it is broken down two ways – cost-push inflation: when driven from the sellers’ side, or demand-pull inflation: when driven from the buyers’ perspective. In both cases, it has it roots in the excessive liquidity afforded by a US dollar money supply run amok, enhanced by debt-financed consumption when the nominal interest rates are below “the rate of inflation.”

You see, the subject of inflation in the news as been rearing its ugly head on a number of fronts – both domestically and internationally. Wall Street and Main Street have finally come to the realization that current economic “truths” have precluded any interest rate cuts on the horizon – if anything, interest rates will be pushed upward. While the US FED has sat tight on rates, central banks elsewhere around the globe have been raising their rates. Inflation is a global problem with many economies (that is, inflation rates) heating up to a point where red flags/sirens abound. The magic US benchmark ceiling for inflation is supposedly just under 3%. If you believe that our domestic price increases have been running below that so-called magic number, dream on. This deflated rate of inflation exists only because so much of what a household really consumes/ buys is conveniently excluded from the core indexes.

How can most housing costs, property tax costs, education costs, insurance costs, food costs, or energy costs be excluded as factors in the inflation computations?

The reported rate of inflation has been intentionally deflated by excluding so much of what households really consume/buy from the core indexes.
Obscene levels of liquidity and cheap money (arbitrarily low interest rates) have fueled many bubbles. For the last ten years, we have witnessed a housing boom unseen in our nation’s history. As prices (or at least expenditures on housing) escalated, the bubble fed on itself. This growth went way beyond the normal needs for family dwellings, as housing came to be looked upon as an investment/speculation and the paper appreciation of The family home became a cash cow to be milked via equity loans to fund expenditures of all kinds. Between 30% to 40% of recent job growth/ expansion has been attributable to the housing boom. The median house price did drop 1.8 percent to $212,300 in the first quarter of 2007, the lowest since 2005, when it was $199,700. This average price for a single-family home has recently fallen in 62 of 145 America’s metropolitan areas. However, this rise in house prices has also impacted the prices of existing and older homes as well, and thereby caused a significant rise in the annual real estate tax bill.

In the past four years the Real Estate taxes on my 100+-year-old property have increased well over $1,500. These taxes now account for over 25% of my total expenditures for the entire year. My various insurance premiums now account for over 15% of my expenditures, and every renewal brings more exclusions/exemptions from the coverage. Energy/utility costs now account for another 20% to 25% of yearly expenditures. My weekly food costs have risen 50% over the past four years for the same items and quantities. I don’t TH*NK my household is that much different from most others in this regard when I figure that my personal inflation rate has been running 12% to 15% per year – a far cry from the official BELOW 3% currently hawked by Uncle $ugar.

Last week I heard from my Alma Mater, the University of Illinois at Urbana, that Fall 2007 tuition would be raised to $204 per credit hour. My total tuition there in Fall 1968 was just over that for the entire two-semester course load of 32 credit hours—a cumulative increase of 3,200% over the 39-year-time period. The State of Illinois’ share in picking up the costs of elementary and secondary education costs has dropped from over 50% to less than 30%, so the schools must reply more on local property taxes to fund education, just as the state universities must rely more on tuition payments.

I also just heard from the gas company that if I wanted to go on the “budget plan,” it would cost me $129.00 a month – up $35 a month, or 37%, from the very same proposal of only just two months ago. What does that say about where energy costs are headed for the coming heating season? An annualized inflation rate of under 3%... who are they kidding?

I’m Fred Cederholm and I’ve been thinking. You should be thinking, too.


Copyright 2007 Questions, Inc. All rights reserved. Fred Cederholm is a CPA/CFE, a forensic accountant, and writer. He is a graduate of the University of Illinois (B.A., M.A. and M.A.S.). He can be reached at asklet@rochelle.net.

Copyright © 2007 The Baltimore Chronicle. All rights reserved.

Republication or redistribution of Baltimore Chronicle content is expressly prohibited without their prior written consent.

This story was published on June 18, 2007.
 
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