Duel in the Superdome

Rams will down Saints to close in on NFC home field

You might think the Saints would feel good about the circumstances Monday night. After all, they're at home to play the Rams, a team they've already beaten once this season and three times in their past four meetings. But the indoor surface should suit the speedy St. Louis attack, and don't forget the Rams have the best road record in the NFL at 6-0.

New Orleans will need to step up its scoring pace. That means Aaron Brooks will be looking for Joe Horn early and often. Horn has emerged as one of the league's premier go-to guys. Cornerback Aeneas Williams will likely draw Horn in one of the game's critical matchups.

The key is establishing Ricky Williams as soon as possible and force the Rams to defend the run first. Williams has blossomed into the player the Saints hoped he would be, but he'll be facing a St. Louis defense that has given up the third-fewest points in the NFC.

Marshall Faulk returns home to New Orleans where he always tries to give his friends and family a great performance. The problem for New Orleans is that Faulk is as dangerous coming out of the backfield as a receiver as he is running the ball. He leads the Rams in receptions. No linebacker in the league can cover this guy. The best bet is a safety, so look for Jay Bellamy to get the call Monday night.

Of course, Faulk isn't the only receiving threat that the Saints need to worry about. Eight Rams caught passes last week. The most popular way of trying to defend Kurt Warner's air attack has been to keep the receivers in front of the secondary with a soft zone and then come up and be physical after the ball is thrown. But not much of anything has worked against St. Louis, the NFL's top-scoring team with an average of 30 points a game.

I know the Saints don't fear the Rams, but I can't see St. Louis losing twice to the same team this season. I like the Rams to move one step closer to having home-field advantage throughout the playoffs by winning their 11th game of the year in typical high-scoring fashion.

Pat Kirwan, who spent 12 years as a pro football coach, scout and personnel administrator, is an NFL analyst for CNN/Sports Illustrated and a regular contributor to CNNSI.com.

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