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Western Province have done a good job of talking up the Cheetahs' chances but, if the home team do not win Saturday's Currie Cup semifinal at Newlands, then Jake White has his Springbok selections horribly wrong.
With Os du Randt not in the official starting lineup announced by Cheetahs coach Rassie Erasmus, the Cheetahs boast just one regular Springbok starter in Juan Smith.
Province, by contrast, have regular Springbok stars in Jean de Villiers, Joe van Niekerk and skipper Schalk Burger to call on today, while De Wet Barry, Hanyani Shimange and Eddie Andrews were members of the squad that did well in the Tri-Nations, with Barry starting in the final game.
WP also have additional Springboks in the form of Gerrie Britz and Neil de Kock, both players who could conceivably be part of the overseas tour squad. And on the bench are Springboks in Bolla Conradie and Werner Greeff.
| WP comprehensively outplayed the Lions and the Sharks |
The records of the two teams this season also suggest a WP win. Province finished well ahead of the Cheetahs in Section Y, despite having to recover from a stunning defeat by the Boland Cavaliers in Wellington.
While WP comprehensively outplayed the Lions and the Sharks, the Cheetahs lost twice to the Lions and had to fight hard to beat the Sharks. But to predict a comfortable passage for WP to next week's final is to ignore the "Rassie factor".
Although the Cheetahs have not set the Currie Cup alight this season, Erasmus has shown his intelligence and tactical acumen in his first season as a coach at this level.
A couple of times they have punched above their weight, most notably in the home match against the Blue Bulls, when the Cheetahs were desperately unlucky to lose.
Erasmus's influence was already starting to show last season, when the Free Staters won both their matches at Newlands. The previous year the Cheetahs were unlucky to be held to a draw by Province in Cape Town.
There was another match that showed what WP can expect from the Cheetahs today. It was the first-round top-eight clash with the Sharks in Durban. The Sharks had not lost a match and were shaping up as real challengers for a semifinal spot, but the Cheetahs played a clever game to negate all the Sharks strengths. The Cheetahs spoiled like their lives depended on it.
Sharks coach Dick Muir said afterwards that the Cheetahs had won the game with their intelligence.
Make no mistake, if Jean de Villiers and company get ball to play with, WP should advance to the final. But watch out for that Cheetahs defensive screen; watch out for their clever tricks in contesting the ball on the ground and closing down the WP halfbacks; watch out for new scrumming tactics and expect the Cheetahs to push the limits of the law with referee Tappe Hanning.
All of this could get under WP's skin. If it does, the WP coach might be right in predicting that this will be one that will go down to the wire, in which case WP will have to contend with Willem de Waal's boot. Now that doesn't sound like such a cake-walk.
By Kevin mccallum
After a week of bluff, double bluff, talking up the opposition and talking down the influence of the crowd and ground, the fate of the second of this afternoon's Absa Currie Cup semi-finals will be left in the strong hands of two of the pivotal players of this year's competition.
Wikus van Heerden and Anton Leonard are not players who are fond of bluffing. For them, rugby is a physical contest of hard, straight running, harder, straight-up tackling and then arguing the toss over who played the prettier rugby later.
Rugby, despite what the marketers would have us believe, is not a beautiful game - it is a dutiful game with a work ethic embodied by the two captains who will lead their men on to the field at Loftus this afternoon.
Their influence on the Lions and the Blue Bulls, the two best South African teams this year, was recognised by their inclusion in the five nominees for the Absa Currie Cup Player of the Year, who will be named on October 25.
By then we will know which one of them was more influential than the other. Naas Botha said this week that the Blue Bulls were a different team without Leonard and, indeed, they have been a little wayward when he has been off the park.
The same can be said for the Lions, who were shaky against the Leopards in a Premier League match until Van Heerden, who was being rested by Frans Ludeke, was brought on and stamped his authority on the game.
He is a player who relishes the big games - who can read the critical moments and can gauge the mood of his team. The Lions, he said, were looking forward to their short trip up to Pretoria.
"It's a great motivating factor for us to go to Loftus," said Van Heerden.
"Our guys have lots of experience and as it's the second semi-final for us at Loftus, we know what to expect. It's a semi-final, you don't have to pysche guys up for a semi-final. They know what's at stake - we either step into the final or it's the end of the season."
A sobering thought, to be sure, but one that will strike a chord with those who were at Loftus last year when the Lions staged a mighty comeback in the second half.
Schalk Brits thundered over for a try one minute into the second half to give the Lions the lead for the first time in the match. He scored another with a diving, one-handed Superman celebration that was referred to the TV ref for fear he had dropped the ball.
In between, though, the Blue Bulls scrummed the Lions off the ball in their own 22 and Leonard picked up the ball as it spurted out of a mangled Lions' scrum and scored an easy try.
A year on, the Lions, said Van Heerden, are wiser than before.
"We know their players. They're the opponents that everyone wants us to beat. We simply have to go out and show that we can do it."
If the Lions are to win they will be relying heavily on the confidence and calm that flows from André Pretorius, Jaque Fourie and Conrad Jantjes. Even more, though, the Lions will be counting on the leadership of their captain.
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