IN THE WEEKS and months that led up to November 2nd, a small minority of Egyptian intellectuals began quietly making the case that four more years of Bussh might not be such a bad thing. Their argument was that the increasing pressure to democratize that the Bush administration was exerting on its authoritarian allies in the Middle East would lose momentum if Kerry were to be elected.

Political scientists, though, are skeptical about how well this theory will hold up under the current circumstances.

“The US has to tread softly on this issue because America is dependant on these regimes. It’s an awkward situation. I think we will continue seeing quiet pressure behind the scenes. For example, pressure to alter the education system in countries like Saudi Arabia are likely to intensify. It will be more of an attempt to shore up regimes that have already taken a reformist path rather than attempting to change them completely. The US initially thought they could turn Iraq into a showpiece but of course that hasn’t worked out so far,” says Glenn Johnson, chair of AUC’s Al-Walid bin Talal Center for American Studies.

“America’s attitude towards dealing with the Middle East is really intriguing. Dictators are turned into allies overnight. It all depends on whether or not the country in question is playing by the rules,” adds Manar El-Shorbagy, academic director at the Talal Center. As she sees it, Bush is not interested in democracy per se, but in reshaping the area by force or at best by some serious arm-twisting.

AUC political scientist Walid Kazziha believes that the whole democracy debate is irrelevant because whether or not America believes that the authoritarian regimes in the Arab world are the breeding ground for future terrorists and is interested in having true democracy in the Middle East, it will not happen.

“The US thinks that it has achieved success in Afghanistan, but it is very limited to Kabul. In Iraq, this situation has escalated to a full-blown sectarian war between the Sunnis and the Shi’a. The primary concern there is now security, not democracy. The Arab public in general is not well disposed to democratization, especially when it comes at the hands of the Americans. It’s just not doable. Any democratic changes in Egypt or any other Arab country that come about as a result of US pressure will be at best cosmetic,” says Kazziha.

“You need constituencies before you can have democracy, and we have none. We are still too preoccupied with nationalistic issues. I can go outside right now and shout, ‘Palestine, Palestine!’ and I will get crowds to chant and yell behind me, but if I go out and bellow, ‘Democracy,’ they will ask, ‘Who is this crazy person shouting in the street?’”  et