Today's job hunting advice is the same ol' junk you've been hearing
for two years -- update your resume, network like crazy -- but the context is
far different.
Now the advice is aimed at people who want to move up, not those struggling
to survive. Yes, the economy is still ugly, but the job market appears likely
to improve by the end of the year.
And yes, I know people were saying that in July 2001, but Sept. 11 knocked
all sorts of predictions out of whack. Now, though, unless we have some other
catastrophe, it's due to improve.
I'm not the only optimist. Outplacement expert John Challenger, who has
been tracking job cut announcements for 10 years and surveying managerial and
executive job hunters since 1986, expects the market to rebound by the end of
the year. And stock prices are finally starting to bounce back, a sign that
investors are optimistic.
Challenger said job searches by unemployed managers and executives dropped
from a 17-year record high of 4.2 months in the first quarter of this year to
3.4 months in the second quarter -- the lowest level since the end of 2001. He
said those surveys usually predict how the job market will change six months
or so later.
"Most companies will begin hiring from the top down, getting key management
roles filled in order to navigate the recovery," said Challenger, the chief
executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an outplacement firm. "Six
months from now, we will probably start seeing a significant pickup in hiring
of full-time workers at lower levels."
He added that temporary jobs rose for the second month in a row in June,
and monthly job cut announcements in May and June averaged about half as much
as in the first four months of the year.
Often, too, the economy just depends on people's gut feelings. I keep going
back to what Richard Bolles said in a February interview: "The key to a
recovery is optimism."
Bolles, an East Bay resident and author of "What Color Is Your Parachute?"
and several other career books, figured this would be a bad year because so
many companies were pessimistic. And he has been right.
But now the stock market and Challenger's figures have traces of optimism.
(You might have to look that word up in the dictionary; it's been awhile.)
Just in case, be prepared. Sometimes the best job opportunities are right
at the end of a recession, because so many people are shell-shocked that they
won't take the risk when jobs do open up.
Network now so you hear about potential openings before they're advertised.
Focus on your ideal companies. When businesses feel optimistic and the right
person comes along, sometimes they create jobs rather than waiting for
positions to open up.
One warning, though: If you were lucky and talented enough to land a good
job during the boom and keep it through the bust, don't expect employers to
throw money at you the way they did then. Even a promotion might not mean a
huge raise for the moment, but at least try to negotiate a salary review for
six months later, when the job market ought to be even better.
