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Hurricane Predictions for 2004

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A hurricane hits the shores.
BBC Broadcast Meteorologist Susan Powell looks back at the 2003 season and at what we can expect in 2004.

Key Points
  • 2003 was one of the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record.
  • 16 storms developed, seven of which made hurricane strength and three became major hurricanes.
  • 13 named storms are forecast to develop in 2004.
  • There is also increased probability of a major hurricane making landfall in 2004.
Also in this Series

Hurricanes
Hurricane Isabel in 2003
Hurricane Seasons
Naming Hurricanes

External Web Links

National Hurricane Center


Disclaimer
The BBC is not responsible for the content of external websites.

The Atlantic Hurricane season runs from 1 June to 30 November each year.

As 2003 drew to a close, storm forecasters looked back at the year's busy hurricane season and made predictions for what was in store for the next 12 months.

The 2003 season got off to an early start, when tropical storm Ana formed in April more than a month in advance of the official start date of the 1st of June.

2003 was one of the busiest years on record...
2003 was one of the busiest years on record - seeing a total of 16 storms, of which seven made hurricane strength and three became major hurricanes (Fabian, Isabel and Kate). The Atlantic-Caribbean hurricane season officially ends on the 30 of November.

However, after then a further two tropical storms developed - this was the first time this had been known since 1887!

'Odette' developed in the Caribbean sea during the first week of December and tracked towards the Dominican Republic bringing lashings of rain and triggering flash flooding and landslides.

'Peter' formed in the eastern Atlantic ocean the following week and strengthened rapidly. Although it was a threat only to shipping interests the storm still managed to pack winds of up to 70mph for a time. This was the sixteenth storm of the season.

So what lies in store for 2004? The Department of Atmospheric Science in Colorado State Univerisity, which specialises in the longterm forecasting of Atlantic basin storms, is already pointing to 2004 being another very active year with the overall activity being 25% above average.

13 named storms are forecast to develop (average 9.6) with seven forecast to reach hurricanes strength (average 5.9). There is also increased probability of a major hurricane making landfall in the coming year.

If these forecasts hold true we can certainly expect some dramatic weather scenes for 2004.





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